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MLB Best Bets: Baseball Picks, Predictions, Odds to Consider on DraftKings Sportsbook for October 22

Nick Friar gives his best bets on DraftKings Sportsbook for Friday’s MLB betting card.

There are a few ways to attack Game 6 of the ALCS via DraftKings Sportsbook beyond the backing one team to win. Here are my favorite picks for Red Sox-Astros.

If you want to sweat out these picks with me, follow me on Twitter: @Nick_Friar.

Boston Red Sox at Houston Astros

Total over 8.5 runs -120

I can’t believe the total is lower than the one we saw in Game 5. Sure, Framber Valdez spun a gem, but his offense backed him by hitting Friday’s over on DraftKings Sportsbook by themselves. And one team scoring nine-plus runs in a game hasn’t exactly been a rare occurrence throughout the 2021 ALCS. It’s happened in every game but the opener. Even still, Boston and Houston combined for nine runs in Game 1.

Now, as much as Valdez was able to flip the script on the Red Sox Wednesday, Luis Garcia won’t be able to do the same. The right-hander did put together some good numbers throughout the regular season (3.30 ERA and 3.63 FIP), but he has been miserable since the start of the postseason. He started the one game Houston lost in the ALDS, giving up five runs over 2 2/3 innings, and then somehow did worse in Game 2 of the ALCS, surrendering five runs on two hits (one being a home run) and three walks in just one inning of work.

While I do expect Nathan Eovaldi to be good enough for the Red Sox to win, Astros hitters have been tough on the right-hander this series. After scoring three over five frames in Game 2, Houston tagged Eovaldi for four runs on two hits and two walks in just 2/3 of an inning in Game 4.

Enrique Hernandez over 1.5 total bases +165

While his bat has gone quiet alongside his teammates’ in the last two games, Boston’s center fielder has proven he’s as resilient as anyone in this lineup. But there was something more significant I noticed when watching the Championship Series his old team is trying to win.

On Thursday, Chris Taylor became the second Dodger to ever hit three home runs in a postseason game. Hernandez also did that for the Dodgers in 2017. Only 11 other players have done that in MLB history. Now, that’s not to say a performance from four years ago means Hernandez is going to be the guy who carries Boston to a Game 6 win on Friday. But, it’s further proof his clutch play this postseason hasn’t been a fluke. He came up big for the Dodgers in the 2017 NLCS and showed up again in the 2020 NLCS. He was due for a regression at some point, but I can’t see his two-game, 1-for-9 stretch continuing with Boston in a do-or-die situation.

José Altuve over 1.5 total bases -105

Given the way this series has gone for Altuve, I’m surprised we’re not able to get his total bases prop at a better value. He’s gone 3-for-24 this series after an explosive ALDS vs. the White Sox. Two of those hits have been home runs, so he’s still got something going.

But, Altuve’s slump is part of why I like this pick on DraftKings Sportsbook Friday. I’m big on backing good hitters in the midst of a dry spell when they’re about to face a pitcher they’ve hit well throughout their career. Houston’s second baseman may have gone 0-for-2 against Eovaldi in Game 2, but he’s still 7-for-25 in his career against the righty. More importantly, four of those hits have gone for extra bases — three being homers.

Red Sox +100

Both offenses should get their pound of flesh in this one, but I don’t think this series ends on Friday. Valdez helped out the bullpen immensely in Game 5, but Boston also got to Houston’s relievers earlier in this series — so let’s not act like a lock-down group will follow up Garcia in Game 6.

As suffocating as Houston’s offense can be, the 2021 Red Sox have proven resilient time and time again. That’s something a team needs to win on the road in the postseason, which they’ve done twice in four chances. Furthermore, Houston turning back to a struggling right-hander in Garcia plays to Boston’s advantage in a big way.

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