:format(webp)/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_image/image/69999357/1343632407.0.jpg)
It’s Week 6 and that means “Bye Weeks” are in our lives. Taking the week of rest are the Falcons, Saints, Jets and 49ers. Let’s take a look at what we have going on throughout the rest of the league from a betting and daily fantasy perspective.
You have to follow me on Twitter or else you’re not allowed to read this article. @SBuchanan24.
Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Los Angeles Rams (-10; -450) at New York Giants (+340)
Betting trends:
Rams 2021 road record: 2-0
Rams 2021 road record when favored: 2-0
Rams 2021 ATS record: 3-2
Rams 2021 ATS record when favored: 2-2
Giants 2021 home record: 0-2
Giants 2021 home record as underdogs: 0-1
Giants 2021 ATS record: 2-3
Giants 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 2-2
The Rams and Colts (-10; -450) are the biggest favorites on this slate but it’s the Rams that intrigues me the most. The Giants are the walking wounded coming into this game, with a number of players injured and not playing. Daniel Jones ($5,500) didn’t practice on Wednesday but is “on track” to take the field on Sunday. Unfortunately, he’s going to have a different cast of players surrounding him. Saquon Barkley ($6,800) and Kenny Golladay ($5,700) is doubtful while Sterling Shepard ($5,000) and Darius Slayton ($3,800) is questionable. With that in, they’ll have an extremely tough time trying time to hang with a Rams team that’s averaging 28.2 points per game, which is 8th best average in the league. The Giants, meanwhile, are allowing the 27.8 points per game, which is 7th highest mark in the league.
Matthew Stafford ($6,700) continues to enjoy a resurgence in his career, as he’s coming off another 20+ DKFP performance against the Seahawks. Despite only throwing for one touchdown, he completed 67.6% of his passes for 365 yards while averaging 10 yards per attempt. He should enjoy more of that success against the Giants, who allow an average of 23.7 DKFP and 276 passing yards to opposing quarterbacks. While Stafford has primarily focused on Cooper Kupp ($7,900), Robert Woods ($6,100) saw 14 targets, making 12 catches for 150 yards last week. Coach Sean McVay said he wanted to get Woods more involved and he certainly did. Both receivers will draw extremely favorable matchups, with Kupp drawing CB Julian Love in coverage and Woods seeing CB James Bradberry. Bradberry in particular has been poor in coverage, allowing a 74.2% completion rate on 31 targets for 301 yards and an average of 13.1 YPR. This is an extremely great spot for the Rams offense and the ownership will reflect that.
Other notable favorites: Houston Texans (+350) at Indianapolis Colts (-10; -450)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Kansas City Chiefs (-6.5; -300) at Washington Football Team(+235) Over/Under: 54.5
Betting trends:
Chiefs 2021 road record: 1-1
Chiefs 2021 road record as favorites: 1-1
Chiefs 2021 Over/Under record: 4-1
Chiefs 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 4-1
Football Team 2021 home record: 1-2
Football Team 2021 home record as underdogs: 0-1
Football Team 2021 Over/Under record: 4-1
Football Team 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 2-0
This game is going to have A LOT of points.
Currently in the NFL, we have five teams allowing an average of over 30 points per game. The top two teams are in this game, with the Chiefs (32.6) and the Football Team (31). The biggest shocker is really the Football Team, who was expected to be one of the top defense in the league, as they were last season. Instead, they’ve allowed a total of 155 points, which is the second-most in the league behind, you guessed it, the Chiefs at 163. While these teams are allowing a ton of points, they do have a marginal separation in average points per game scored. The Chiefs round out the top five with 30.8 while the Football Team falls to 12th with 24.6.
This is going to be one of the most popular games to stack, as the total is more than three points higher than any other game on the board. Some of the key offensive players on both sides are also in incredible matchups. Terry McLaurin ($7,100) is matched up against CB Mike Hughes, who is allowing 11.8 YPR and three touchdowns scored against. The Chiefs have been using S Karmen Curl in coverage, mainly the slot, which is where Tyreek Hill ($8,500) has played 47% of his snaps. Then you can also get some extreme value on Ricky Seals-Jones ($3,000) who played 98% of the snaps last week with Logan Thomas on IR. Seals-Jones saw three red zone targets on the nine he received at the stone minimum of $2,500. His salary only jumped $500 and he’ll remain in the starting role against a team allowing 18.5 DKFP, 93.2 receiving yards and two touchdowns to the position. Finally, the running back position is also something to consider with Antonio Gibson ($6,500) and the Chiefs new starter in Darrell Williams ($4,900) taking over for Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who landed on the IR.
Other notable total: Los Angeles Chargers (+120) at Baltimore Ravens (-2.5; -140) O/U 51
Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.
NFL Week 6 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
:format(webp):no_upscale()/cdn.vox-cdn.com/uploads/chorus_asset/file/22929251/Screen_Shot_2021_10_15_at_10.02.23_AM.png)
NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Matt Stafford, Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, $6,700 — A lot of attention will be on the most expensive quarterbacks on this slate and rightfully so. With that said, I have absolutely no problem with going down a bit for Stafford against the Giants. In terms of matchup, this one can’t get much better for the Rams, who are -10 favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. The Giants have allowed an average of 23.7 DKFP, 276 passing yards and 10 touchdowns thrown thus far. The Rams are playing at the fastest rate in the league while passing the ball 58% of the time. The Giants pass rush is also ranked near the bottom of the league, which will give Stafford a clean pocket to work with. When that happens, which it has on 75% of his dropbacks, he boasts a 74% completion rate, 9.1 YPA and eight of the 12 touchdowns he’s thrown.
Player props for Matt Stafford on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Passing Yards: 283.5 (over -115 under -115)
Passing TDs: 2.5 (over +155 under -215)
Longest Completion: 37.5 (over -120 under -110)
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams at New York Giants, $7,900 — Now, the most difficult question is who to pair with Stafford. Robert Woods ($6,100) is $1,800 cheaper and saw 14 targets last week, in which he turned that into 12 receptions for 150 yards and 30 DKFP. Kupp was still very involved and caught seven of his 10 targets for 92 yards but neither reached the end zone. To be honest, I don’t hate using both players. In the end, I do prefer Kupp in the slot against CB Julian Love. Love has been targeted against seven times this far and has allowed five receptions for 61 yards, an average of 12.2 YPR. Love really struggled last season with the Giants, allowing 20 receptions on 28 targets for a total of 302 yards, or 15.1 YPR. Regardless of who Kupp lines up opposite of, this Giants secondary is extremely beatable.
Player props for Cooper Kupp on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Receiving Yards: 82.5 (over -115 under -115)
Longest Receptions: 25.5 (over -110 under -120)
TD Scorer: First +550 Last +550 Anytime -140
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions