The ALCS moves to Boston after the Red Sox managed to steal a game in Houston to give themselves home-field advantage. Here’s how to attack Game 3 via DraftKings Sportsbook.
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Houston Astros at Boston Red Sox
Total over 9 runs -115
There’s probably a reason Jose Urquidy hasn’t seen game action since Oct. 3.
He’s a solid pitcher (3.62 ERA), but the right-hander isn’t someone a playoff contender wants to turn to before Game 4 of a seven-game series — meaning, he’d ideally only make one appearance in this series. But with Lance McCullers unavailable, the Astros have no choice but to go with Urquidy.
Now, the Houston right-hander did well vs. the Red Sox back in May — his lone appearance against his Monday night opponent. But so did Framber Valdez, and he only went 2 2/3 innings in Game 1 after the Red Sox put up three runs (two earned) in short order. And while the Red Sox were good against lefties this season, they were much better against right-handed pitching. In the last month of the season, Boston posted the second-best team OPS (.788) and ISO (.200), third-best wOBA (.336) and fifth-best wRC+ (109) against righties.
As for the Astros’ hand in this bet, it doesn’t matter if the Red Sox want to go with Eduardo Rodriguez or Nick Pivetta. The left-hander can spin a gem at any time, but he hasn’t been great in the postseason. The right-hander came up big vs. the Rays in Game 3, but things can go sideways on him in a hurry. Houston hits both righties and lefties well, as evidenced by both their regular season and postseason numbers.
Red Sox -125
If Game 2 wasn’t the start of the trickle-down effect from Lance McCullers’ absence, then Monday’s contest will be. Urquidy may have done well vs. the Red Sox in his lone start against them earlier in 2021, but there’s a reason the Astros went back to McCullers in Game 4 of the ALDS when they got the chance and not once turned to Houston’s ALCS Game 3 starter in the first round of the postseason.
We all know how big a difference playing at home provides, but it’s especially important for a team with a shaky bullpen and an explosive offense. While Boston’s bullpen has put together some clutch showings in the postseason, it’s not lock-down. Being at Fenway takes a little pressure off Red Sox relievers, leaving one of the best offenses in baseball to have the final say. Mind you, a high-powered offense that has had more than a few big-time performances through seven 2021 postseason games.
Enrique Hernandez over 1.5 total bases +120
Very rarely do I feel compelled to go with a hitter prop. But like anything else, there are always exceptions to the rule. With the way he’s playing, Kike Hernandez props have to be considered until he has back-to-back slow nights.
Boston’s center fielder has a 1.608 OPS through 35 postseason plate appearances with the Red Sox. He has a hit in six of Boston’s seven playoff games. Four of those six games were multi-hit showings — two of which happened in Houston. Perhaps the most important set of stats for this bet: nine of Hernandez’s 16 hits in the 2021 playoffs have been for extra bases.
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