Teams will get wild on Wild Card Weekend. Let’s make DraftKings lineups.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Favorite
New Orleans Saints (-500; -10) vs. Chicago Bears (+400)
The Saints are the biggest favorite on the slate as they host the Bears on Sunday. When these teams previously met earlier this season, the Saints squeaked out a 23-20 victory, which the Bears covered the +5.5 spread and the over 41 points hit. People aren’t giving the Bears much of a chance here but since Mitchell Trubisky ($5,300) returned as starting quarterback, this offense is averaging 30.1 points per game. Granted, the Saints are looking to be back at full strength, with the likely returns of Alvin Kamara ($8,500) and Michael Thomas ($6,400), giving Drew Brees ($5,700) his full arsenal of weapons.
From a betting perspective, the Bears are a favorite target of mine. I love using them in six-point teasers, pushing them to +16 and pairing them with the Bills, who you would get down to -0.5. The Saints enter this game 9-7 ATS overall but in games where Brees was the starter, they are only 6-6. My biggest concern here is that what’s been the Bears’ strength of late, David Montgomery ($6,900), will be in a very tough matchup. He ran for 89 yards on 21 carries in the first meeting and only 16 yards on five catches. He’ll need to be a lot more efficient this time around if the Bears want the upset. Regardless, if using them as a teaser piece or even taking the +10 points, I do like the Bears to cover.
Other notable favorites: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-375; -8) vs. Washington Football Team (+310), Buffalo Bills (-278; -6.5) vs. Indianapolis Colts (+240)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Baltimore Ravens (-3.5; 29.5 points) vs. Tennessee Titans (25.5 points): 55.5 points
The Titans ended the regular season tied for the best team at hitting the over on their game total, going 12-3-1 along with the Raiders. The Titans did have the advantage by the average margin of covering by +7.7 points. They were the only team in the league to cover by over seven points while the Vikings were second at +6.7. When these teams met earlier this season, the game went in favor of the Titans 30-24, not only covering the over of 50.5 points but earning a win for the +6 dogs of the Titans.
I think this total is a tad bit inflated so I’d be hesitant to take the over. The best way to beat the Titans is against their swiss cheese secondary but naturally, the Ravens opt to run the ball way more. Lamar Jackson ($7,800) continues to improve as a passer but even in the prior matchup, he threw for only 186 yards on 17 completions. Deviating from what’s worked all season long would be odd for the Ravens, so I’m having a hard time liking the over in this one. If it starts to come down a bit, I could have some interest but at 55.5, I think the value has been lost for the time being, especially when you consider the Ravens were 7-9 at hitting the over.
Wild Card Weekend No Brainer
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DVP Matchups
Worst QB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, 14.8, 1st
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, 15.6, 2nd
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team 17.4, 4th
Best QB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans 23.4, 28th
Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, 22.2, 27th
Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns 21.7, 24th
Worst RB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Chicago Bears, New Orleans Saints, 18.1, 1st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team, 19.1, T-2nd
Cleveland Browns, Pittsburgh Steelers, 19.1, T-2nd
Best RB Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Baltimore Ravens, Tennesse Titans, 26.4, 26th
Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills, 24.5, 18th
Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, 24.2, 17th
Worst WR Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams 28.7, 1st
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team, 32.2, 2nd
Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens, 33,4, 5th
Best WR Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Baltimore Ravens, Tennessee Titans, 46.4 31st
Los Angeles Rams, Seattle Seahawks, 44.8, 29th
Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns 40.5, T-22nd
Worst TE Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
Cleveland Browns Pittsburgh Steelers, 9,1, 2nd
Buffalo Bills, Indianapolis Colts, 10.6, 5th
Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Washington Football Team, 11.3, T-8th
Best TE Matchups
Team, Opponent, PTS/G Allowed, Rank
New Orleans Saints, Chicago Bears, 15.8, 31st
Indianapolis Colts, Buffalo Bills, 15, T-28th
Pittsburgh Steelers, Cleveland Browns, 15, T-28th
DraftKings Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts, $7,500 — When we think about the Colts, defense was one of their strengths. However, as the season progressed, that was talked about less and less and it’s an area I think the Bills are prepared to exploit. In the final four weeks of the season against Derek Carr, Deshaun Watson, Ben Roethlisberger and Mike Glennon, they averaged 322 passing yards allowed with nine total touchdowns thrown. They also combined to allow 70% of their total pass attempts to be completed. Then, of course, we know how efficient Allen has been, even putting up 20.3 DKFP in a half against the Dolphins. The Colts’ pass rush also ranks around league average and if they want to disrupt Allen, it’s pivotal they get pressure on him. When he’s working with a clean pocket, he boasts a league-leading 85.8% adjusted completion percentage with 25 of his 37 touchdowns.
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts, $7,700 — It doesn’t look as if Diggs is in any real danger of missing this game but he is listed as questionable with an oblique injury. Assuming he’s in, he’ll draw one of the best matchups in coverage against CB T.J. Carrie. In coverage, Carrie has been targeted against 36 times, allowing 20 receptions for an average of 14.3 YPR. For a player that is accounting for 29% of the total targets and 19% of the red zone targets, both of which lead the league, he’s the guy you want. Not that you didn’t know that already but hey, I have to guide you even if it’s obvious.
Top Running Back To Consider
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, $6,700 — Again, another matchup where it seems daunting but quite frankly is better than you’d expect. Chubb just faced the Steelers last week and went for 108 yards on just 14 carries. It’s been a common them as of late, as the Steelers’ once stout run defense has been an issue. Chubb continues to be one of the hardest backs to bring down, as his 4.06 average yards after contact per attempt ended as the best in the league, edging out Derrick Henry ($9,200), who was at 3.94. We’ve also seen Chubb take the lead in red zone carries after Kareem Hunt ($4,800) dominated that in the first half of the season. Since returning in Week 10, Chubb has averaged 52% of the red zone carries while Hunt is at just 27%.
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