The NFL Postseason is here, and we get a brand new format with six games on the opening weekend! With more than ever to bet on in the NFL playoffs, here are a few plays that stand out most on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Wild Card Weekend No Brainer
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The Saints and Bucs are the two biggest favorites of the weekend, but these are the two spots I feel most confident in backing. As 6-6.5-point favorites, this works perfectly for a tease or a moneyline parlay at standard juice — whichever one is giving you the better odds at the time you place your wager.
It’s the first game of the weekend and the last one, so we have to wait to sweat it out, but these are home teams in great spots. Buffalo is the hottest team in the NFL right now, not only winning six straight but all by double-digits (the Bills’ past seven victories overall are by 10-plus). The offense should be able to shred a regressing Indy defense, and while the Colts won’t lay down, I can’t trust them to get this one on the road. Jonathan Taylor will be a key to the game on the ground, and I have interest in his rushing prop if it isn’t juiced at -150. But Philip Rivers is not a good QB in the cold and will make mistakes in a hostile environment. The Bills will be amped to get a handful of fans in the stands for this game. Too much damage through the air for the Colts to handle.
Meanwhile, the Steelers were a team I was almost sure I’d be fading in the first round of the playoffs. That loss to the Bengals was ugly, but the Steelers showed a lot of heart in the comeback win over the Colts. The reality is that this offense isn’t as bad as it’s been lately. The offense helped get this team to 11-0 for a reason. But this is really about the Browns not being ready for this game. It’s been 18 years since they made the postseason, and it feels kind of like the Bills last season — a learning experience before ultimately collapsing. The coach has COVID, multiple offensive linemen have COVID and players were out drag racing this week. Plus, they’re on the road in Pittsburgh again, playing a division rival that owns them for the third time this season. The Browns squeaked out a two-point win at home in essentially a playoff win against the Pittsburgh backups last week. They also lost 38-7 in Pittsburgh earlier in the season. I just don’t see it happening.
This is another tough divisional game to gauge. Both of the regular season meetings went under, and the teams split the games. The most recent meeting was in Seattle with the division on the line, and the ’Hawks took the 20-9 win, which was also the last game we saw Jared Goff in. The Rams have a spectacular defense, and the Seahawks went from giving up 30 points per game the first half of the season to 15 points per game the second half of the season. I lean under but feel the bigger advantage is backing the home team now that this number has dropped from -4.5 to -3.
Los Angeles will either roll Goff out there with a thumb injury that he was only able to get the Rams to nine points with last time in Seattle or we’ll again see John Wolford — who scored just 18 points last week with a defensive touchdown and a safety. I have to trust Russell Wilson to be able to do enough to grind this one out.
Once Henry ripped off 215 rushing yards against Jacksonville, I pretty much committed to just backing his overs. They always look dangerously high, and you think that he’ll probably get it but pass. Just bet the number and trust he’ll rip off some big ones. Last week he literally doubled his 125-yard prop with 250 yards against Houston. Earlier this year, Henry rushed for 28-133-1 against Baltimore, so the matchup shouldn’t scare you off. Last year in Baltimore in the playoffs he ripped off 195 yards. His rushing attempt prop is set at 26.5, so we know he’s going to get massive volume. This is a tough game with a road favorite, and I actually do lean Baltimore but feel this is the best bet for the game. If Tennessee wins, you have to think Henry hits this prop, but he can also easily get there in a loss. This play covers more outcomes.
I’m pretty shocked at how much Conner is being slept on this weekend. I already shared how I feel about the game, but the game script sets up very positive as a home favorite regardless of your thoughts. Conner is a terrific $5,000 value on the DFS slate and a great value in the rushing prop market. Conner didn’t need to be a big part of the game plan last week in a meaningless game in Cleveland but still carried nine times for 37 yards. You’d think the volume should be closer to 15 carries here, making this number easily obtainable. The previous matchup at home against the Browns was Conner’s third 100-yard rushing game of the season, finishing with a 20-101-1 line. Getting half that this time around feels too light.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jedlow) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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