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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Braves vs. Astros Showdown on October 26

Pearce Dietrich gives his top lineup advice for Tuesday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Braves and Astros, which starts at 8:09 p.m. ET.

The Braves reached the World Series by beating some of the best pitchers in baseball, but their pitching staff did not face well-rounded lineups. Other than in a blowout loss, the Astros’ offense has been the most potent this postseason — 67 runs in 10 games. Will the Braves’ pitching staff be able to ground the Astros’ offense or will the Houston bats continue to blast off?



Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros

Captain’s Picks

Yordan Alvarez ($14,100 CP) — Hits are great, but on Showdown slates, DFS players need home runs. Actually, Alvarez checks both boxes. He has 15 postseason hits (third-most) and a .747 SLG (second to Kiké Hernández). The ALCS MVP crushed right-handed pitching this season — .368 wOBA, .256 ISO, 137 wRC+ and a 39% hard contact rate. Charlie Morton was excellent against left-handed batters this season (3.14 xFIP), but every pitcher Alvarez has faced in this postseason has been terrific. In fact, Morton might be one of easiest matchups for Alvarez in this postseason.

Kyle Tucker ($14,400 CP) — Houston’s pitching has not been reliable and Atlanta’s pitchers haven’t faced a serious lineup in this postseason. The winning Showdown build seems to be one that fades the arms for the bats and chases home runs. Tucker has the most RBIs in the 2021 postseason (15) and the second-most home runs (4). Based on those numbers, the search for a possible home run hitter begins with Tucker. So far in the postseason, 14 of Tucker’s batted ball events have exit velocities of 94 mph or more. Against right-handed pitching in the regular season, Tucker had a .385 wOBA, .246 ISO, 149 wRC+ and 37% hard contact rate.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $400K Game 1 Extravaganza [$100K to 1st] (ATL vs HOU)


Value Plays

Eddie Rosario ($6,200) — The reigning NLCS MVP is one of the cheapest hitters on the slate. Even if Rosario hadn’t hit in every postseason game — he has (18 hits in 11 games) — batting lead off for the Braves on the road would warrant a significantly higher price tag. Not only is Rosario hitting, but he’s hitting the ball hard. Aside from his three home runs in the NLCS, Rosario has 18 batted ball events with exit velocities of 94 mph or harder in this postseason. On top of that, he has faced two of best pitching staffs in baseball — Milwaukee and Los Angeles.

Jose Siri ($4,000) — Throughout Travis d’Arnaud’s ($6,600) career, the Atlanta catcher has between a -2 rSB (stolen bases prevented above average) to -4 rSB. Suffice it to say, that he’s not good at throwing out runners. Charlie Morton has a -1 rSB this season, so if Jose Siri draws the start, a stolen base could lead to a run, and that’s all he would have to do to reach value. It’s possible that Dusty Baker starts Chas McCormick ($4,200), and that will work, too. McCormick had three hits in Game 1 of the ALCS. The stats are great, but more importantly, these cheap punts from the more potent offense allow the salary relief necessary to roster the big bats.


Fades

Charlie Morton ($16,200 CP; $10,800) — It’s difficult to roster elite pitching in the modern postseason. The managers have bullpens and seven games across nine days, so they will use every arm at their disposal. Morton is not elite; he’s allowed two earned runs in each of his three postseason starts and he’s averaging under five innings per start. He struck out nine Brewers in Game 1 of the NLDS, but that was against one of the worst offenses in baseball. Against the Dodger’s scuffling lineup, Morton struck out five in each game. That’s not bad for the limited amount of innings, but his innings will continue to be limited and he walked six in his last start. Strikeouts are going to be hard to come by against a patient Houston lineup that makes a lot of contact — and hard contact.


The Outcome

The Braves have enjoyed an easy path to the World Series, singing and skipping down the yellow brick road while holding hands. The Astros, with little support from their pitching staff due to tough matchups, have hacked their way through a dense jungle and survived a red hot Rex Sox offense on their way to the promise land. The machetes stay out and the skippers get a rude awakening in Houston.

Final Score: Astros 7, Braves 3

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $400K Game 1 Extravaganza [$100K to 1st] (ATL vs HOU)



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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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