Week 7 is shaping up to be a wild week. We have three massive, double-digit favorites on the board (Rams, Buccaneers and Cardinals) and a number of big teams on byes. The Bills, Cowboys, Jaguars, Vikings, Steelers and Chargers are all on their respective bye week, which brings the main slate to 10 games.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Arizona Cardinals (-17.5; -1500) vs. Houston Texans (+850)
Betting trends:
Cardinals 2021 home record: 2-0
Cardinals 2021 home record when favored: 2-0
Cardinals 2021 ATS record: 5-1
Cardinals 2021 ATS record when favored: 2-1
Texans 2021 road record: 0-3
Texans 2021 road record as underdogs: 0-3
Texans 2021 ATS record: 3-3
Texans 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 1-2
I mean, woof.
The Cardinals may not go 17-0 this season but I don’t think the Texans will be the team to knock them off and the odds appropriately reflect that. The Texans are going to have an extremely tough time stopping this Cardinals offense, as this defense is allowing an average of 28.7 points per game. Their coverage and pass rush are both ranked below league average (23rd & 18th according to PFF.com) that it doesn’t bode well in this matchup. The Cardinals are almost an even 50/50 on passing and rushing plays, as they’re passing 52% of the time and rushing 48%. The Texans run defense, as you likely expect, is also one of the worst in the league. With that in mind, the Cardinals team total in this game sits at 32.5 (-125), which amazingly isn’t even the highest on the slate. That belongs to the Rams, who are at 33.5 (-110).
Taking the moneyline for the Cardinals is clearly not an enticing bet at -1500. I mean, people scoff at taking a line at say -175, let alone -1500. That said, one bet I am looking at is first half points for the Cardinals at 16.5 (-140). The Cardinals currently top the league in first half points, averaging 18.7. Only the Bills have averaged over 18 in the first half at 18.5. With a number of ways for the Cardinals to score against this Texans defense, they should be able to exceed this total of 16.5. The juice is on the over in this bet while the under is currently at +110. I like taking the Cardinals in the spot to have some skin in this game that is expected to be a huge blowout.
Other notable favorites: Detroit Lions (+600) at Los Angeles Rams (-14.5; -900)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
Kansas City Chiefs (-5.5; -235) at Tennessee Titans (+190) Over/Under: 58
Betting trends:
Chiefs 2021 road record: 2-1
Chiefs 2021 road record as favorites: 2-1
Chiefs 2021 Over/Under record: 4-2
Chiefs 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 4-2
Titans 2021 home record: 2-1
Titans 2021 home record as underdogs: 1-0
Titans 2021 Over/Under record: 4-2
Titans 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 2-0
We thought the total for the Chargers and Football Team was insane, this one tops it. This total has done nothing but go up, as it was 56 points last week. It sits at 58 as of Thursday, making this the highest over/under we’ve seen this season. Last week was a huge letdown if you were hoping for points in that Chiefs-Football Team game, as the Chiefs held them to just 13 points. Thus, the Chiefs average points allowed fell to 29.3, which is the fifth-highest. The Titans are also giving up a ton of points, with an average of 26.8 per game.
The Titans secondary has arguably been one of the worst in the league, as they’ve allowed the most receiving yards (1418), touchdowns (10) and are tied for most receptions (98) to opposing wide receivers. This, of course, sets up for incredible individual matchups for guys like Tyreek Hill ($8,600), who is still battling a quad injury. Should he take the field, he’ll see a healthy dose of CB Elijah Molden, who has been targeted against 12 times allowing nine receptions for 149 yards and two touchdowns.
The Chiefs will be tasked with attempting to stop Derrick Henry ($9,200), who went over 100 rushing yards in his fifth straight game last week against the Bills. The Chiefs have kept opposing teams to under 100 rushing in four straight games but they’re gaining healthy yardage on average. The 4.7 YPC by opposing teams is the fourth-best mark, although teams have only carried the ball 108 times (25th) against this team. The Titans are running the ball at one of the highest rates in the league, doing so 46.5% of the time.
Other notable total: Detroit Lions (+600) at Los Angeles Rams (-14.5; -900) O/U 51
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NFL Week 7 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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, October 24th, 9:30 a.m. ET
NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team, $7,500 — Rodgers is going to get very little attention this week with the board as dynamic as it is. Yet, he’s in one of the best matchups against an extremely poor Football Team secondary. At $7,500, Rodgers is sandwiched between Tom Brady ($7,700) and Lamar Jackson ($7,400), both of whom project to be more popular options. Aside from the putrid Week 1 performance in which he scored 3.32 DKFP, Rodgers is averaging 23.4 DKFP, 260 passing yards and at least two touchdowns since Week 2. The Football Team enter this week having allowing the most passing yards, touchdowns and DKFP to opposing quarterbacks. The cherry on top will be the extremely low ownership you’ll get on Rodgers, who has just as high of a ceiling as some of the more popular options on this slate.
Player props for Aaron Rodgers on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Passing Yards: 253.5 (over -115 under -115)
Passing TDs: 1.5 (over -220 under +160)
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Davante Adams, Green Bay Packers vs. Washington Football Team, $8,900 — Of course, when you’re using Rodgers, we have only one realistic option to pair him with. Adams enters this week averaging a massive 22.3 DKFP, which is the third-highest mark amongst all receivers. He’s coming off a quiet game against the Bears in which he caught just four of his five targets for 89 yards while also failing to reach the end zone. The majority of his yardage came on one of those catches, going for 41 yards. With that said, the ceiling for Adams is always sky high and he has the potential to reach that in this matchup. Adams should see the majority of his coverage against CB Benjamin St-Juste, who has been targeted against 24 times, allowing 14 receptions for 211 yards (15.1 YPR) and two touchdowns. In a season where we’ve seen Adams go over 100 receiving yards in three of his six games, I would side on that potentially happening again in this game. Only the Titans have allowed more receiving yards than the Football Team this season for an average of 210 per game.
Player props for Davante Adams on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Receiving Yards: 95.5 (over -115 under -115)
Receptions: 7.5 (over -135 under +100)
Longest Receptions: 26.5 (over -125 under -105)
TD Scorer: First +550 Last +550 Anytime -165
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