Week 8! Isn’t it great? That we have another football slate to hopefully increase our estates! According to DraftKings Sportsbook, only one game on the main DraftKings NFL slate has an O/U of at least 50 points this week - TEN/IND (50). The SF/CHI game is at 39.5! I believe that’s the first game under 40 this season. There are two games with a spread of more than 10 points - LAR (-14) over HOU and BUF (-14) over MIA.
Eight games kick off at 1 p.m. ET while four games are in the afternoon window. Why? Anyways, let’s dive into the cheaper end of the player pool and find some bargain options for Week 8.
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QUARTERBACK
($6,000 and under)
Carson Wentz, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans, $5,700 – So far, this is the only game on the slate with a total of at least 50 points, according to DraftKings Sportsbook. It opened at 47.5 and has been bet up as both the Titans and Colts have seen boosts to their implied totals.
The Colts have the top-rated rush defense DVOA but the 49ers were able to carve them up on Monday Night. They are 22nd in pass defense DVOA. On the other side, the Titans are 18th in pass defense DVOA while being 25th in rush defense DVOA. Both offenses should be able to move the ball.
Over the past two weeks, the stats haven’t been impressive for Wentz as he threw the ball only 26 and 20 times. One game was a 31-3 blowout while the other was the rain-infested game in San Francisco. Prior to those games, he attempted at least 30 passes in every other game and threw for 402 yards against the Ravens. He’s thrown at least two touchdowns in five of seven games and does have some rushing prowess to his game. He has four, five, five, two, two and four rushing attempts on the season and scored last week.
Jameis Winston, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $6,000 – Can I get a YOLO? After not exceeding 23 pass attempts in the first four games, Winston has thrown 30 and 35 times in the last two. Is Sean Payton getting more comfortable with Winston? Perhaps. Winston also has some rushing ability as he has six, three, five, six and eight attempts on the season with a high of 40 yards and one touchdown.
The Saints face the Buccaneers this week, who happen to have the fourth-best rush defense DVOA, and some guy named Tom Brady who will likely put up plenty of points. As much as Payton wants to play conservative, he may have to YOLO in this game just to keep pace. The floor is low with Winston and he can throw four interceptions on any given Sunday. That said, he can also throw four touchdowns and the path of least resistance is through the air this week.
RUNNING BACK
($5,000 and under)
Michael Carter, New York Jets vs. Cincinnati Bengals, $4,900 – The matchup isn’t a good one as the Bengals have been one of the better defenses this season and are fifth in rush defense DVOA. That said, there aren’t many good options below $5,000. Over the last three weeks, Carter has rushed 13, 10 and 11 times for 37, 38 and 38 yards. Consistency! He has scored two touchdowns, though, and been involved both in the passing game and in the red zone. He’s coming off a game in which he hauled in eight of nine targets for 67 yards and has five red-zone rushes over the last three games. There aren’t many, if any, running backs below $5,000 who have the trifecta of rushes, targets and red-zone involvement.
WIDE RECEIVER
($5,000 and under)
Cole Beasley, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $4,900 – The targets and production have been all over the map this season for Beasley. He has two games with 13 targets and two games with two targets. He has a high of 98 yards with a low of five. He is coming off a game in which he hauled in seven of nine targets for 88 yards and a touchdown.
The floor is super low, especially since the Bills are favored by 14 points. He faced the Dolphins in Week 2 and caught four of four targets for 36 yards, but they are 26th in pass defense DVOA. There is upside, though, as he’s gone over 20 DKFP in two games this season.
Hey, if you want more stability, pay up!
Darnell Mooney, Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers, $4,800 – The quarterback play is an issue for Mooney. So is the 49ers' defense. This game environment is also one of the most grotesque I’ve seen in a while with the O/U at 39.5 and the Bears implied for 18 points. That said, the 49ers’ secondary can be exploited on deep shots, which is where Mooney excels. He’s garnered five, eight, five, seven, four and eight targets on the season. He’s scored one touchdown and has a 125-yard game on the resume.
Laviska Shenault, Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks, $4,700 — Shoutout to Dwain McFarland of PFF who tweeted that Shenault was outside on 82% of his routes in Week 6. Prior to that, he was often running from the slot, making him dependent on the Jaguars utilizing 11 personnel. He received 10 targets in Week 6, tied with Marvin Jones, and should continue to be a main cog in the passing attack. Over the last three games, he’s received three targets and one rush in the red zone.
Robby Anderson, Carolina Panthers at Atlanta Falcons, $4,700 – Yes, I’m going to fall for the banana in the tailpipe once again. Mr. Anderson has received 11, seven, 11 and nine targets over the last four weeks. That’s translated to five, two, three and three receptions for 46, 30, 11 and 14 yards. At least he scored a touchdown two weeks ago. Yipee. This week, he gets to play on the fast turf in Atlanta against a Falcons defense that is 30th in pass defense DVOA. They are also 28th in adjusted sack rate. It’s happening!
TIGHT END
($4,000 and under)
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos, $3,800 – Over the last three weeks, RSJ has played in 100%, 100% and 99% of the snaps. He’s been second on the team in targets in two of those three games, garnering eight, six and seven targets, which translated to five, four and six receptions for 41, 58 and 51 yards with a touchdown. Now he gets a matchup against a Broncos team that is 19th in DVOA against tight ends.
Dan Arnold, Jacksonville Jaguars at Seattle Seahawks, $2,800 – Arnold has played in 62% and 73% of the snaps the last two weeks, most on the Jaguars’ depth chart. He’s received five and eight targets, the most by a wide margin among the tight ends. That’s translated to six receptions for 64 yards and two receptions for 27 yards. He does have one red-zone target. It’s not exciting, but he’s sub-$3,000 and is getting a decent number of targets.
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
($2,800 and under)
Seattle Seahawks DST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $2,800 – The unit has 13 sacks on the season with at least one in every game. They have four fumble recoveries and two interceptions. They are 30th in adjusted sack rate while the Jags are 12th in pass blocking according to PFF, but it will be the first experience for Trevor Lawrence ($5,500) playing in front of the 12th man.
Atlanta Falcons DST vs. Carolina Panthers, $2,900 — The unit has 11 sacks, two fumbles and three interceptions on the season. They are only 28th in adjusted sack rate but Sam Darnold ($5,600) has really struggled as of late. He’s thrown seven interceptions and been sacked 15 times in the last four games.
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