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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Giants vs. Dodgers Showdown on October 11

Pearce Dietrich gives his top lineup advice for Monday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Giants and Dodgers, which starts at 9:37 p.m. ET.

On paper, Los Angeles has better pitching and in the actual game on Saturday, that’s how it played out. On paper, LA has better hitters and in the actual game, that’s how it played out. On Monday night, again, the Dodgers are the favorites on paper, but can the gutsy Giants continue their tradition of playoff magic?



San Francisco Giants vs. Los Angeles Dodgers

Captain’s Picks

Max Scherzer ($16,500 CP) — There is always the possibility that Dave Roberts pulls the quick hook, just like he did in the Wild Card game with Scherzer on the mound last week. However, there is also the possibility that Scherzer finds his groove and strikes out 10 Giants. The Giants have not faced Scherzer this season, so that’s an advantage to the pitcher. In the past, the only hitter with marginal success against the ace was Brandon Crawford, but even the power hitting lefty has struck out seven times in his 17 at-bats. The heart of the Giants order has struggled immensely against Scherzer — Buster Posey (.217 wOBA and 4 Ks), Kris Bryant (.200 wOBA and 11 Ks), Evan Longoria (.195 wOBA and 7 Ks) and Wilmer Flores (.039 wOBA and 8 Ks). Finally, since joining the Dodgers, Scherzer has been lights out at Chavez Ravine with a 2.56 FIP, 32.5% K rate and he’s done a great job at limiting his major weakness — allowing home runs (1.1 HR/9).

Mookie Betts ($15,000 CP) — He’s one of the hottest hitters in the postseason so far with five hits in 12 at-bats, and he draws a preferable matchup against a left-handed pitcher — .367 wOBA, .218 ISO, 132 wRC+ and a 44% hard contact rate. His five hits do not tell the whole picture. Even when Betts is not collecting hits, he’s still squaring the ball up. On Saturday the exit velocities on his batted ball events were 86.9, 95.5, 92.4 and 104.4 mph. On Friday, they were 99.1, 40.9, 82.2 and 107.0 mph. There were two softly hit balls in that mix, and while that is disappointing, it also emphasizes how amazing his other cuts have been. Betts is dialed in and he’s facing a pitcher with a 41% hard-hit%.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $70K AL West Coast [$20K to 1st] (SF vs LAD)


Value Plays

Albert Pujols ($4,000) — We’ll likely see the old man on Monday night as a lefty takes the mound for the Giants. The veteran’s portly appearance does not instill confidence in the minds of DFS players, but under that XXL jersey is a player that is still seeing the ball well out of the hands of southpaws — .387 wOBA, .309 ISO, 146 wRC+, 42% hard contact rate and a 14% K rate against left-handed pitching. There is one big problem with this obvious value play, Pujols will be the first player taken out of the game. It is almost a certainty that when Scherzer exits, a double switch takes Pujols out. Also, if Scherzer is rolling, Dave Roberts might elect to forfeit Pujols’ splits — which may or may not even matter at that point in the game — and elect to swap in a more sound defender, possibly one that is not over 40.

Tommy La Stella ($6,200) — With lefty, Julio Urías, starting game two, La Stella hit the bench while Donovan Solano got the start. In game one with a right-handed pitcher on the mound, La Stella started at shortstop for the Giants and went 2-for-2 (a single with a 96.4 mph EV and a single with a 93.2 mph EV) and added a walk and run scored. The platoon will be his tonight with Scherzer on the mound. While it’s not a great matchup, La Stella has been stellar in previous encounters with the Dodgers’ ace. In 10 at-bats vs. Scherzer, La Stella has four hits which include a double, triple and home run.


Fades

Evan Longoria ($9,900 CP; $6,600) — This is a cheap price for a reason. Longoria was once a great player and is still a quality veteran, but he’s not a star and his price is correct. So far in this postseason, Longoria is 0-for-7, but he has hit the ball hard three times. He is due for some positive regression and if he runs into a pitch from Scherzer, it will likely leave the park. However, there is a very good chance that he does not run into a pitch from Scherzer (two hits in 23 plate appearances vs. the All Star). In a limited amount of games, Longoria posted a .221 ISO this season, but those numbers are propped up by a .318 ISO vs. left-handed pitching. Longoria is not washed up and he may still be a star in this series with the Dodgers, but tonight does not seem like his night to shine.


The Outcome

Take away a couple San Fransisco home runs off home run-prone Walker Buehler, and the Giants are not hitting. Erase those long balls, and Max Scherzer is facing a struggling offense. This is an easy pick and that’s why the DraftKings Sportsbook has the Dodgers as hefty favorites in this home game.

Final Score: Dodgers 5, Giants 2

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $70K AL West Coast [$20K to 1st] (SF vs LAD)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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