NFL Week 8 gets underway on Thursday with the Packers and Cardinals squaring off in what we hope will be a fantastic TNF game. Let’s dig into some odds on DraftKings Sportsbook!
These TNF and MNF articles will always list out some of my favorite plays to consider. For my full card, including any bets I lock in from primetime games, make sure to check out my NFL Best Bets article. For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow.
This is an alternate spread we’re playing here, but it might wind up the actual spread by the time this one kicks off. If not, we’ve been GB +6.5 touch -105, which opens up roughly a -120 price on the +7, which is where I locked it in.
There are a lot of ways to look at this game. Is it smart to fade a 7-0 home team on a short week facing a team without its top two WR? Maybe not. Arizona was overvalued in this game to begin with at -3 given how good its been this season. Now with Davante Adams out the number is going to move 3.5 points? Seems a bit much.
Outside of a Week 1 dud following a distracting offseason, the Packers have locked back in. They’ve won and covered six in a row entering this game. Meanwhile, the Cards are due for a letdown at some points. I’m not saying Green Bay wins, but a touchdown is a lot to lay in this spot.
Meanwhile, you’ve got a Packers team that won both games without Adams last season, which has been a trend. Aaron Rodgers is 9-2 straight up and 8-3 ATS in games without Adams. Overreaction. Let’s play the value.
Jones has six total touchdowns on the season, and almost certainly has to be relied upon more heavily in this game. Attacking Arizona on the ground would make a lot of sense, opening up a larger role there for Jones. While the Cardinals don’t allow many rushing yards, the numbers are skewed with teams playing from behind. But I also feel we’re covered here if Arizona does wind up playing with a lead. Jones is a good pass-catcher, and will need to be involved in that aspect of the game given the missing receivers. Look for Jones to catch out of the backfield and potentially play on the outside some. One way or another, I think he finds pay dirt.
With both receivers out, there’s a lot of value in Green Bay props we should focus on. Full discloser, I played some Randall Cobb at 46.5 receiving yards and +115 on over 4.5 receptions earlier, but that ship has sailed. So let’s focus on the tight ends.
No Adams leaves Tonyan as the big body target here. He’s had five duds this season, but also two games of at least 50 yards. And when he get’s involved like that, he scores — finding the end zone in both of those games. Tough to imagine he won’t be involved on that type of level in this game, so I like both his yardage and touchdown props.
Then there’s Lewis. I’d imagine the Packers go to some two-TE sets with a very thin WR core, meaning more snaps for Lewis. Mercedes was already getting involved more the last few weeks, catching all seven of his targets for 82 yards in his last three games combined. With more targets opening up, we’re looking at a very low bar to clear here.
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