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NFL Cheat Sheet: DraftKings Fantasy Football DFS Picks, Predictions, Betting Odds for Week 8

Steve Buchanan breaks down the Week 8 DraftKings NFL slate with game analysis, odds, lines and prop bets.

Life is funny. I was openly complaining about the betting board last week for Week 7. Then Monday comes around this week and the board this week (in my opinion) is even worse! I would LOVE to get the Week 7 board back. So I suppose, be careful what you wish for. Nonetheless, let’s take a look at Week 8 and how to attack it from a daily fantasy and a betting perspective.

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Game Notes

Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite

Los Angeles Rams (-14; -1000) vs. Houston Texans (+650)

Betting trends:
Rams 2021 road record: 3-0
Rams 2021 road record when favored: 3-0
Rams 2021 ATS record: 4-3
Rams 2021 ATS record when favored: 3-3

Texans 2021 home record: 1-2
Texans 2021 home record as underdogs: 1-2
Texans 2021 ATS record: 3-4
Texans 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 3-4

Last week when we had all of the big favorites on the board, the Rams were one of the teams that did not cover the double-digit spread in their game against the Lions. To be fair, the Lions played an incredible game and pulled out all the stops to try and get the win. It wasn’t enough, naturally but it certainly changed my perspective of them moving forward.

As for this week, the Texans are a team that consistently look like they’re dead in the water. Through seven games this season, they’ve now scored nine points or less in FOUR OF THEM. FOUR. ONE, TWO, THREE, FOUR. That’s not very good, guys and gals. This is also the fifth time this season the Texans are double-digit underdogs, a scenario they’ve gone 1-3 in ATS. The Rams are one of the better teams against the spread in the league, going 4-3 while covering by an average of 2.6 points .This is the second straight week where they’re double-digit favorites.

Last week, a stack that was in the money included Matt Stafford ($7,600), Darrell Henderson ($6,500) and Cooper Kupp ($9,000). This three-man stack combined for 80.16 DKFP, even with a dud of a game from Henderson. The Rams playing from behind immediately turned it into a pass-heavy game script for the Rams but Henderson still had 15 carries and six targets. I like the idea of this type of stack again, to play with the idea of the Rams throwing early and then rounding out the clock with Henderson. That said, this is also much more expensive this time around, as these three would consume almost 50% of your salary cap. With numerous double-digit favorites on the board, this is a type of stack I would highly consider this week.

Other notable favorites: Miami Dolphins (+600) at Buffalo Bills (-14; -900)

Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total

Tennessee Titans (+3; -+135) at Indianapolis Colts (-3; -155) Over/Under: 51

Betting trends:
Titans 2021 road record: 2-1
Titans 2021 road record as underdogs: 1-0
Titans 2021 Over/Under record: 4-3
Titans 2021 Over/Under record as underdogs: 2-1

Colts 2021 home record: 1-2
Colts 2021 home record as favorites: 1-0
Colts 2021 Over/Under record: 4-3
Colts 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 0-1

The Titans were involved in one of the biggest totals we’ve seen all season long against the Chiefs last week. I certainly don’t need to tell you that the game went under but rather it went WAY under. Closing with an over/under of 59, these teams combined for 30 total points, with the Titans scoring 27 of them. The Titans have been one of the better teams hitting the over with a 4-3 record and had hit the mark in three-straight before the Chiefs forgot how to play football. Indy is also 4-3 with the over, hitting it in three of the last four games.

I’m struggling with figuring out this Colts team. Are they good? Are they simply doing enough to get by? Do I really trust Carson Wentz ($5,700)? Aside from his 402 passing yards against the Ravens, he’s been quite underwhelming. Granted, he’s been playing with two bum ankles so we can’t totally fault him but his performances under center have been quite lackluster. This is one of the best matchups he’s had on paper but he’s also averaging just 242 passing yards and a 64.4% completion percentage. His offensive line has been a disaster, allowing him under pressure on 40% of his dropbacks, leading him to just a 54.7% completion percentage and 6.9 YPA in those scenarios. The Titans haven’t been great at getting pressure on the quarterback so this could be a week where we see Wentz at his best. Again, I simply struggle with this team.

I would lean on the over in this game at 51 points. We’ve seen a lot of movement on the spread in this game, with the Colts opening as -1.5 favorites and are now at -3 as of Friday morning. The total has also seen its share of movement, being as low as 47.5 at one point but steadily moving up since. At 51, I still think we can see the over but would lean more to the under if it continued to climb. Both teams have struggled to defend the pass and the Titans are still seeing Ryan Tannehill ($6,600) make an average of 32 pass attempts per game. At this total of 51, I think we have a very realistic chance of this game going over.

Other notable total: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-4.5; -220) at New Orleans Saints (+180) O/U 50.5

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NFL Week 8 Betting Splits

These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.

Last Updated: Sunday, October 31st, 9:00 a.m.

NFL Betting Trends

This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.

Teams Against the Spread:

Best Teams ATS

Team Record ATS +/-
Team Record ATS +/-
Dallas Cowboys 12-4 5.1
Green Bay Packers 12-4 1.3
New England Patriots 10-6 7.5
Tennessee Titans 10-6 3.6
Arizona Cardinals 10-6 2.4

Worst Teams ATS

Team Record ATS +/-
Team Record ATS +/-
Jacksonville Jaguars 4-12 -7.6
Carolina Panthers 5-11 -2.8
Chicago Bears 6-10 -0.6
New York Jets 6-10 -4.3
New York Giants 6-10 -2.5

Teams Over/Under Records:

Best Team Over Records

Team Over Record Total +/-
Team Over Record Total +/-
New York Jets 10-6 4.4
Minnesota Vikings 10-6 1.4
Los Angeles Rams 8-7-1 -0.8
Buffalo Bills 8-8 -1.8
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 8-8 0.4

Worst Team Over Records

Team Over Record Total +/-
Team Over Record Total +/-
Jacksonville Jaguars 5-11 -3.8
Seattle Seahawks 5-10-1 -3.3
New York Giants 5-10-1 -4.5
Atlanta Falcons 6-10 -2.1
New Orleans Saints 6-10 -2.8

Target Report

Target Report

Player Team Week 13 Opponent Avg. TPG Avg YPT
Player Team Week 13 Opponent Avg. TPG Avg YPT
Cooper Kupp LAR MIN 11.7 9.9
Diontae Johnson PIT KC 10.4 7.6
Tyreek Hill KC PIT 10.3 8.2
Keenan Allen LAC HOU 10.3 7.5
Justin Jefferson MIN LAR 9.8 9.7
DJ Moore CAR TB 9.5 7.4
Marquise Brown BAL CIN 9.3 7.5
Stefon Diggs BUF NE 9.1 7.9
Travis Kelce KC PIT 8.7 8.7
Mark Andrews BAL CIN 8.7 8.7

Lineup Starters

Quarterback to build around

Josh Allen, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $8,100 — For most weeks, I try to give a QB/WR pairing that isn’t considered the chalk play of the week. That said, it would almost be disingenuous if I didn’t write up Allen. The Bills are massive -14 favorites against the Dolphins and have a 3.5 total touchdown over/under on DraftKings Sportsbook. As of Friday afternoon, the over is juiced up to -155. The Bills are also projected at 31.5 total points, which is the highest on the slate. The Rams are second at 30.5. The Dolphins are giving up a ton of production to opposing QB’s, allowing an average of 311 passing yards, 22.9 DKFP and 15 total passing touchdowns. The pass rush is ranked near the league average but even in that scenario, Allen has thrown for six of his 15 total touchdowns with 7.7 YPA. Allen has also given us five games of 26 or more rushing yards, which brings further upside to his already massive ceiling.

Player props for Josh Allen on DraftKings Sportsbook:

Passing Yards: 283.5 (over -115 under -115)
Passing TDs: 2.5 (over +120 under -160)
Passing + Rushing Yards 316.5 (over -115 under -115)
Anytime Touchdown Scorer: +100

Wide Receiver To Pair Him With

Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills vs. Miami Dolphins, $8,100 — Diggs hasn’t been getting in the end zone as much as we’d expect but he’s still posting solid fantasy numbers. Through six games, Diggs is averaging 77.2 receiving yards, 9.6 targets, and 16.4 DKFP per game. He’s accounted for 35% of the Bills’ total air yards, giving him an aDOT of 12.4 yards. Diggs also has one of the best matchups in coverage against CB Byron Jones when he lines up on the left side, something he’s done on 39% of his snaps. When he’s on that side of the field, he’ll be up against Jones, who has been targeted against 35 times, allowing 24 receptions for an average of 11.7 YPR and two total touchdowns. Jones has really struggled over the past two weeks in particular, allowing 13 of his 15 targets against be caught for 145 total yards. IT’s not going to get much easier this week against Diggs.

Player props for Stefon Diggs on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Receiving Yards: 86.5 (over -115 under -115)
Longest Receptions: 25.5 (over -120 under -110)
TD Scorer: First +650 Last +650 Anytime -110

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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