The NFL futures market is a fascinating one. We get the entire summer to examine the odds on DraftKings Sportsbook and get our bets in. And then, just like that, the product on the field begins, and everything changes. What we see on a week-to-week basis in the NFL causes plenty of movement in the futures market, so let’s take a look at some of those notable odds on the move this week.
Kyler Murray was a pretty heavy favorite for MVP just a week ago, coming off a big road win over the Rams. The Cardinals got another win to improve to 5-0, but to no fault of his own, Kyler actually slide down the board because of what we saw in the AFC on SNF.
Heading into Week 5, Patrick Mahomes was slightly above Josh Allen on the board. But the underdog Bills marched into Arrowhead Stadium on SNF and stuck it to the Chiefs, giving us a massive swing to some big names. Mahomes slid all the way from +650 to +1800 with the loss, now the ninth name on the board.
Josh Allen is the big riser this week, jumping from +700 to the +450 favorite, slightly ahead of Murray. The dominant road win over KC really signified a shift in the AFC, which we’ll talk more about later. Hopefully you snagged Allen at his opening price or after the Week 1 loss, because the value here is probably gone.
Then there’s Lamar Jackson, who still sits well below names like Murray and Allen. However, Lamar more than sliced his odds in half with that improbable comeback on MNF. Jackson’s total yardage on his own ranks right around average when you compare it to other NFL teams. Insane numbers.
Justin Herbert and Dak Prescott remain great considerations. They still have solid prices playing in dangerous offenses for one-loss teams.
This is mostly just a spot to highlight how significant that SNF win was for the Bills over the Chiefs on the road. Buffalo is now the +250 favorite to win the conference, and it’s tough to argue with the odds. The Bills have been tremendous on both sides of the ball, as arguably the best team since that odd Week 1 loss.
Only other minor notes here are Baltimore’s win giving it a slight boost, and Cleveland’s loss dropping it a bit.
Things seem to be steadying in the OROY market for all but one guy — Ja’Marr Chase.
Mac Jones had been the favorite since after Week 1, and his odds have remained relatively unchanged. Since then, the rest of the rookie class has continued to shoot themselves in the foot. Trey Lance got his starting opportunity, but hasn’t used it to jump up the board. Justin Fields has won consecutive starts, coming back into the conversation at +750. It’s easier to talk yourself into backing Fields as a long-shot since we now know the job is his moving forward.
It takes a monster performance to win the award if you’re not a QB, and Chase continues to do so. Through five games, Chase has a 24-456-5 line, averaging almost 20 yards per reception. He’s on pace for rookie receiving records in both yardage and touchdowns. If he keeps the pace, and these QBs keep playing poorly, there could be value on Chase, despite missing much better opening odds.
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