It’s Week 4 in the NFL, and I’m back again to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to be betting on Jimmy Garoppolo to keep it up, along with a few skill position players in favorable matchups. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Arizona Cardinals at Los Angeles Rams
Robert Woods over 59.5 receiving yards (-115)
Woods loves seeing the Arizona Cardinals on the schedule. He has racked up 640 yards in eight career games against Arizona, good for over 80 yards per game. While Cooper Kupp is heavily involved in the game plan these days, I expect Woods to be featured heavily on short passes and gadget plays given the Cards’ excellent pass rush. He should also match up with Robert Alford, who is the guy to target on this defense if you have to pick an outside corner. Woods hasn’t had that breakout game yet this year but it sure feels like it’s coming, and it should be right here against a familiar opponent.
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Tennessee Titans at New York Jets
Zach Wilson over 221.5 passing yards (-115)
I know, I know. What are we doing?
Well, this is the perfect buy-low spot on Wilson; I don’t think you’ll get a prop this low again. He’s going up against an awful Titans secondary that has allowed more than 259 yards per game and has been an over machine. Tennessee is now dealing with a few injuries on defense, including one to Caleb Farley, and will have to deal with a Jets offense that’s getting Jamison Crowder back for the first time all year.
It’s not that Crowder is a game-changing receiver, but I do expect this Jets offense to operate a bit better with a veteran wideout in the fold. Wilson actually looked pretty good last week only to have his receivers comically run the same route or drop crucial passes. Crowder can help with that.
Carolina Panthers at Dallas Cowboys
Ezekiel Elliott over 58.5 yards (-120)
This isn’t a sexy bet either with Tony Pollard lurking in the Dallas backfield, but I think the Cowboys are showing their hand a bit here with Elliott. He’s still the lead back, playing 70% of the snaps in Week 3 and seeing 16 or more carries in the last two games. Pollard also missed practice this week due to personal reasons, so there’s a small chance he doesn’t suit up at all for this game.
Regardless, I couldn’t be more impressed with the way Zeke is running at the moment, going for nearly 100 yards against Philly on primetime last week. He’s in another good spot here against a Panthers defense that’s a bit overrated due to lackluster competition.
Seattle Seahawks vs. San Francisco 49ers
Jimmy Garoppolo over 1.5 passing touchdowns (-125)
Garoppolo wasn’t amazing against the Packers, but he did turn it on late and show everyone that he can be a good quarterback. He managed to get up over seven yards per attempt in that one, and I think he can take his momentum into this one against a terrible secondary.
Seattle’s very lopsided on defense — they are amazing against the run and atrocious against the pass, allowing over 285 yards per game through the air. Considering the Niners have a rotating cast of characters running the ball to begin with, I think this game plan will feature a heavy dose of Jimmy G. That means at least two touchdowns. I like this a little bit better than his passing over, but I’d take both.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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