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Fantasy Football Picks: Bills vs. Titans DraftKings NFL DFS MNF Showdown Strategy

Garion Thorne preps you for Monday’s 8:15 p.m. ET contest between the Bills and the Titans with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

It’s possible a few people stopped paying attention to the Buffalo Bills after the team blew a huge second-half lead back in Week 1 against the Steelers. Well, since that point, the Bills have easily been the most dominant squad in all of football. Across the past four weeks, Buffalo has outscored its opponents 156-41, and it ranks first in overall DVOA by a ridiculously wide margin. In short, the Bills have been an absolute monster so far in 2021. It’s no surprise that the Tennessee Titans find themselves as huge home underdogs on Monday.

Let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (BUF vs TEN)




SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Josh Allen ($19,200 CP) - Allen fits within a certain fantasy quarterback archetype that’s hard to ignore in these single-game settings. It’s a group inhabited by Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts and Kyler Murray, as well. Not only did Allen enter Week 6 sitting inside the top 10 at his position in passing yards (1,367) and passing touchdowns (12), but he also sat fourth in rushing yards (188) and he’s currently responsible for a sizable 38.1% share of the Bills’ rushing attempts inside the opponent 10-yard line. Basically, Allen excels at every possible skill that makes for an amazing DFS QB, so it should come as no shock that he’s averaging a robust 0.69 DKFP per drop back in 2021. Simply put, he checks every box, and it’s difficult to envision Titans D/ST ($3,600) having any luck slowing him down. Tennessee is allowing an eye-popping 7.9 yards per opponent passing attempt, while they’ve surrendered the third-most DKFP per game to quarterbacks through five weeks. It’s not a matter of if Allen is going to thrive this evening, it’s just about whether he scores 25.0 DKFP or 30.0 DKFP.

Stefon Diggs ($14,400 CP) - Putting Diggs in the Captain’s slot is a slightly cheaper way to get some exposure to this impressive Buffalo passing attack in what’s arguably the best possible matchup it could draw. Diggs isn’t nearly on the same statistical pace as he was in 2020 — a season where he led the league in both receptions (127) and receiving yards (1,535) — but he remains a high-volume asset, having seen double-digit targets in three of the five contests he’s played this year. Also, as I’ve mentioned several times already, the opponent is truly the main attraction here. The Titans have conceded the most DKFP per game to opposing wide receivers, which makes sense given that the team’s secondary has allowed the fourth-most yards per target to the position (9.7), while additionally giving up the third-most touchdowns per game to wideouts (1.6). Diggs has yet to have a signature performance in 2021. It stands to reason it could come tonight against a team that has yet to prove it can stop a player of his caliber.



FLEX Plays

Julio Jones ($6,600) - This is the least expensive I can ever remember seeing Jones on a Showdown slate, and while that alone is not enough to make someone viable, it’s certainly an interesting starting point. Jones practiced in full in the week leading up to tonight’s contest and he does not carry an injury designation after missing Tennessee’s past two games with a hamstring issue. The veteran wideout led the Titans in receptions (9) and receiving yards (157) through the first two weeks of 2021 — the games he was healthy — and he could be looking at a huge amount of volume if A.J. Brown ($7,800; illness) is limited or ruled out due to his new ailment. Teams haven’t had much success throwing the football versus the Bills, but that hasn’t stopped them from trying out of necessity, as Buffalo’s opponents have been game scripted into a notable 63.9% pass rate. I’d expect Ryan Tannehill ($9,800) and Jones to have a little more efficiency working against this defense than the likes of Jacoby Brissett, Davis Mills or a broken-down Ben Roethlisberger, too.

Darrynton Evans ($200) - Much like last Monday with Rashod Bateman, we’re playing the waiting game with Evans. If I had to make a guess, I think last year’s third-round pick is going to be active for tonight’s contest, especially with Jeremy McNichols ($3,000; ankle) trending towards being sidelined. That would open up a larger role within this Titans offense than maybe some people are willing to realize. Yes, Derrick Henry ($11,400) is the “bell cow” back — one that’s become more involved in the passing game — but McNichols has logged a 30.5% snap share in 2021 and happens to sit second on the team in targets (23). Some of that can be chalked up to injuries, but if Evans sees anything close to that type of opportunity this evening, he’s an absolute steal at his minimum price tag. Keep an eye.


Fades

Derrick Henry ($11,400) - While you can never completely fade the league-leader in touches (156) and scrimmage yards (765) through five weeks, this is a spot where I’d advise caution with Henry. The lone game this season where the All-Pro RB struggled was a blowout loss in Week 1 against the Cardinals — the only truly negative script the Titans have played in so far in 2021. Well, Buffalo touts a +115 point differential in its past four contests, along with the No. 1 rushing defense according to DVOA. In fact, the Bills have allowed an NFL-low 3.03 adjusted line yards per opponent carry, which has translated into an AFC-low 78.4 opponent rushing yards per game. You might remember that this same Buffalo defense also held Henry to a season-low 57 rushing yards in their Week 5 meeting last year. That’s not to say that Henry can’t overcome a tough matchup, but I’d be getting less exposure than usual.


THE OUTCOME

The Bills are a wrecking ball at the moment and if you’re going purely by DVOA rankings, this is actually one of the most lopsided matchups of Week 6, as Tennessee enters Monday sitting 26th in Football Outsiders’ overall metric. Simply put, victories over Jacksonville and Indianapolis aren’t all that impressive. The Titans are now 1-6 in their last seven games against non-divisional opponents (including the playoff loss to the Ravens), with the lone win coming versus the lowly Lions. Until they can beat someone outside their own terrible division, I just can’t trust this team.

Final Score: Buffalo 35, Tennessee 17

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL Showdown $2.25M Monday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry] (BUF vs TEN)


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