Week 7! Time flies when you’re having fun. According to DraftKings Sportsbook, only two games on the main DraftKings NFL slate have an O/U of at least 50 points this week - KC/TEN (56.6) and DET/LAR (50.5). There are three games with a spread of more than 10 points - LAR (-14.5) over DET, ARI (-16.5) over HOU and TB (-13) over CHI.
Six games kick off at 1 p.m. ET while four games are in the afternoon window. I will never understand why it’s not split down the middle. Anyways, let’s dive into the cheaper end of the player pool and find some bargain options for Week 7.
($6,000 and under)
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. Atlanta Falcons, $5,500 – In his return after missing three games, Tua went 33-of-47 for 329 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Before we crown his <bleep>, it was against the Jaguars, who rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA, but it was an encouraging performance nonetheless. This week, he faces a Falcons team that is 30th in pass defense DVOA. This game has a healthy O/U of 47.5 with the Falcons implied for 25 points, so the Dolphins will likely have to be aggressive to maintain contact. The most encouraging aspect of Tua’s Week 6 performance was the three rushes for 22 yards, which included one rush for seven yards in the red zone.
Matt Ryan, Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins, $5,700 – As mentioned in the Tua section, this game has a healthy O/U with sneaky shootout potential if things break right. The Dolphins' strength is their secondary but they have performed well below expectations this season. The unit is 26th in pass defense DVOA and they allowed Trevor Lawrence to throw for 312 yards last week, while Tom Brady eviscerated them for 437 yards the week before. Ryan has attempted at least 35 passes in every game with three games over 40. In the last two games, he’s produced 24.58 and 29.02 DKFP.
Other Options: Derek Carr ($6,000)
($5,000 and under)
J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers, $5,000 – McKissic is the passing down running back for the Football Team. As a result, the DKFP production has been volatile (three games under 5.0 with three games over 16). He has yet to carry the ball 10 times in a game but he has target counts of one, six, two, five, four and 10. The Packers are favored by 9.5 points and are implied to score 29.25 points. McKissic usually sees a 40% snap count share but that number was at 61% last week against the Chiefs. A similar workload could be in the offering once again.
($5,000 and under)
Tee Higgins/Tyler Boyd, Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens, $4,900/$4,700 – This game has an O/U of 47 with the Ravens favored by six points. The Ravens are implied for 26.5 points, so the Bengals will likely have to be aggressive. Plus, the Ravens are 13th in rush defense DVOA. The pass defense for Baltimore is 15th in DVOA but it has been inconsistent. They allowed Derek Carr to pass for 409 yards, Patrick Mahomes for 343 yards and Carson Wentz for 390. In the other three games, they limited the opposing passers to fewer than 200 yards each. Both Higgins and Boyd have median projections that place them in the top 20 wide receivers for this week.
Mecole Hardman, Kansas City Chiefs at Tennessee Titans, $4,300 – The Chiefs are implied for 30.5 points, but that’s third to the Rams and Cardinals! Still, it’s a high number and many, many points should be scored. The Titans are 27th in pass defense DVOA and 17th in adjusted sack rate. Hardman is obviously down on the target totem pole but he plays 60% to 70% of the snaps and has received at least three targets in every game this season with a high of 12. The 4.33 40-yard dash speed allows him to score from anywhere on the field but he’s also garnered two, one, two and one red-zone targets in the past four weeks.
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $4,600 — As much as the coaching staff wants to limit Justin Fields, he’s going to have to be unleashed this week. Tampa Bay is fifth in rush defense DVOA so that is going to be the path of most resistance. The Buccaneers are implied for 30 points so if the Bears actually want to try and win they are going to have to let the young rookie air it out, which is where the Bucs defense has been most vulnerable - 18th in pass defense DVOA. Mooney has target counts of seven, eight, four, seven, five and eight. He’s gone over 100 yards once and scored his first touchdown last week.
Quez Watkins, Philadelphia Eagles at Las Vegas Raiders, $3,900 – The production hasn’t been eye-opening for Watkins this season. He has yet to exceed 50 yards in a game since Week 1 and his highest target count is seven. That said, he did put up 117 yards in the opening weekend and his 4.35 40-yard dash wheels allow him to take it to the house on any play. This game has a healthy O/U of 49.5 with a spread of only three points on DraftKings Sportsbook. There could be plenty of back-and-forth action in this one.
Other Options: Rashod Bateman ($3,400), Bryan Edwards ($4,100)
($4,000 and under)
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers, $3,700 – RSJ has played 93%, 99% and 100% of the snaps the last three weeks. The target count has been four, eight and six. Last week, he hauled in four of six targets for 58 yards and a touchdown. The Football Team will likely be trailing in this one, so plenty of passing should be on the menu. The Packers are 26th in DVOA against the tight end position.
Cole Kmet, Chicago Bears at Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $3,000 – As mentioned in the Mooney section, there should be an elevated passing rate for the Bears in this one. Kmet has target counts of five, four, three, four, one and seven on the season. He has yet to exceed 50 yards receiving in any contest but he did rack up 49 yards last week. He has two red-zone targets on the season and the Buccaneers are 19th in DVOA against tight ends.
Other Options: Anthony Firkser ($3,100)
($2,800 and under)
New York Giants DST vs. Carolina Panthers, $2,500 – Have you seen Sam Darnold ($5,900) play lately? He’s thrown six interceptions over the past three weeks and been sacked 12 times. The Giants are only 23rd in adjusted sack rate, but have you seen Sam Darnold play lately? According to PFF, Carolina is 28th in pass blocking.
Kansas City DST at Tennessee Titans, $2,600 — The probabilities of this being a terrible play are high. That said, it’s defenses and there is so much variance at the position. The reason I’m intrigued by the KC defense is two-fold. The Titans have one of the worst pass defenses in the league, so Patrick Mahomes ($8,400) could go bananas in this one. That would force Ryan Tannehill ($6,400) to respond aggressively, which could provide more opportunities for turnovers. Secondly, Derrick Henry ($9,200) will likely be the most rostered player on the slate since the Chiefs have one of the worst run defenses in the league and he just went ballistic on Monday Night. While Henry will still get his, if opportunities are siphoned away from him due to an elevated passing rate, then his ability to access another ceiling game is also diminished.
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