NFL Week 6 gets underway on Thursday with the Bucs and Eagles squaring off in what feels to me like a great game for player props — let’s dig into some odds on DraftKings Sportsbook!
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The Eagles have been insanely soft against the run, while actually defending the pass well this season. Philly ranks third in passing yards per game allowed (194.8), and Tom Brady comes into this one with a banged up thumb on a short week. Tampa should absolutely look to attack on the ground, particularly against an Eagles rushing defense that’s allowed the third-most yards per game (148).
Fournette has topped this number in two consecutive games and seen 32 carries in that span. Jones is only handling 4-6 carries per game, but we’re getting a very low number here. Both should see enough work as a touchdown road favorite on a short week to go over here. It’s a perfect storm for Tampa rushing props.
On the flip side, we have a Tampa defense that absolutely stuffs the run, easily ranking atop the NFL at 45.8 yards per game allowed — best by about 30 yards. But the passing defense ranks dead last at 314.4 yards per game allowed. As touchdown home dogs, the Eagles have no choice but to sling it.
Hurts has performed well in similar matchups when playing from behind — 387 yards vs. KC and 326 at DAL. I expect Ertz and Smith to be popular targets. The Bucs’ best LB in TE coverage is out, and they really struggle defending the position to begin with. Dallas Goedert will be out for this game, opening more reps for Ertz. Ertz had 53 yards against the Cowboys and 60 against the Chiefs, before only catching 1-of-6 targets last week. Expect plenty of production from a TE in an expanded role here. Smith should burn the Bucs for some deeper gashes. The rookie has been very involved the last two games, hauling in 14-of-18 targets for 199 yards. These are all very correlated together, but the Eagles only chance is getting going through the air.
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