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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Astros vs. White Sox Showdown on October 10

Pearce Dietrich gives his top lineup advice for Sunday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Astros and White Sox, which starts at 8:07 p.m. ET.

Division Series - Chicago White Sox v Houston Astros - Game Two Photo by Bob Levey/Getty Images

Chicago’s back is against the wall. Not only do they have to win three straight games to advanced to the next round of the postseason, but they must do it against a team that has pounded them. The first two games were closer than the scores make out, but the scoreboard doesn’t lie. Late inning runs are runs all the same. The Astros have plated 15 runs in the first two games and are showing no sign of slowing down.



Houston Astros vs. Chicago White Sox

Captain’s Picks

Luis Robert ($17,100 CP) — It looks like Luis Robert is going to be this year’s Randy Arozarena. The White Sox would need to win some games first, but so far, Robert has not been the problem. He has collected five hits and a walk in eight plate appearances. Robert returned from the IL on Aug 9., and he proceeded to hit like he was never injured — .424 wOBA, .272 ISO, 173 wRC+ and a 41% hard contact rate. With numbers like that of course his splits are good — .385 wOBA, .215 ISO, 147 wRC+ and a 41% hard contact rate against right-handed pitching. The only knock against Robert is that his knocks has been singles, but he’s hitting the ball hard. Other than one seeing eye single (66.1 mph exit velocity), his four hits had exit velocities of 102.7, 110.3, 103.6 and 111.1 mph. Add some launch angle and those are home runs and the White Sox might be up 2-0 instead of being down 0-2.

Jose Altuve ($14,400 CP) — In game one, Altuve reached base twice and scored two runs. In game two, Altuve reached base twice and scored two runs. Yes, that was copy and pasted, and future blurbs will be the result of ctrl+v and +c. In Game one, Altuve crushed a double (105.4 mph EV) and in game two, he stung a single (95.6 mph EV). In 65 postseason games, Altuve is slashing .304/.378/.559, but it’s not as if he just turns it on for the playoffs. Altuve closed the season strong with a .398 wOBA, .268 ISO and 158 wRC+ in the final month of play. That topped off a bounce back season that completely erased the memory of a disappointing 2020. Most notable was the return of Altuve’s power (.211 ISO), but his other advanced stats were strong as well — .357 wOBA and a 130 wRC+. Finally, in eight at-bats against Dylan Cease, Altuve has four hits including a home run and three runs scored.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $40K AL Pennant Push [$10K to 1st] (HOU vs CWS)


Value Plays

Kyle Tucker ($7,600) — This price seems low, but DraftKings should not overreact to one playoff game — 2-for-4 with a homer and three RBIs on Friday. However, going back to the regular season, Tucker has homered in three of his last four games. The matchup isn’t great, but that is the same for every player on this slate and every slate moving forward. Tucker was hitless on Thursday with two strike outs against White Sox ace, Lance Lynn, but he wasn’t far from being dialed in — two lineouts (100.1 mph EV and 90.1 mph EV). To no surprise, he followed those hard hits with three hard hits on Friday.

Michael Brantley ($6,600) — This is not an exciting pick, but Brantley is a professional hitter. If the White Sox tighten up their belts and stop allowing a cascade of hits, runners and runs, then the fantasy points will dry up on the Houston side, but not entirely. Brantley is the steady hitter that works in multiple Showdown slate builds. If this is a Chicago game, then Brantley is the cheap run-back that scores harmless points on Dylan Cease. If this is another Houston rout, then Brantley is very likely to be on base and scoring runs at a discounted price tag. Last season, Brantley slashed .346/.424/.558 in the playoffs. It looks like he will continue his playoff hitting as he has collected three hits so far in this postseason. Also, in seven at-bats against Dylan Cease, Brantley has two home runs and a double.


Fades

Dylan Cease ($15,900 CP; $10,600) — The Astros are on fire. On Thursday, every batter in the lineup recorded a hard hit ball. On Friday, they were unable to repeat that feat, but the team recorded 11 hard hits while only striking out six times. It’s one thing to stop the bleeding and save the season by plugging your fingers into the holes of a sinking boat, but there are too many holes. The only way that Cease stops the Astros is by striking them out, and while he does have an excellent 32% K rate, the Astros have been the hardest team in baseball to strikeout for several seasons — 20% K rate against right-handed pitching in 2021. It’s possible that Cease works his magic an fans double-digit Astros and saves Chicago’s season, but it’s more likely that the Astros just keep hitting.


The Outcome

Even if the Astros are half the team that won on Thursday and Friday, then that should be good enough for at least six runs. With Luis Garcia on the mound, half of that half is probably good enough for Houston. One side feels invincible and the other is staring off into the distance wondering how nine months of work disappeared so fast.

Final Score: Astros 6, White Sox 3

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $40K AL Pennant Push [$10K to 1st] (HOU vs CWS)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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