Week 8 is a slate with much on the plate. There’s much to debate, which players to go overweight and which to throw out the gate? I wish I could predict those who will make us irate, but I am not great. I just live on the Earth waiting to play out my fate. The Ravens and Raiders are on bye. As a result, there are 12 games on the main slate. Perusing DraftKings Sportsbook, there are two games with a total of at least 50 points — TEN-IND (51) and TB-NO (50). We also have the lowest total of the season, as the SF-CHI game has a 39.5 over/under. Three teams are favored by at least 10 points — CIN -10.5 vs. the NYJ, BUF -13.5 vs. MIA and LAR -14 vs. HOU.
These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.
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Quarterback
Stud
Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $8,100 — In Week 2, Allen scored 17.66 DKFP because he wasn’t needed, as the Bills demolished the Dolphins 35-0. Things should be a little more competitive since Tua Tagovailoa ($5,500) will be the starting quarterback instead of Jacoby Brissett. DraftKings Sportsbook still has the Bills favored by 13.5 points, but Tagovailoa should be able to do enough to prevent the Bills from completely shutting it down.
Against Washington and Kansas City, the Bills won 43-21 and 38-20, respectively. Allen still went for 40.22 and 39.5 DKFP, respectively.
We know Allen can pass, as he has three games with a completion rate over 70% and three games over 300 yards. We know Allen can get busy on the ground, as he has at least five rushes in five of six games, with a high of 11. He’s accumulated 214 yards and two touchdowns on the ground.
The passing and rushing combination is deadly in and of itself, but it’s the number of red-zone opportunities that provide access to a ceiling that few can match. The Bills are right behind the Buccaneers with 4.8 red-zone scoring attempts per game. Allen has attempted 49 passes and 16 rushes in the red zone.
The Dolphins are 26th in pass defense DVOA, 24th in adjusted sack rate and the Bills are coming off a bye, so things are looking ripe for an offensive explosion.
Other Option – Jalen Hurts ($7,200), Matthew Stafford ($7,600)
Value
Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos, $5,300 — The total for this game is only 44, but there could be sneaky fantasy goodness. The Broncos are fifth in pace of play while Washington is eighth. Denver is also 11th in pass rate while Washington is 19th.
The Broncos used to have a good defense, but they are 24th in pass-defense DVOA and 21st in adjusted sack rate.
Heinicke has gone over 20 DKFP in four of seven games and is coming off a game in which he rushed 10 times for 95 yards. He’s attempted 26 passes and rushed eight times in the red zone.
Other Option – Jameis Winston ($6,000)
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Running Back
Stud
Alvin Kamara, New Orleans Saints vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $8,700 — As much as Sean Payton wants to play conservatively, he’s going to have to be aggressive in this one, as the Buccaneers are going to score points. The total is 50 points, with the Saints implied for 22 of them. Tampa Bay also has the fourth-best rush defense DVOA in the league.
The Bucs are 24th in DVOA against receptions to running backs, though, and that is where Kamara gets busy. He’s coming off a game in which he caught 10 of 11 targets for 128 yards and a touchdown. Prior to that, he caught five of eight targets for 51 yards and a touchdown. He has a total of four touchdowns in the passing game.
Other Option – Najee Harris ($7,500), D’Andre Swift ($7,100), Darrell Henderson ($6,500)
Value
Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears vs. San Francisco 49ers, $5,400 – The matchup is a difficult one, as the 49ers are 10th in rush defense DVOA. They are also third in DVOA against receptions to running backs. That said, sometimes volume trumps the matchup.
Over the last three games, Herbert has carried 18, 19 and 19 times for 75, 97 and 100 yards, respectively. He’s scored one touchdown. The 100-yard game was vs. the Buccaneers, who are fourth in rush-defense DVOA.
Herbert has also been involved in the passing game, as he’s received three and five targets over the past two games. He has three, two and two red-zone rushes over the last three games.
Other Options – Alex Collins ($5,300), Eli Mitchell ($5,400)
Wide Receiver
Stud
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $8,100 — It’s only a matter of time before Diggs has a monster two-touchdown game. It could come this week. The Bills are coming off the bye, Miami is susceptible to the pass and Diggs caught nine of 11 targets for 89 yards and a touchdown in the last game. He also had four red-zone targets that game.
Another reason why I like Diggs this week is I think there’s a chance he goes overlooked. Most will go up to Cooper Kupp ($9,000) or down to Ja’Marr Chase ($7,500).
Other Options – Cooper Kupp ($9,000), Ja’Marr Chase ($7,500)
Value
Michael Pittman, Indianapolis Colts vs. Tennessee Titans, $5,300 – It’s been an inconsistent season for Pittman. He’s gone over 100 yards twice but has two games with less than 40 yards. He’s garnered 12 targets in two games but has three games with four or fewer. That said, he is the “alpha” for the Colts. Granted, that’s not saying much because he only has 50 targets on the season, with the next-most at 35.
This game has a total of 51 points with the spread at only 1.5. There should be scoring, and Pittman should be involved, especially since the Titans are 18th in pass-defense DVOA.
Other Options – Laviska Shenault ($4,700), Robby Anderson ($4,700)
Tight End
Stud
Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons vs. Carolina Panthers, $6,300 – The matchup isn’t great, as the Panthers are seventh in DVOA against tight ends, ninth in pass-defense DVOA and third in adjusted sack rate. The Falcons are 24th in pass blocking, according to PFF.
As with Herbert in the running back section, sometimes volume and opportunities trump the matchup. Pitts has received nine, 10 and eight targets over the last three games and has gone over 100 yards in the last two. He has one touchdown on the season.
Other Options – T.J. Hockenson ($5,400)
Value
Ricky Seals-Jones, Washington Football Team at Denver Broncos, $3,800 – RSJ was priced at $2,500 three games ago, so he’s seen a $1,300 increase. He’s still too cheap. He’s playing on all the snaps and has received eight, six and seven targets over the last three games. He’s scored a touchdown and accumulated 41, 58 and 51 yards, respectively, while getting a total of eight red-zone looks.
Other Options – Dan Arnold ($2,800)
Defense/Special Teams
Stud
Bengals DST vs. New York Jets, $3,600 – Mike White ($5,000) has been announced as the starter for the Jets. He was selected by the Cowboys in the fifth round of the 2018 NFL Draft and has played in one game in his career, which was last week. He did play well, going 20 of 32 for 202 yards and a touchdown, but things will be more difficult against a Bengals defense that has had a week to prepare.
The Bengals are eighth in pass-defense DVOA and 14th in adjusted sack rate. They’ve held three opponents to fewer than 20 points and no team has scored over 25. They have 21 sacks, one fumble recovery and six interceptions on the season.
Other Option – Rams DST ($5,100)
Value
Seahawks DST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $2,800 – The Seahawks have 13 sacks, four fumble recoveries and two interceptions on the season. They are a far cry from the Legion of Boom, as they are 25th in pass-defense DVOA and only 30th in adjusted sack rate. That said, it will be Trevor Lawrence’s ($5,500) first foray playing in front of the 12th man. Lawrence has thrown eight interceptions and been sacked 10 times on the season.
Other Option – Washington Football Team DST ($2,100)
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