It’s sort of funny to think about this game through the prism of the last decade. You could argue that no two NFC teams have been more stable and more consistent within that span than the New Orleans Saints and the Seattle Seahawks. However, on this Monday in late October, we somehow find ourselves staring down a quarterback matchup featuring Jameis Winston ($11,800) and Geno Smith ($9,400). How did we get here? Which timeline is this?
Well, in any case, let’s break it all down from a Showdown perspective.
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SHOWDOWN STRATEGY
Captain’s Picks
Alvin Kamara ($19,200 CP) - I think it’s fair to say that Kamara is properly priced on this slate. Yes, the former third-round pick isn’t quite seeing the same insane target share he was consistently getting back in the Drew Brees days; but through five weeks of action, Kamara sat second behind only Derrick Henry in overall rushing attempts (94). It’s hard to say volume is a concern with a straight face. Kamara is also logging more offensive snaps than ever before, registering at least an 83% rate in each of the Saints’ past four contests. The 26-year-old should be able to do some special things against a Seahawks D/ST ($2,800) that’s been rather generous to opposing RBs so far in 2021. In fact, Seattle’s surrendered the second-most DKFP per game to the position, while its allowed the most rushing yards per contest of any NFC team (140.8). Finally, it’s worth knowing that Taysom Hill (concussion) has been ruled out for Week 7, which means no one’s around to vulture Kamara’s red zone touches. I honestly hate how important Hill’s absence is, but here we are.
Saints D/ST ($8,700 CP) - New Orleans’ defense has been smothering through five weeks. It ranks as the third-best defense in all of football according to DVOA, and it’s not hard to see why Football Outsiders’ metric loves the Saints on that side of the ball, as the team is conceding the fourth-fewest points per drive in the NFL (1.63). New Orleans has also done a fantastic job at creating turnovers in 2021, with the unit one of just five in the league forcing at least two takeaways per game. Considering that Seattle’s offensive line has posted the fourth-worst adjusted sack rate entering play in Week 7 (9.2%), it’s not hard to imagine that the Saints will be able to get pressure and wreck some more havoc. I mean, as mentioned above, we’re dealing with Geno Smith. He’s not quite Russell Wilson (finger).
FLEX Plays
DK Metcalf ($10,000) - Entering Week 7, there were 25 wide receivers with at least 30 receptions. Of those 25, only Mike Williams was averaging more PPR points per touch than Metcalf (3.39). That’s about as glowing a testament as I can give to the big-play ability of the Mississippi product. I can’t really envision myself Captaining any asset on Seattle’s side of this Showdown slate, yet you’d better believe that I’ll still be getting exposure to Metcalf in the FLEX spot. I truly believe there’s more than a few scenarios on Monday where the Seahawks are trailing for a majority of the script, leaving a lot of second half volume for the third-year wideout.
Kenny Stills ($1,600) - The Saints’ WR corps is incredibly depleted right now, with Michael Thomas (ankle), Deonte Harris (hamstring) and Tre’Quan Smith (hamstring) are all currently nursing injuries (though Smith was designated to return from IR earlier this week). That doesn’t leave many warm bodies for Winston to throw to on a given day aside from Marquez Callaway ($8,600). However, Stills did show a little something back in Week 5. While the veteran finished the game with just two catches and 3.8 DKFP, Stills racked up a respectable five targets and wound up playing the second-highest snap share of any New Orleans wide receiver (71.4%). With Seattle allowing the seventh-most DKFP per contest to opposing wideouts, there’s definitely a path for Stills to have an impact on Monday’s festivities. He’s worth a look, particularly at his bargain price point.
Fades
Alex Collins ($7,400) - Right off the top, this is just a terrible matchup for Collins, who will be active for Monday’s game, according to Pete Carroll. The Saints own the NFC’s best run defense by DVOA and they’ve surrendered the fewest adjusted line yards per opponent carry of any team in the league (3.14). Collins was able to hit the 100-yard bonus in a similarly tough matchup against the Steelers last weekend, but I doubt lightning strikes twice, especially with script likely working against Seattle’s rushing attack. Then there’s the matter of Rashad Penny ($2,600; calf). Penny has never come close to justifying his first-round price tag, but the RB is set to come off short-term injured reserve and play in this Week 7 contest. Now, in no way am I suggesting that Penny is suddenly the viable asset in the Seahawks’ backfield, yet it would be silly to assume he won’t at least have a role. Add in any lingering effects from Collins’ groin issue and you’re simply left with an unappealing DFS situation.
THE OUTCOME
Aside from blowing a huge late lead and losing in overtime to the Giants in Week 4, the Saints have pretty much taken care of business so far in 2021. Their defense is a force, they’re ranked eighth overall by DVOA and they’re coming off their bye. Sean Payton also tends to just beat the bad teams, with New Orleans sitting at 11-3 ATS in its past 14 contests against opponents below .500. At the end of the day, I don’t think a Geno Smith-led offense will be able to keep pace.
Final Score: New Orleans 27, Seattle 14
Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $1.5M Monday Night Showdown [$500K to 1st] (NO vs SEA)
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