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There is a free $5K Sportsbook Pool for NFL Week 7. You have to pick each of the games on Sunday against the spread, and the higher you finish on the leaderboard, the more money you earn.
Let’s take a look at all the contests slated for Sunday, including my five personal favorites.
Cincinnati Bengals @ Baltimore Ravens (-6.5)
The Pick: Bengals +6.5
Public perception of the Ravens has gotten a little out of control recently. They did beat the Chiefs and dismantle the Chargers, but they’ve also played some subpar contests. They lost in Week 1 to the Raiders, needed a 66-yard field goal to beat the Lions and trailed by 16 points in the fourth quarter vs. the Colts. In other words, this team is far from a juggernaut.
They’ll face a stiff test this week vs. the Bengals, who are better than the casual football fan realizes. They rank 13th in Football Outsiders DVOA, including fifth on the defensive side of the ball. They’ve been particularly stout against the run, which should serve them well against Lamar Jackson and co.
The sharps have like the Bengals all season, and this week is no exception. I’m riding with them.
The Pick: Packers -6.5
There are very few safer bets than Aaron Rodgers as a home favorite. He’s historically been the best quarterback in football in that split since entering the league, posting a record of 56-32-3 against the spread. That includes a mark of 2-0 so far this season.
The Football Team does match up well with the Packers, who have struggled against the run and will be without top corner Jaire Alexander. That said, their offense could not move the ball against the Chiefs last week, who were arguably the worst defensive team in the league prior to that outing. If they couldn’t find success in that matchup, I don’t have much faith in their ability to do it against the Packers.
Additionally, we’re getting a bit of spread value here. The Packers have moved to -8.0 on DraftKings Sportsbook, but we can still get them at -6.5 in this contest.
Atlanta Falcons @ Miami Dolphins (-2.5)
The Pick: Falcons +2.5
Speaking of spread value, we’re getting quite a bit here with the Falcons. They’ve moved to 2.5-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook, but we’re getting 2.5 points in this pool.
The Dolphins will have to overcome the tall task of playing a football game the week after playing in London. Most teams opt to use their bye week after playing overseas, but the Dolphins opted for a bye week later in the year. That could be beneficial down the road, but it will probably hurt them this week.
They’re also dealing with a host of injuries at the moment. Both of their starting cornerbacks missed last week’s game vs. the Jaguars, and they’re currently questionable vs. the Falcons. They are expected to play after getting in limited practices this week, but they might not be at 100%. Their top wide receiver DeVante Parker is also questionable after sitting last week.
Meanwhile, the Falcons will get arguably their best offensive player back in the lineup in Calvin Ridley. I don’t think the Falcons are a particularly good team, but they have a lot in their favor this week.
Detroit Lions @ Los Angeles Rams (-13.5)
The Pick: Rams -13.5
This is one of the largest mismatches in the league this week. The Rams have been extremely impressive so far this season, while the Lions are still searching for their first win. They’ve had some close losses, but they still rank just 26th in DVOA.
This line has ballooned to 16.5 points on DraftKings Sportsbook, and the Rams are getting support from the sharps and the squares. They’ve received 68% of the spread bets and 85% of the spread dollars, so this line could get even higher before kickoff. This one could be a laugher.
Indianapolis Colts @ San Francisco 49ers (-4.5)
The Pick: Colts +4.5
The Colts are just 2-4 this season, but they’re better than their record indicates. They’ve faced a tough schedule, and most of their losses have been competitive. They should’ve won vs. the Ravens on Monday Night Football, and they also lost by three points to the Rams. The Colts had a winnable game last week vs. the Texans and thoroughly dominated, winning by a final margin of 31-3.
They’ll face another stiff test this week vs. the 49ers, who will have Jimmy Garoppolo back at starting quarterback. That’s probably an upgrade over Trey Lance, who did not fare well in the first start of his career. Still, this feels like a smidge too many points. I’m not convinced the 49ers are a better team than the Colts on a neutral field, but that’s what this current line is suggesting.
Here’s who I’m targeting for the rest of the Sunday games. Remember, we’re looking to beat the competition and climb up the leaderboard, so I’ll be looking to gain leverage on the field and fade the public in situations where I don’t see a huge edge on the spread.
New York Jets @ New England Patriots (-7.5)
Pick: Jets +7.5
Carolina Panthers (-2.5) @ New York Giants
Pick: Giants +2.5
Kansas City Chiefs (-3.5) @ Tennessee Titans
Pick: Titans +3.5
Philadelphia Eagles @ Las Vegas Raiders (-2.5)
Pick: Raiders -2.5
Houston Texans @ Arizona Cardinals (-14.5)
Pick: Texans +14.5
Chicago Bears @ Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-9.5)
Pick: Buccaneers -9.5
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