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Fantasy Football Picks: Colts vs. 49ers DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Reid Fowler preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Colts and the 49ers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Sunday Night’s matchup will involve a couple of two-win teams when the Indianapolis Colts travel to Santa Clara, Calif., to face the San Francisco 49ers. The home team gets back a couple of key players on offense who were out due to injury, mainly their starting QB, Jimmy Garoppolo ($15,900 CP; $10.600). The 49ers’ defense should feel “good” even after a loss in Week 5, holding the Arizona Cardinals to just 17 points (the Cardinals have scored more than 31 points in every other game). After losing their first three games of the season, the Colts have gone 2-1 over their past three games, mainly thanks to a renewed focus on their run game and their QB not turning the ball over.

Let’s look at this game from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (IND vs SF)



SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Jonathan Taylor ($16,500 CP) - Taylor currently sits as the RB4 in DKFP on the season and has averaged 17 touches and three targets over the previous three games. Taylor’s productivity in the passing game has been stellar, ranking seventh in receiving yards (35 yards per game) and fifth in yards per route run (2.63). He’s also first in red-zone touches at 5.0 per game. The 49ers aren’t terrible against opposing running backs, giving up 24.4 DKFP per game, which is essentially the middle of the pack. Still, Taylor is playing well and his snap share has increased from 44% in Week 4 to 63.8% in Week 6. He’s also run 17 more routes than Nyheim Hines ($8,400 CP; $5,600) over the previous two weeks.

Elijah Mitchell ($12,300 CP) - The Colts haven’t allowed much on the ground to opposing backfields, giving up 18.7 DKFP per game. Still, you should consider the starting RBs in this matchup and, when healthy and active this season, Mitchell has been the starter for the Niners, recording over 60% of the snaps. The 49ers rank ninth in team rush plays per week, and Mitchell holds the sixth-best opportunity share in the NFL (74.2%). The 49ers are four-point home favorites, and he’ll get most of the carries and red-zone rushing opportunities with Garoppolo back under center this week. The forecast is calling for heavy rain and wind, and if that’s the case, Mitchell and the run game could be featured more heavily.



FLEX Plays

Deebo Samuel ($9,600) - He’s been the only consistent performer in the 49ers’ offense and getting Jimmy G back under center should help Deebo’s upside. In the first four weeks with Garoppolo as the starter, Samuel finished as WR3 in Week 1 and WR2 in Week 4. He’s also got the second-highest target share in the league (35.9%) and a 33.3% red-zone rate this season. Samuel ranks fourth in fantasy points per route run (0.73) and first in yards after the catch.

Ross Dwelley ($4,800) - He’s a cheaper option who could provide some salary relief if you’re looking for it this week. Dwelly inherits most of George Kittle’s snaps, recording 88.1% against Arizona last week. He ran 19 routes and saw two targets, so Dwelley is a punt play who could get in the end zone.


Fades

Nyheim Hines ($5,600) - His snaps have slowly decreased since Week 3, dropping from 52.6% to 23.4% last week against the Texans. The game script didn’t allow for Hines to have any work in a blowout win against Houston, but even in a close game against the Ravens, he was only in on 34.4% of the snaps. While that’s not terribly low, the 10 routes and one target are, leading to Hines finishing with only 3.2 DKFP. Hines should again play second-fiddle to Taylor in this crucial matchup.


THE OUTCOME

Since 2018, the 49ers are 3-1 straight-up after a bye with a margin of victory of 7.5 points. The Colts are playing well, but are 1-2 on the road this season and Carson Wentz sports a 77.6 passer rating under pressure. The 49ers are ranked fourth in sack conversion, and the pressure should get Wentz into more trouble situations.

Final Score: San Francisco 49ers 24, Indianapolis Colts 20

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1M Sunday Night Showdown [$250K to 1st] (IND vs SF)


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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.


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