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Fantasy Football Picks: Seahawks vs. Steelers DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Reid Fowler preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Seahawks and the Steelers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

The Seattle Seahawks will take on the Pittsburgh Steelers with a much different backfield than they started with this season. Both Russell Wilson and Chris Carson were placed on the IR earlier this week. The Steelers will be without JuJu Smith-Schuster for the remainder of the season, providing more opportunities for a couple of Steelers pass catchers. Neither quarterback in this game elicits a ton of confidence in turning this into a high-scoring affair, but it doesn’t mean we should fade all the pass catchers this week.

Let’s look at this game from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (SEA vs PIT)



SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Najee Harris ($17,700 CP) — The Steelers are home favorites (-5.5; 42.5) with a low game total, which potentially means a lot of Harris throughout this game. The former Crimson Tide back averages almost twice as much DKFP (25.2) at home than away and has three times more targets and receptions at Heinz Field. In his three home games, Harris has finished as RB8, RB1 and RB11. Najee leads the league in snap share (89%) and gets a Seahawks run defense that has given up third-most DKFP (32.5) to opposing backfields this season.

Chase Claypool ($13,200 CP) — As noted above, Smith-Schuster will be out for the rest of the season, which opens the door for Claypool this week and beyond. When Diontae Johnson ($14,700 CP; $9,800) was out in Week 3, Claypool ran 91% of the routes and saw 26% of the targets from Ben Roethlisberger ($16,500 CP; $11,000). His production was similar in Week 5 when Smith-Schuster went down — Claypool received 25% targets. When either Johnson or JuJu have been out, Claypool has been a high-end WR2 with WR1 upside. The Steelers have an implied team total of 23.5 and the Seahawks are giving up the fifth-most DKFP (45.6) per game to opposing WR through the first five weeks. Even though Big Ben is not the quarterback he used to be, he had his two highest DKFP totals in Week 3 (18.22) and Week 5 (17.02), the same weeks Claypool finished as WR19 and WR10.



FLEX Plays

DK Metcalf ($10,000) — The Steelers’ defense has been solid against the run, surrendering just 16.5 DKFP per game to opposing backfields, the fourth-lowest this season. Conversely, they’ve struggled against receivers, giving up the second-most DKFP per game. Metcalf’s dealing with a foot injury heading into this week and popped up on the injury report late, which is never good. Still, DK has the lead in target share between him and Tyler Lockett ($8,600) at 28.4 % to Lockett’s 26.1%. Backup quarterbacks tend to favor the alpha receiver, and we saw that last week with Geno Smith ($10,400) targeting Metcalf more and connecting with him for a touchdown. Smith will be up against the fifth-best defense in pressure rating per PFF.com, so Geno needs to get the ball out quick. Metcalf is more of a “post-up” possession receiver and could get a lot of quick looks to keep the Steelers’ defense at bay. Diontae Johnson ($9,800) also has a ton of appeal going up against the Seahawks’ secondary that ranks eighth-worst in coverage grade, according to PFF.com.

Deejay Dallas ($600) — When Chris Carson was ruled out last week, Travis Homer ($800) was the running back most thought would take the passing down work. Homer recorded just 13.3% of the snaps against the Los Angeles Rams, while Dallas recorded 18.3%. As 5.5-point underdogs as of press time, the Seahawks could be in a negative game script, and Dallas could get some garbage time production when Alex Collins ($6,800) needs a breather or in the four- and two-minute drills. Collins is getting work in both the run and pass game for the Seahawks and is definitely viable this week, so Dallas is nothing but a dart throw.


Fades

Tyler Lockett ($8,600) — Last week. Lockett ran his most routes (31) of the season and could have had an even bigger night if it wasn’t for a long pass interference, but the matchup is better for Metcalf this week. The peaks and valleys in Lockett’s scoring have been in the valley state for the past few weeks, which means it could be time for a spike — at least if Russel Wilson was at QB. Lockett and Metcalf have a negative correlation, and Lockett’s inconsistency could amplify with Geno under center.


THE OUTCOME

The Geno Smith Experience may come up a little short on the road at Heinz Field. The Seahawks’ offense was middle of the pack with one of the best quarterbacks over the previous decade — no disrespect toward Geno, but a career 71.5 Quarterback Rating as a starter might be tough to overcome against an aggressive Steelers defense.

Final Score: Pittsburgh Steelers 23, Seattle Seahawks 17

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.2M Sunday Night Showdown [$300K to 1st] (SEA vs PIT)


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


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