Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Stacks
New York Giants vs. Carolina Panthers
Daniel Jones ($5,400) - Sterling Shepard ($5,600)
We have three elite teams with implied team totals over 31 points in Week 7, so the name of the game here is keep it simple. We’re looking for a cheaper, under-owned stack to play in GPPs that will allow us to fit in bigger star players who have massive upside this week. Cue Jones and Shepard’s music. The pair will only cost $11K, and on a week where the likes of Derrick Henry ($9,200), Tyreek Hill ($8,600) and Cooper Kupp ($8,400) will all be high on your shopping list, that’s enough to get us interested.
Jones had a horrible Week 6, but it was almost an inevitable outcome after getting in almost no practice and coming back from a concussion suffered the week before. The Giants quarterback certainly can flop with the best of them, but we can’t forget about his inherent upside after poor weeks either. Jones has already posted two games with 29 or more DKFP, and that puts him in the elite company of Patrick Mahomes ($8,400), Kyler Murray ($8,500) and Lamar Jackson ($7,400), who have also broken 29 DKFP exactly twice this season.
Shepard is in a great spot, too. The smooth-running wide receiver returned to action last week and received a team-high 14 targets. He only produced 76 yards against a tough Rams secondary but escaped healthy and will again be the main weapon available for Daniel Jones given Kenny Golladay (questionable - did not practice Thursday) and Kadarius Toney (doubtful) seem likely to miss this game.
As far as matchups go, Carolina’s pass defense is starting to look like a great one to attack. The Giants defense heads into this game averaging 39 pass attempts per game and face off against the Panthers’ funnel to the pass defense, who have seen the 12th-most opponent pass attempts this season. The Panthers have also now ceded three or more passing touchdowns in two of their last three games and four touchdowns to opposing wideouts over that span. Without the presence of a true shutdown corner, Shepard should be able to improve on his efficiency from last week, and with the Giants defense currently giving up massive yards through the air and ground, we should see a more prepared Jones benefit from another high-volume passing spot. Take the savings and build around this beleaguered Giants duo for Week 7.
Just Missed: Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500) - Jaylen Waddle ($5,600)
Quarterback
Tua Tagovailoa, Miami Dolphins vs. Atlanta Falcons ($5,500)
There’s another cheap quarterback this week you could think about using, and he’s one who has been in the news this week. Tagovailoa may be on his way out of Miami soon, but he’s scheduled to start for the Dolphins and is coming off a week where he attempted 47 passes vs. Jacksonville. The Dolphins defense is in shambles, and the Dolphins offense can’t run the ball — they’re sixth-worst in yards per rush — which has caused Miami to turn into one of the highest volume passing offenses in the league.
The move has been more reactionary than planned, but the Dolphins’ misfortune has been good for Tagovailoa’s fantasy production, as he landed 329 yards and two touchdowns vs. the Jaguars. A similar type of week could be coming on the fast track with the Falcons are coming off a bye. The bottom line: Miami can’t run, can’t stop anyone on defense and will face a rested Falcons team. It should make for another great fantasy environment for Tagovailoa, who may push for 40+ passes once again.
Just Missed: Matt Ryan ($5,700)
Running Back
Josh Jacobs, Las Vegas Raiders vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($6,200)
The Raiders are averaging just 3.3 yards per carry so far, which is last in the league in efficiency. Volume trumps efficiency in daily fantasy, though, and we’re finally starting to see a winner in the Raiders’ committee. Jacobs has played on over 60% of the snaps in three straight games and has seen Kenyan Drake ($4,900) relegated to just a handful of snaps each week. Jacobs hasn’t hit a breakout week yet, but it is coming. His carries have gone up in each of the Raiders’ last three games, and he’s also seen 11 targets over that span.
The opponent here is a perfect spot for such a breakout to happen. Teams playing the Eagles are averaging 33 rush attempts against them on the year (the highest in the league), as the Eagles pace of play (second-fastest in the league) — and own ineptitude on offense — has allowed teams to run against them at will. With Leonard Fournette ($6,400) trending towards being heavy chalk, Jacobs sets up as a potentially great pivot in a matchup where he should approach season highs in rush attempts and have multiple shots at finding the end zone.
Just Missed: Damien Harris ($5,700)
Wide Receiver
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team ($8,900)
If we’re taking some value and lower ownership at other positions, its certainly fine to pay up for what is likely to be a popular Davante Adams in Week 7. Adams is still second in the league in targets through six weeks despite only seeing five come his way in Week 6. Washington has been an absolute gold mine for elite wide receivers this year, as they allowing 7.7 yards per pass attempt so far, the sixth-worst mark in the league. They’ve now allowed multiple touchdown catches to opposing wideouts in three of their last four games and have allowed 25 red zone trips to opponents — the second-highest mark in the league through six weeks.
Wide receivers have connected for 98 receptions vs. Washington already this year (the most in the league), and teams are taking advantage, as opponents vs. Washington are averaging 40.3 pass attempts against in 2021. The Packers enter here with a 29-point implied team total and a banged-up defense that should help keep Adams involved later into the game. Adams should be the big shiny object you pay up for this week, and while he’ll be popular, he’s unlikely to rise to “uber chalk” status given the plethora of other juicy fantasy matchups on this slate.
Just Missed: Robert Woods ($6,400)
Tight End
C.J. Uzomah, Cincinnati Bengals at Baltimore Ravens ($3,000)
It’s completely fine to pay up for one of the top two names at tight end this week, and I half-suspect we’ll see Darren Waller ($6,700) break out of his slump vs. the Eagles. The low-priced GPP target for me this week, though, is definitely Uzomah, who has already broken through for one 26.5-DKFP game this year. The tight end has landed multiple catches in five of the Bengals’ six 2021 games, and most importantly, faces off against a Ravens team who loves to give up receptions to the tight end position.
Through six weeks, in fact, nobody has allowed more receptions to opposing tight ends than the Ravens, and they’ve also ceded four touchdowns and the fourth-most yards to the position. Even the misfit tight end groupings the Chargers and Colts employ were able to grab six or more catches against this unit, and it’s important to note only two receptions have been made this season by a Bengals tight end other than Uzomah. With teams tending to throw the ball a ton vs. Baltimore (38.2 times per game), Uzomah may challenge for his season high in both targets (6) and catches (5), making him an ideal min-price type of punt play in GPPs this week.
Just Missed: Darren Waller ($6,700)
DST
Las Vegas Raiders vs. Philadelphia Eagles ($3,000)
The Raiders enter this spot as just -3 home favorites, but their DST is certainly in a good spot here against a struggling Eagles offense. Jalen Hurts ($6,900) is a fantasy slot machine that always pays, but he’s also been a good opponent for opposing defenses. The second-year playmaker has eight turnovers on the season already (four fumbles and four interceptions) and takes on a Raiders DST here who has been much more opportunistic in creating turnovers.
Las Vegas is already halfway to its 15 turnover total from last season (which was second-worst in the NFL) and are coming off a game where they forced the Broncos quarterbacks into three interceptions — and also grabbed a fumble recovery. Vegas’ main improvement has come in the pass rush department, where they now rank sixth in the NFL with 2.7 sacks per game, a big improvement over their 1.7 per game mark form last year. Against a turnover-prone quarterback, this unit is in a high-upside spot and makes for a good tournament pivot off the sure to be popular Cardinals ($3,100).
Just missed: Atlanta Falcons ($2,700)
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