SOMEONE had to come out of the NFC East and the Washington Football Team was that team. They’ll take on the Bucs in the final game of the Saturday three-game slate and I’m here to help you build them DraftKings lineups.
Follow me on Twitter, NOW: @SBuchanan24.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers: WR Mike Evans (questionable)
Washington Football Team: QB Alex Smith (questionable), WR Terry McLaurin (questionable), RB Antonio Gibson (questionable)
Antonio Brown ($13,800 CP) — I’ll admit, this is a tough game to find a captain we feel overly confident in, so hitting on the right guy, more than ever, will be crucial. I also believe ownership will be vastly spread out in this spot so I wouldn’t worry about that aspect when building. I do like Brown in this spot and even more so if Mike Evans ($14,100 CP) is active, which is trending in that direction. Brown and Tom Brady ($16,200) have been on the same page for weeks now and that really showed last week against the the Falcons where Brown had a 11/138/2 line. This was mostly done after Evans exited with his knee injury but I wouldn’t be surprised if that type of rapport continued here.
If Evans is active, decoy or not, it’ll put CB Kendall Fuller on Brown. I like this matchup a lot and think Brown can succeed here. In coverage, Fuller has been targeted against 68 times, allowing 36 receptions and 12 YPR. While the catch-rate is low (53%), Brown has one of the better yards after catch per reception averages in the league at 5.6. Brown has also seen 11 targets of 20+ yards, which would rank him fourth on the Bucs. What makes this all the more impressive is that he’s done that through eight games. Evans leads the team with 23 through 16.
Logan Thomas ($9,900 CP) — The best value at captain, in my opinion, is Thomas. It’s a good matchup for him against a Bucs defense that against tight ends has allowed an average of 14 DKFP, 52 receiving yards and nine touchdowns scored. Regardless of who has been under center, Thomas has been a focal point of this offense, drawing 19.1% of the targets overall and a team-leading 29.3% in the red zone. In seven games that Alex Smith ($13,500 CP) has started, Thomas has nine red zone targets.
The Buccaneers’ secondary has taken a major step back from where they were in the first half of the season but it’s also fair to say that the Football Team’s success hasn’t been built on their offense. It’s been the defense that has gotten them to where they are, as they’ve held opposing teams to an average of 17.5 points over the final five weeks of the season. Nonetheless, Smith is comfortable going to his TE1 who is running a route on 91.8% of his snaps, which is one of the highest marks in the league.
Other to consider: Ronald Jones ($10,800)
Cam Sims ($4,400) — Sims has emerged as the clear WR2 on this team that once upon a time belonged to Dontrelle Inman before he was released. In games without Inman either due to injury or after his release, Sims played on 90.3% of the snaps and drew 13.4% of the targets. However, his role has increased quite a bit as of late, as his target distribution rose to 17.2% over the final three weeks. He’s certainly not priced like a WR2 and if you’re in the belief that the Football Team will be playing from behind, as the +8 line on DraftKings Sportsbook indicates, you’re not going to get a better volume play on this slate.
J.D. McKissic ($5,400) — This is another player I’ll like more if someone else is active, with this player being Antonio Gibson ($8,000). When you’re rostering McKissic, it’s not for his ground work, it’s the PPR points through the air. With our without Gibson, McKissic was averaging 19% of the teams targets. His 6.9 targets per game was the second-best in the league, trailing only Alvin Kamara at 7.1. Don’t get me wrong, Gibson will also see a couple of targets out of the backfield, but we’ve seen McKissic line up either wide or in the slot on 31% of his snaps.
Ryan Succop ($3,800) — I really hate writing up kickers but I truly think Succop is very much in play this week. The Football Team’s defensive line is stellar and they’re going to give Brady trouble. While Brady has only been under pressure on 24% of his dropbacks, it’s lead him to sport a 58% adjusted completion percentage and 5.2 YPA in that scenario, both of which are among the worst in the league. Those numbers put him in the same company as Broncos QB Drew Lock and Eagles backup QB Carson Wentz.
With this in mind, Succop could be busy in this one. This truly could end up being a tough game scoring wise for both sides, so it could be relied upon on the kickers a bit more. He’s averaging 3.5 XPA and just under two field goal attempts per game, so at this price point, he could certainly hit value. It’s gross but this is how this game is shaping up.
Alex Smith ($9,000) — We’ve heard rumblings that the Football Team may implement a Saints game plan, where both Smith and Taylor Heinicke ($6,000) would be getting in the action. When you add that in with the fact that Smith has also been limited in practice, he’s simply someone I don’t want to drop $9K on, especially when you consider Brown is only $200 more and Terry McLaurin ($8,800) is $200 less. In big field tournaments, Smith is in play on the hopes he take the majority of snaps and can collect a few touchdowns but aside from that, he carries too much risk at his price point.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL). Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ/WV/PA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (NH/CO), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA) or TN REDLINE: 800-889-9789. 21+ (18+ NH). NJ/PA/WV/NH/IN/NH/IA/CO/IL/TN only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.