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DraftKings Fantasy Football Tournament Picks: NFL Week 6 Top High-Upside DFS Targets, Sleepers

Geoff Ulrich shares his top high-upside targets, stacks and contrarian options for this week’s main fantasy football slate on DraftKings.

Syndication: The Enquirer Sam Greene via Imagn Content Services, LLC

Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.


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Stacks

Cincinnati Bengals at Detroit Lions

Joe Burrow ($6,300) - Ja’Marr Chase ($6,700) - D’Andre Swift ($6,300)

Two thirds of our Burrow stack from last week turned out pretty good (thanks Davante Adams), and I couldn’t resist going back to the Bengals in Week 6, in what looks like an even juicier spot. The Lions have quite simply been a big-play factory for opposing wide receivers on defense and come into this game ranked last in yards per attempt against and second-to-last in yards per play allowed.

Enter Chase, who I ignorantly left off the stack last week for Tyler Boyd ($5,400). Boyd is great (and could still be used as part of a triple Bengals stack), but Chase is the clear trump card of this offense for DFS. He’s averaging nearly 20 yards per catch through five games and being used both near the line of scrimmage and on plenty of deep shots every week. There’s almost no denying Chase is the real thing at this point (and he’s averaging 20.9 DKFP per game), but his salary remains behind most of the elites at his position — despite having a matchup against a defense that’s allowing an insane 16.17 yards per catch to his position.

If Chase is our Joker, then we should likely be going back to Burrow here as our Batman. Burrow threw the ball a season high 38-times last week, and as the Cincinnati defense starts to show some cracks (and he gets further into his knee rehab), we should see his passing attempts rise. The worry of a low-volume passing day is real, but its offset by how bad the Lions are at stopping downfield throws — and how efficient Burrow is. The second-year QB is completing over 71% of his passes for a healthy 8.8 yards per attempt while Detroit has allowed all four of the QBs who have thrown 25 times or more against them this year to go for 255 yards or more in the air.

On the flip side, coming back with Swift here (the Riddler?) feels like a must, too. If the Bengals start chucking TD passes every series, then we know Swift’s PPR usage will go through the roof. Despite only finding the end zone once this year, he’s leading the Lions in targets through five games and has seen his snap count rise in each of the last three games. The Bengals defense will certainly oblige a ton of dump-offs to Swift, too — they’ve given up the second-most receptions to running backs through five weeks. While there’s some games with much higher profiles on the slate, don’t forget about the Bengals-Lions, where the most explosive players on both sides have some of the most exploitable matchups of the week.

Just Missed: Patrick Mahomes ($8,300) - Terry McLaurin ($7,100) - Travis Kelce ($7,000)


Quarterback

Mac Jones, New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys ($5,200)

Jones has been a bit of a dud as a fantasy option thus far in 2021 and comes in averaging just 13.5 DKFP per game and 6.5 yards per attempt. Jones is confined by an offense that doesn’t throw downfield much, but he has been efficient, completing 71% if his passes on the year. If any opponent is going to break Jones out of his shell for more fantasy points though, it’s the Cowboys. Opponents vs. Dallas have averaged 41.6 pass attempts per game, and they’ve allowed the most yards to opposing QBs through five weeks.

Dallas’ defense is making plays (10 INTs on the year), but we’ll take a turnover or two here for the potential of more big plays. Outside of last week (when injuries destroyed the Giants offense), each of the first four QBs Dallas has faced has gone for over 300 yards, and all four would have had multiple passing TDs if not for a late red zone INT by Justin Herbert ($7,300) in Week 3. It’s correct to distrust Jones as an every week option, but as a min-priced play this week, it’s also OK to chase the breakout game here. If he can’t do it vs. Dallas, it’s likely not coming in 2021 anyway.

Just Missed: Justin Herbert ($7,300)


Running Back

Javonte Williams, Denver Broncos vs. Las Vegas Raiders ($5,000)

Williams has had a slow start to his rookie season, as a couple of poor performances plus a timeshare with veteran Melvin Gordon ($5,100) has hampered his upside. Week 6 could be a breakout spot though against a Raiders rush defense that is starting to revert to its 2020 form (aka bad). Vegas has now ceded 4.6 yards per carry against on the season, the sixth-worst mark in the league, and have allowed an average of 141 yards rushing by opposing running backs in each of their last two games, which both happened to be losses.

Denver comes in as -3.5 home favorites, and there’s a good chance we get a favorable game script for Williams here, which could lead to lots of late-game rushes. Further, we also have Gordon on the injury list, who only got in a limited practice on Thursday. Williams has also really picked up his play after a slow start and averaged 7.3 yards per carry over the Broncos’ last two games. All things point to a situation here where the rookie could be given a sizable workload boost against one of the weakest rush defenses in the league. It’s a good upside spot on a player who likely won’t have much ownership attached to him (unless Gordon gets announced as out before Sunday).

Just Missed: Austin Ekeler ($7,900)


Wide Receiver

Terry McLaurin, Washington Football Team vs. Kansas City Chiefs ($7,100)

Washington is coming off a dud vs. the Saints, managing zero passing TDs as a team. The down week for Taylor Heinicke ($5,800) affected everyone on Washington, but none more than McLaurin. While poor QB play is going to hamper McLaurin in some spots, his usage means there will be plenty of spike weeks, too. Since Heinicke took over as starter in Week 2, McLaurin ranks second in targets and has seen 11 or more passes come his way in three of his last four starts.

The play with McLaurin then seems to be find the weeks where his quarterback won’t be hampered by a good pass rush or secondary, and profit. The Chiefs oblige us in both those metrics this week, as they rank last in sacks per game and have also given up 8.9 yards per pass attempt, the third-worst mark on the year. From a construction standpoint, McLaurin is also just the eighth-most expensive play at his position, yet no one outside of Davante Adams ($9,000) has seen more targets than him over the last four games. We don’t have to guess where the ball is going in Washington anymore, so even if the ownership gets up here a little, taking the still affordable price tag on McLaurin feels like a no-brainer in GPPs.

Just Missed: Amon-Ra St. Brown ($4,200)


Tight End

Hunter Henry, New England Patriots vs. Dallas Cowboys ($3,900)

Henry broke through for his best game as a Patriot last week, going for six receptions, 75 yards and a TD on eight targets. Henry’s usage has been steadily creeping up since the first two weeks (he only saw seven targets through Week 2) and has now averaged 6.25 targets per game in the Patriots’ last three games. That’s not elite usage, but at such a thin and volatile position, it’s certainly more than enough to justify his sub-$4K salary for Week 6.

The Patriots have also been throwing the ball more than advertised of late, as they enter this week eighth in pass attempts and averaging 38.4 per game. The Cowboys defense hasn’t been a poor opponent for any receivers, and strong receiving TEs like Rob Gonkowski and Zach Ertz have been able to find a ton of success against this team down the middle. The fear here is the targets for Henry go back to being split with Jonnu Smith ($3,000), who has seen five-plus targets in four of the Patriots’ five games. Henry has seen more downfield targets, though (10.8 yards per catch vs. Smith’s 7.7), and is the one who has seen his usage rise of late. He makes sense to go back to here as a cheap value target, especially in this matchup where we can safely project the Patriots for well over 35 passes.

Just Missed: Noah Fant ($4,800)


DST

Minnesota Vikings ($2,900) at Carolina Panthers

The Vikings DST enters averaging 3.4 sacks per game (second in the league) and will play a quarterback in Sam Darnold ($6,100) who may be on the verge of turning back into a Pumpkin. Darnold has only managed a 60% completion rate over his last two games while simultaneously throwing for five INTs vs. just three TDs. Even worse (or better if you’re using Minnesota), Darnold’s big plays have dried up, as he’s averaged just 6.25 yards per attempt the last two weeks against poor pass defenses in Philly and Dallas.

The Vikings enter here as small road favorites, which tells you something about how the Panthers are being viewed. Carolina has been solid on defense, but there’s certainly a belief the Vikings defense will have an edge when they’re on the field. Minnesota is getting lots of pressure but has only managed four turnovers thus far (fifth-fewest in the league), so positive regression seems likely here, too.

It’s always nice to find a DST unit that isn’t overly expensive or popular and has lots of potential for a breakout week — that’s exactly what we have here with Minnesota. They make for an ideal GPP target in Week 6.

Just missed: Kansas City Chiefs ($2,800)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is wavegoodbye) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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