You came here to see my targets for Sunday’s three-game slate. So, I will tell you what they are.
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Lamar Jackson, Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, $7,800 — The highest upside on the slate, naturally belongs to Jackson. In a perfect world, the Ravens would fall behind in this game early, forcing the Ravens quarterback to throw, which is how you beat the Titans. Their secondary is absolutely putrid but in their prior matchup, Jackson only threw for 186 yards on 17 completions. If he is forced to throw, Jackson has been excellent with a clean pocket, boasting a 77% adjusted completion percentage, 7.4 YPA and 21 of his 26 touchdowns. The Titans offer very little pass rush and in Week 11, had Jackson under pressure on 10 of his 34 dropbacks, or 29%.
Mitch Trubisky, Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints, $5,300 — This isn’t the best matchup for Trubisky, as the Saints, defensively, have been great this season. The game-script, however, does favor him. I think the Bears are going to struggle running the ball against this tough defensive line, so Trubisky could be forced to throw early and often. He has been already, averaging 35 pass attempts since taking back the starter’s role. He also works his legs, although maybe not as often as we’d like. While he only has one rushing TD, he has run in the red zone at least once in four of those six games as the stater.
Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens, $9,200 — For me, if the Titans want to win this game, they’ll want to keep Jackson on the sideline as much as possible. Working the clock with Henry is obviously the ideal strategy to do that. In Week 11, Henry ran for 133 yards on 28 carries, averaging out to 4.8 YPC and 3.61 per attempt after contact. The only fear here is if the Titans fall behind, forcing them to pass. In his last game, the Titans came away with the win as +6 underdogs, allowing Henry to run plenty. In the five games that the Titans lost this season, Henry is averaging 89.6 rushing yards and 19 carries per game.
Other Options – Nick Chubb ($6,700)
Gus Edwards, Baltimore Ravens at Tennessee Titans, $4,400 – I think this is the third week in a row I’ve put Edwards in as a cheap play but why stop now? J.K. Dobbins ($6,600) is the lead back in this offense but Edwards gets enough run to use as well. Edwards has double-digit carries in back-to-back weeks and is almost evenly splitting the red zone work. Over the past month, Dobbins has taken 12 carries in the red zone while Edwards is at 11. If Edwards can cash in on one of these carries, you’d be in a great position as the ownership should be heavily weighted toward Dobbins.
Other Options – James Conner ($5,000)
Allen Robinson, Chicago Bears at New Orleans Saints, $6,500 — This is the cheapest we’ve seen Robinson since Week 12 against the Packers. As massive underdogs, the Bears should be throwing the ball in this one, which means plenty of targets for Robinson. In games started by Trubisky, Robinson is averaging 9.6 targets with 15 in the red zone. Those 15 RZ targets account for 78% of his season total. Robinson has seen 10 red-zone targets since Week 12 when Trubisky returned while no one else has seen more than six. In coverage, he’ll draw CB Marshon Lattimore, who is allowing only a 58.2% catch rate but 14 YPR on those receptions.
Other Options – Diontae Johnson ($6,200)
Corey Davis, Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens, $4,800 – Davis saw plenty of looks last week, drawing 11 targets but could only corral five of them for 39 yards. Quick math tells me that was #notgood. That said, I like his matchup this week. He went ham against this secondary in Week 11, catching five of his seven targets for 113 yards and 19.3 DKFP. He did most of his damage against CB Marcus Peters, who allowed Davis to catch all three targets against him for 83 yards, 38 of which came after the catch. Peters should be on Davis again and is arguably the weakest corner the Ravens have right now. Allowing a 62.8% catch rate and 13 YPR, this is a great bounce-back for Davis.
Other Options – Anthony Miller ($3,300; if Darnell Mooney is ruled out), Chase Claypool ($5,200)
Jared Cook, New Orleans Saints vs. Chicago Bears, $4,600 – I’d like to play no tight ends honestly but Cook does have a really good matchup ahead of him. He’s been producing in waves this season and with Brees active, Cook is averaging 4.3 targets per game. I know, you didn’t just fall over in your chair with that number but it’s good enough at his price point. The Bears statistically have been one of the worst defenses against opposing tight ends, allowing 15.8 DKFP, 58.2 receiving yards and 12 touchdowns. Cook went 5/51/1 in the prior matchup in Week 8, producing 16.1 DKFP. Getting that type of game here on Sunday would be magnificent.
David Njoku, Cleveland Browns at Pittsburgh Steelers, $2,800 – If you totally want to punt the position, Njoku is the guy to do it with. Njoku ended up seeing five targets last week against the Steelers but could only turn it into two receptions for 13 yards. Nothing great but we don’t need him to do much at this salary. Of those five targets, three of them came in the red zone, so hitting paydirt would be incredible at his low projected ownership.
Pittsburgh Steelers D/ST vs. Cleveland Browns, $3,600 – I don’t really want to pay up for a D/ST this week but to be fair, the Steelers have done very well against Mayfield. In the two games they’ve faced him, they’ve had him under pressure on 41% of his dropbacks. Generating that type of pressure will be pivotal, as he’s averaging just 4.5 YPA in those situations. If you have the extra salary, this is worth using, otherwise, I would drop down to the Bears ($2,800).
Other Option – Chicago Bears ($2,800)
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