With the Bengals narrowly missing a cover against the Packers in a ridiculous kicking debacle for both teams, I finished with a 1-2 record with my underdog picks last week. For the season, my record sits at 9-6. I’ll look to bounce back in Week 6, which is limited on options with four teams on a bye.
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Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Miami Dolphins: Jaguars +3
Let’s start things off early with the London game of the week. It’s an ugly matchup between two teams who are a combined 1-9. The Dolphins were dismantled by the Buccaneers last week, losing their fourth straight game. Three of those losses came by at least 10 points, two of which were by at least 28 points, so they haven’t exactly been losing nail biters. Their passing attack has been limited with Jacoby Brissett under center, although they are likely to get Tua Tagovailoa (ribs) back for this matchup.
The Jaguars have also been the victims of plenty of blowouts given that four of their five losses have come by at least 10 points. On the bright side, they have finally started to give James Robinson more carries again, which he has turned into 315 yards and four touchdowns the last three weeks. The Dolphins have allowed the ninth-most rushing yards per game, so if Robinson gets fed early and often, it wouldn’t be a surprise to see the Jaguars finally earn their first win.
Los Angeles Chargers at Baltimore Ravens: Chargers +2.5
These two teams played in dramatic games last week. It took a come-from-behind effort, but the Ravens pulled off a win against the Colts in overtime. They can thank Lamar Jackson, who put the team on his back while racking up over 500 combined yards and four touchdown passes. With the win, they improved to 4-1 on the season. However, two of their wins have come by two or fewer points, one of which was against the lowly Lions.
The Chargers allowed 42 points to the Browns in Week 5, but still managed to earn a win at home. Justin Herbert recorded four touchdown passes, leaving him with 11 over the last three games. They also improved to 4-1 with their only loss coming by three points against the Cowboys. The Ravens have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per game in the league, so Herbert could help them not only cover, but maybe even pull off the victory.
Minnesota Vikings at Carolina Panthers: Panthers +2.5
After starting off the season with three straight wins, the Panthers have lost back-to-back games against teams from the NFC East. It hasn’t helped their cause that they have had to play without Christian McCaffrey (hamstring), who is in danger of missing his third straight game. With him out, Chuba Hubbard has had one good game and one mediocre one. The good performance came last week against the Eagles when he had 134 total yards.
The Vikings are lucky to be 2-3. It looked like the Lions were going to pull off an upset over them in Week 5, but they managed to escape with a victory on a last-second field goal. This game being played in Carolina could be a problem for the Vikings. They are 0-2 on the road this season and have lost four of their last five road games, overall. Regardless of where they have played, they have failed to cover the spread in 10 of their last 12 games. Even if McCaffrey remains out, there is a path to the Panthers covering.
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