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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Brewers vs. Dodgers Showdown on October 2

Zach Thompson gives his top lineup advice for Saturday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Brewers and Dodgers, which starts at 9:10 p.m. ET.

MLB: Milwaukee Brewers at Cleveland Indians David Richard-USA TODAY Sports

This week’s Saturday night Showdown contest on DraftKings is the second game of a National League series between a pair of playoff teams, the Milwaukee Brewers and the Los Angeles Dodgers. While the Dodgers are in the lead for the top NL Wild Card spot and are getting ready to likely host the Wild Card game, the Brewers have wrapped up the NL Central and are also setting things up for their postseason run. Milwaukee has been sliding a little bit lately, going 4-8 over their past 12 games while the Dodgers have gone 9-8 over their past 17 and remain mathematically in the hunt for the division, trailing the Giants by two games with two games remaining. The Dodgers kept that slim divisional hope alive by taking the first game of the series, 8-6, on Friday despite trailing by four runs early. Trea Turner ($15,300 CP; $10,200) homered twice, including a grand slam, as Los Angeles rallied after Clayton Kershaw had to leave early with an injury.

The projected pitching matchup is between a pair of outstanding starting pitchers looking to do a final tuneup before the playoffs as Corbin Burnes ($15,600 CP; $10,400) takes on Julio Urías ($15,000; $10,000). Urías has a chance to get his 20th win in this outing and has put together a very solid 3.01 ERA, 3.16 FIP and 9.43 K/9 in his 31 starts. Burnes has also been impressive with a 12.55 K/9 rate to go with his 11-4 record, 2.29 ERA and 1.55 FIP. It should be a well-pitched matchup and runs could be hard to come by. Due to the strong starting pitching, DraftKings Sportsbook has set the over/under at just 7.0 runs and made the hometown Dodgers -145 favorites on the moneyline.

Which players are specifically set up for success in this matchup? Let’s take a look at how to construct your DraftKings lineups for Saturday night’s Showdown contest.


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Captain’s Picks

Corbin Burnes ($15,600 CP) - Even though he hasn’t gotten as much run support (and therefore wins) as Urías, Burnes has been extremely effective this season. He had 18 quality starts in 27 outings and has piled up 230 strikeouts in 165 innings, including at least nine strikeouts in four of his past five starts. He is 9-0 over his past 19 starts with a paltry 2.28 DRA. His strikeout potential gives him an extremely high ceiling, and he has reached over 30 DKFP three times in his past five outings. Another reason I like Burnes is that he typically works deep into games, going at least six full innings in eight of his past nine starts. He also is relatively low risk since his strikeouts can help even an “off” day still produce solid fantasy results.

While the Dodgers lineup is well-stocked with power, they only ranked 15th in the Majors in runs scored in September. As a general rule, they don’t strike out a ton, but I think this will be a case where good pitching gets the best of good hitting and Burnes puts together another strong showing.

Lorenzo Cain ($8,700 CP) - With two strong SP like this, it’s definitely a consideration to stack both as flex plays. If that’s the strategy you go with, you’ll need an affordable hitter as your captain, and Cain is a cheap option that still brings plenty of upside. He has often been left out of the OF shuffle this season in Milwaukee, but he is finishing the season strong. Since the start of September, he is 19-for-58 (.328) with two home runs, a .172 ISO and a .393 wOBA. He has three multi-hit games in his past four starts, so assuming he’s in the lineup, he could be a nice way to get some production from your Captain while also giving you salary flexibility to stack the SPs.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $10K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (MIL vs LAD)


Value Plays

AJ Pollock ($7,600) - Whenever the Dodgers are in a showdown contest, it can be a little tricky to find value plays since the top part of their lineup is so stacked up with expensive stars. If you need a value bat from the Dodgers’ order, though, Pollock is a nice one to target since he has been hot lately and costs under $8K. In his past six starts, Pollock has hit four home runs including a two-homer performance earlier this week that resulted in 30 DKFP. In his 114 games this season, he has 20 home runs, a .238 ISO and a .360 wOBA. That would be a new career-high in wOBA since he has continually made good contact this season, even though his ISO has dipped a little since last year. Pollock is often underrated, making him a nice target in this salary range.

Manny Piña ($6,400) - With another lefty on the hill for the Dodgers, Piña will likely get the call behind the plate since Omar Narváez ($8,000) has been struggling. Piña has hit four home runs in his past 10 games giving him 13 homers and a .257 ISO on the year. His average is low overall but slightly better against lefties, who he has a robust .374 wOBA against on the season. If he gets the start behind the plate, he’s a great way to save and still get plenty of upside.


Fades

Christian Yelich ($7,000) - It hasn’t been a great season for Yelich and his average, ISO and wRC+ have all dropped significantly. Against left-handed pitchers, he has been even worse, hitting just .194 with only two home runs, a .136 ISO and .279 wOBA. He showed some signs of breaking out of his slump in August but has fallen back off since Sept. 1, hitting .213 with only one home run. Yelich still has power potential and intriguing upside, but playing him against a lefty isn’t a good idea anymore since most of what you’re paying for is name recognition.


The Outcome

Since neither team has much to gain or lose as far as playoff positioning at this point, it’s hard to know for sure that both will be “all in” on winning this game. While the aggression is uncertain, there’s plenty of talent with upside to consider. Hopefully, both star starting pitchers bring their “A” games and we get an awesome playoff preview. Burnes has been even better than Urías for much of the season, and I don’t see the Dodgers pushing Urías to go deep into the game while Burnes normally does. Ultimately, I think the Brewers get enough runs late, probably off the Dodgers’ overworked bullpen, to get a win for Burnes and keep Urías from win No. 20.

Final Score: Brewers 4, Dodgers 1

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $10K Extra Inning [$2K to 1st] (MIL vs LAD)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is z.thompson) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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