I don’t have much of a take on this game, so I’m probably going to just sit MNF out and start looking towards next week with a focus on basketball during the week now that NBA is here. But I still have some leans in this one that I’ll share, as well as a couple props that jump out to me.
This feels like an under game, but with the total down from 44.5 to 41.5, it’s just too late to get any value. Jameis Winston has been all over the place this season, putting together a few massive games, along with a couple of duds. You almost have to guess what he’s going to be to bet the game. I’d guess this spot has some dud potential, and am tempted to take the points with the home team — the market is generally down on Geno Smith, who is 6-0 ATS in his last six starts (a trend that dates back to 2014). But it’s a tough spot to fade the Saints off a bye when we know Seattle won’t be at it’s best. Stay away for me.
We won’t see the best passing attacks in this game, but we also won’t see the best passing defenses. Seattle ranks 27th in the NFL, allowing 292.3 yards per game through the air. The Saints only have so many options when it comes to going deep — essentially just Callaway. I’m very interested in Callaway’s long reception prop, which isn’t yet offered. If posted, I may wind up with a play on it. But the 44.5 yards for the game feels very obtainable. After a slow start to the season, Callaway has hauled in 6-of-10 targets for 159 yards in his last two games. His long receptions in those contests are 58 and 49 yards.
Sure, we’d prefer Russell Wilson be playing to bet a prop like this, but the market is obviously adjusted to the QB situation. Again, Seattle’s passing offense isn’t expected to be anything special, but the Saints do rank 24th against the pass, and are allowing just shy of 300 yards per game over their past three. Metcalf meshed well with Smith in the game he came on in relief of Russ, and then last week in Pittsburgh, Geno found Metcalf on 6-of-7 targets for 58 yards. Those numbers came on the road against a slightly above average pass defense. I think the friendlier spot at home against a much worse pass defense in primetime should help DK’s outlook here.
Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.
If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).
Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN), or 888-789-7777/visit ccpg.org/chat. (CT).
21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/CT/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See draftkings.com/sportsbook for full terms and conditions.