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Fantasy Football Picks: Bills vs. Colts DraftKings NFL DFS Saturday Showdown Strategy for Wild Card Weekend

Stan Son preps you for Saturday’s 1:05 p.m. ET NFL contest between the Bills and Colts with DraftKings lineup strategy and Captain’s picks.

For this week, we have a matchup between the Indianapolis Colts (11-5) visiting the Buffalo Bills (13-3). DraftKings Sportsbook has the Bills favored by 6.5 points with the over/under at a healthy 51 points. The Bills are 7-1 at home and have reeled off six-straight victories, while the Colts are 5-3 away from the friendly confines of Lucas Oil Stadium.

Can the Bills take that next step after losing in the Wild Card round last year or will the underdog Colts circle the wagons and gallop off with a victory? Let’s dig in from a DraftKings Showdown perspective and find out.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $150K Showdown Special [$50K to 1st] (IND vs BUF)



Buffalo Bills vs. Indianapolis Colts

SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Josh Allen ($19,200 CP) - The Bills have the highest implied total on the weekend at 29.5, so points are going to flow like the Nile River. They are ranked 3rd in pass DVOA and 22nd in rush DVOA, and are passing at a 60.25% clip on the season, good for 13th in the NFL.

The Colts are 9th in rush defense DVOA and 8th in pass defense DVOA but they are much more exploitable through the air. On the season, the Colts have allowed 1,448 yards on 390 attempts on the ground, good for a 3.7 yards per attempt and second-stingiest in the league. The pass defense, on the other hand, has allowed 3,866 yards on 562 attempts, good for 6.9 yards per attempt, which places them middle of the pack.

Translation: Colts are good at stopping the run while the Bills are bad at running and prefer to throw the ball anyway. Colts aren’t great in pass defense, so if the Bills are going to score points, it’s most likely through the air.

What makes Allen great is the rushing equity he provides. On the season, he’s rushed 102 times for 421 yards and eight touchdowns, with 24 of those in the red zone.

On the season, Allen is averaging 27.25 DKFP per game but has seven games above 30 with one 40-burger. The price is high but the floor/ceiling combo is unmatched.

Stefon Diggs ($17,700 CP) - Can you Diggs it? No? I’ll see myself out now. Since the Bills are likeliest to attack the Colts through the air, then Diggs becomes a viable play for the Captain slot. He’s expensive as well, but you do get a $1,500 discount from Allen. On the season, he’s garnered 168 targets and could have more looks funneled his way if Cole Beasley (knee) is unable to play.

Nyheim Hines ($9,600 CP) - Choosing a Captain from the Colts' perspective is a tough one. The Bills are more susceptible to the ground game, which would make Jonathan Taylor ($16,500 CP) the likely choice, but I have a difficult time paying so much for someone who could get affected substantially by game script. Philip Rivers ($15,000 CP) is the next obvious choice since the probabilities of increased passing attempts are likely.

Here’s the thing, though. Rivers has eclipsed 20 DKFP just three times all season! In the past four games, he’s gone for 11.36, 12.8, 17.02, and 17.76 DKFP.

Enter Hines. Now, his ceiling on snap share is likely in the 40% range when Taylor is healthy, but he garners carries and those juicy PPR points from Rivers, who loves to throw to the running back position. The Bills are also good in the secondary, especially on the boundaries, so the middle of the field and checkdowns will be there. On the season, the Bills have allowed the 13th-most receptions and 11th-most receiving yards to running backs.

Finally, Hines is very much involved in the red zone, as he has 39 opportunities on the season, which is only 15 fewer than Taylor.

Is this play rock solid? Definitely not, but I like the cost savings from Taylor and Rivers and it provides direct leverage from, what will likely be, high ownership on Taylor.


FLEX Plays

Zach Pascal ($4,400) - Pascal leads the Colts in snaps on the season with 834. Over the past three weeks, he’s played 87%, 88%, and 84% of the snaps. He is second on the team with 71 targets and has received four, six, and six over the past three games. What’s most intriguing about Pascal is that he leads all wide receivers with 14 red zone looks. Granted, many of them came earlier in the season, but he’s had four games with two red zone looks and one game with three.

Pascal runs 75% of his routes from the slot, where he will be matched up with Taron Johnson, who is good but not Tre’Davious White. If the Colts are forced to throw often, then the middle of the field is the most likely place they will attack.

Dawson Knox ($3,800) - The Colts have been good against tight ends this season, as they’ve allowed the fifth-fewest points against the position. This week, though, much of the attention will likely go to Allen and Diggs, which could leave some openings in the middle of their zone.

On the season, Knox has only garnered 43 targets, but over the past four weeks, he’s received seven, four, four, and eight targets. Over that same span, he’s played in 80%, 55%, 64%, and 72% of the snaps while notching two red zone looks.

Jack Doyle ($2,600) - It’s a three-headed monster at tight end for the Colts, but they do run plenty of two-tight end formations. Over the past four games, Doyle has led the snaps with 69%, 76%, 55%, and 64% while receiving three, six, two, and three targets.

The Bills are the fifth-most generous in allowing fantasy points to the tight end position.

I know. It’s not sexy and the volume is thin, but the Colts may have to throw and it’s tough to attack the Bills on the perimeter.


Fades

Jonathan Taylor ($11,000) - This call comes down to ownership for me. If he’s highly owned, then it’s an easy fade because there are definable paths to not producing up to cost. What if the Bills jump out to a two-touchdown lead? It’s likely we see more Hines and hurry-up offense. Even if the game stays close, red zone touchdowns can go to one of the tight ends or Pascal. Taylor could have a 20-rush, 90-yard game with zero touchdowns.

If ownership is low, though, then I don’t mind Taylor but would put him in the Captain spot. It’s within the range of outcomes that Taylor has a monster game against a suspect Bills rush defense with the Colts’ defense limiting Allen.


THE OUTCOME

I respect Frank Reich and his coaching staff but the Bills’ offense is humming right now, and I don’t think the Colts’ defense will be able to slow them down. Rivers is capable of slinging but that increases the risk of interceptions and a pick-six. The Bills avenge last season’s Wild Card exit and move up the ladder to the next round.

Final Score: Buffalo 34, Indianapolis 24

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $150K Showdown Special [$50K to 1st] (IND vs BUF)


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