clock menu more-arrow no yes

Filed under:

NFL Picks for Fantasy Football: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Running Backs, RB Touch and Target Projections for Week 7

Stan Son gives you his top DraftKings fantasy football picks at running back for Week 7 along with their touch and target projections.

It’s Derrick Henry’s world. We are just living in it, gawking in awe. After rumbling roughshod over the Bills on Monday Night, he tops the projections again this week. With six teams on bye, there will be no Ezekiel Elliott, Dalvin Cook, Najee Harris or Austin Ekeler on this slate.

There are still plenty of good options, though, spread throughout the salary structure. We’re starting to get a good idea of some of the best matchups to attack and how workloads will be distributed. Listed below are the RBs that I think will return the best value at their price point, whether as studs or value plays, and their opportunity projections for Week 7 are also included.



Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st+ToC Entry]


Studs

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans vs. Kansas City Chiefs, $9,200

Since his 10.7 DKFP debacle in Week 1, Henry has scored 50.7, 21.27, 24.48, 28.7, 34 and 38.6 DKFP. L. O. L. He’s scored three touchdowns in a game three times this season and has gone over 100 yards in each of the last five games. L. O. L. Now he gets a matchup against a Chiefs defense that is 31st in rush defense DVOA. The ownership level will likely be sky-high, so there will be some merit to fading him. The Titans' pass defense is awful, so what happens if the Chiefs go up by multiple scores? Also, in a playoff game two years ago, Henry was rostered by over 60% of the field and he rushed 19 times for 69 yards and a touchdown in a loss. The probabilities of him failing in this matchup are low but it’s within the range of outcomes.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 24.8 attempts
Receiving: 2.6 Targets; 2 Receptions

Darrell Henderson, Los Angeles Rams vs. Detroit Lions, $6,600

Henderson is coming off his first 20-carry game of the season. While he has yet to exceed 89 yards rushing, he has scored four touchdowns on the season and has 17 carries and three targets in the red zone. The matchup is a fantastic one as the Lions are 26th in rush defense DVOA and the Rams are implied for a slate-high 32.5 points while being favored by a whopping 14.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook. Another 20-carry performance is well within the range of outcomes.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 15.2 attempts
Receiving: 2.5 Targets; 1.9 Receptions

Aaron Jones, Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team, $7,500

Jones has a snap count share of around 60% while AJ Dillon ($4,600) has been garnering around 40% of the snaps. Boo. That obviously caps the upside for Jones. That said, he still gets plenty of high-value touches and is efficient with his touches, so the ceding of looks to Dillon could be a blessing in disguise since he’s able to stay fresher. On the season, he has carry counts of five, 17, 19, 15, 14 and 13. He’s exceeded 100 yards only once but he has garnered two, six, two, four, five and four targets on the season. He’s scored two touchdowns on the ground with four through the air. Jones has a total of 16 carries and seven targets in the red zone.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 14.8 attempts
Receiving: 4.5 Targets; 3.4 Receptions



Values

Mike Davis, Atlanta Falcons at Miami Dolphins, $5,200

Davis is far from sexy and there’s a reason why he is priced at $5,200. He’s carried the ball at least 15 times in a game only once this season and has exceeded 50 yards on the ground only once. That said, he has scored at least 10 DKFP in every game and he’s involved in the passing game and in the red zone. On the season, he has target counts of six, seven, four, two and five with 10 rushes and four targets in the red zone. The Falcons are implied for a healthy 25 points in this one so there should be plenty of opportunities for Davis to score some fantasy goodies.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 10.9 attempts
Receiving: 4.5 Targets; 3.4 Receptions

J.D. McKissic, Washington Football Team at Green Bay Packers, $5,000

McKissic is game-script dependent as he is the pass-catching running back for the Football Team. Well, the Packers are implied for 29 points and favored by 9.5 points, so McKissic should be on the field plenty. Normally, he has a 40% snap share but last week against the Chiefs, that number was above 60%. McKissic has three big games on his resume this season - 20.3, 16.9 and 19 DKFP. In those games, he caught five of six targets for 83 yards, all five of his targets for 44 yards and touchdown while hauling in eight of 10 targets for 65 yards.

Projections (courtesy of Razzball)
Rushing: 2.2 attempts
Receiving: 3.7 Targets; 2.8 Receptions


Set your DraftKings fantasy football Millionaire lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st+ToC Entry]


Place your NFL bets at DraftKings Sportsbook and bet online by downloading the DraftKings Sportsbook app.


Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.


I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat. (CT).

21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.