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There is a free $5K Sportsbook Pool for NFL Week 6. You have to pick each of the games on Sunday against the spread, and the higher you finish on the leaderboard, the more money you earn.
Let’s take a look at all the contests slated for Sunday, including my five personal favorites.
Houston Texans @ Indianapolis Colts (-7.5)
The Pick: Colts -7.5
The theme of this week’s contest is line value. We can grab the Colts as 7.5-point favorites in this pool, but they’re up to -10 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Colts are one of the preferred targets for the sharps this week. The Texans have received a slight majority in ticket count in this contest, but the Colts have received 71% of the spread dollars. That means that the high-dollar wagers, which tend to come from professional bettors, are siding with the Colts.
The Colts have gotten off to a dreadful 1-4 start this season, but they’ve played a bear of a schedule. They’ve lost games to the Seahawks, Rams, Titans and Ravens, but they’ve still shown plenty of ability in those contests. They only lost by three to the Rams, while they had the Ravens on the ropes in Baltimore just last week.
The Texans are the perfect bounce-back spot for the Colts, so expect them to take care of business.
The Pick: Washington Football Team +6.5
The Chiefs continue to get massive public support, and they continue to let bettors down. They’ve now fallen to just 2-11 against the spread over their past 13 regular-season games, and they were just walloped at home by the Bills. For the first time in a while, they have some serious questions.
The biggest question is their defense. They rank dead last in Football Outsiders defensive DVOA, and they own a bottom-two mark against the run and the pass.
They haven’t stopped a single quarterback yet this season, so I don’t see why Taylor Heinicke would be the first. Heinicke has played well since replacing the injured Ryan Fitzpatrick, averaging 7.2 adjusted yards per attempt with eight touchdown passes.
Despite their struggles, the public just can’t resist taking the Chiefs laying less than a touchdown. Maybe this is the week they bounce back, but I’ll side with the sharps and back the Football Team.
Green Bay Packers (-4.5) @ Chicago Bears
The Pick: Packers -4.5
The Packers are up to -6 on DraftKings Sportsbook, so we’re getting a bit of value in this contest. The Bears have won two straight games with Justin Fields under center, but those wins have come against the Lions and Raiders. This game vs. the Packers is a massive step up in weight class.
The Bears have relied on their run game with Fields under center, but they may not have that luxury this week. David Montgomery and Damien Williams have both been ruled out, which leaves Khalil Herbert and Ryan Nall to handle the running back duties vs. the Packers. The coaching staff has also been reluctant to let Fields run the ball himself, so they could struggle to move the ball in this matchup.
The Bears have also relied on a stout defense of late, but that’s not a good formula for beating Aaron Rodgers. He struggled in his first game this season, but he’s been lights-out since then, racking up 10 touchdown passes with just one interception.
Ultimately, I think the Packers cover if they can score even 20 points in this matchup. I think that’s a pretty safe bet with Rodgers.
Minnesota Vikings @ Carolina Panthers (-0.5)
The Pick: Vikings +0.5
The Panthers might be the most overrated team in football at the moment. They jumped out to a 3-0 record after victories over the Jets, Saints and Texans, but they’ve come crashing back to reality over the past two weeks. Sam Darnold in particular has looked like the Darnold of old, throwing three interceptions and averaging just 1.68 adjusted yards per attempt last week vs. the Eagles.
The Vikings have a worse record at this point, but they are considered the better team by DVOA. Their three losses have come against solid competition, and they’ve lost those games by a total of 11 points. They should be able to turn things around in a friendlier matchup.
The Vikings also have the edge from an injury perspective. Dalvin Cook is expected to return to the lineup after missing last week’s game, while Christian McCaffrey will miss his third-straight game for the Panthers.
Seattle Seahawks (-2.5) @ Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pick: Steelers +2.5
This line clearly isn’t accounting for the injury to Russell Wilson. It might make sense if he was under center, but definitely not with Geno Smith at QB. The Steelers are listed as 5.5-point favorites at the moment, so grabbing them at +2.5 in this contest is definitely advised. To quote the legendary Forrest Gump, “That’s all I have to say about that.”
Here’s who I’m targeting for the rest of the Sunday games. Remember, we’re looking to beat the competition and climb up the leaderboard, so I’ll be looking to gain leverage on the field and fade the public in situations where I don’t see a huge edge on the spread.
Los Angeles Rams (-7.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants +7.5
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions
Pick: Bengals -3.5
Los Angeles Chargers @ Baltimore Ravens (-2.5)
Pick: Ravens -2.5
Arizona Cardinals @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Pick: Cardinals +2.5
Dallas Cowboys (-1.5) @ New England Patriots
Pick: Cowboys -1.5
Las Vegas Raiders @ Denver Broncos (-2.5)
Pick: Broncos -2.5
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