The Los Angeles Dodgers and San Francisco Giants meet tonight in the Bay Area with a spot in the NLCS on the line in one of the most anticipated games of the year. Both pitching staffs have been lights-out to this point, making the margins in this one mighty slim. With the stage set, here are my best MLB bets to consider on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Editor’s Note: Dodgers RP Corey Knebel will start tonight’s game vs. the Giants.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
My favorite play in this one is unequivocally the under.
To give you a sense of how dominant both of these teams’ arms have been, try these numbers on for size. The Giants own a .524 OPS through four games with just four homers and nine runs in total — the very worst among all teams in the Division Series. The Dodgers don’t check in much better with a .663 OPS and three homers. San Francisco has hit .184, while L.A. has been slightly better at .243.
Without Anthony DeSclafani to tee-off on, though, those numbers would be nearly identical. Now, two fantastic starters will come together on Thursday to give us a supreme pitcher’s duel.
Julio Urias owns a 0.56 ERA over the last two postseasons, striking out one hitter per inning on average, and for my money, was the best pitcher in the second half of the season with a 2.04 ERA. Logan Webb’s 2.71 ERA rivals that, and his 7 1⁄3 shutout innings against L.A. in Game 1 have to have the Giants coming in with confidence.
While it’s hard to call which side takes this one, I’d say the under is safe. Neither one of these starters should run into much trouble, and if they do, we’ve got two elite bullpens — with the two best ERAs in the second half — to back them up.
I want to back Posey to have a good game here, considering he is the best hitter against lefties on this team not named Evan Longoria, and this seems like a great spot to do so. Not only does Posey have a 174 wRC+ against southpaws in 2021, he has five hits in 15 at-bats so far this postseason against some very formidable Dodgers arms with a home run.
Turner, on the other hand, has been surprisingly cold this postseason, going 2-for-21 between the four games against the Giants and the Wild Card Game. I see a pretty good deal here considering Turner’s slump and Posey’s hot-streak.
Here’s where I take a big gulp. I love Urias in this spot, as I mentioned above, and while he’s brought his strikeout rate up to 26.2% this year, I’m really not feeling a total this high.
For starters, Urias is sitting right around a strikeout per inning when you look at his last two postseasons, and the last month of the regular season. That would mean you’re going to need Urias to go deep into the fifth inning here to have a good chance of cashing the over, and into the sixth to have a very good chance. I don’t know if Urias, even if he is pitching well, will make it that far in an elimination game. We’ve seen Dave Roberts pull the plug very early, and he should be compelled to once again tonight, given the fact that his bullpen has been rock solid.
I also don’t love the Giants owning a strikeout rate of 21.6% against lefties this year. They’ve been great at getting the ball in play and should be a tough side to sit down on strikes.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.