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There is a free $5K Sportsbook Pool for NFL Week 8. You have to pick each of the games on Sunday against the spread, and the higher you finish on the leaderboard, the more money you earn.
Let’s take a look at all the contests slated for Sunday, including my five personal favorites.
Miami Dolphins @ Buffalo Bills (-11.5)
The Pick: Bills -11.5
Everything appears to be in the Bills’ favor in this matchup. Let’s start with the obvious: They’re a much better team. The Bills currently rank first in Football Outsiders DVOA, while the Dolphins rank just 28th. That’s a wide gap.
The Bills should also benefit from this game being played at home, and they also have the rest advantage. The Bills were on a bye last week, while the Dolphins won’t hit their bye until Week 14. They played in London just two weeks ago, so they’ve done plenty of traveling of late.
Finally, Tua Tagovailoa can’t be in the best frame of mind at the moment. The Dolphins have been linked to Deshaun Watson, so it feels like Tagovailoa’s days as the Dolphins’ quarterback are numbered.
Cincinnati Bengals (-3.5) @ New York Jets
The Pick: Bengals -3.5
What’s better than picking against the Jets? Picking against the Jets when they’re playing a backup quarterback! Mike White will make his first career start, and he was not good in relief of Zach Wilson last week. He finished with two interceptions while averaging 4.13 adjusted yards per attempt, so he’s a clear downgrade from Wilson. The Jets’ offense was already the worst in the league, so that’s a scary thought.
This line is up to Bengals -11.5 on DraftKings Sportsbook, so they’re presenting a ton of value in this pool. Don’t overthink it.
Tennessee Titans @ Indianapolis Colts (-1.5)
The Pick: Colts -1.5
The Colts are up to -3.0 on DraftKings Sportsbook, so we’re getting a touch of spread value here as well. That said, that’s not the reason I’m picking the Colts. Rather, it’s because the Colts are the better team in this matchup. Their record might not be as impressive as the Titans’ record, but they grade out as the superior team in terms of DVOA. The Colts have struggled through a bear of a schedule, but they’ve played some tough teams really close. They lost by just three points to the Rams and ultimately blew a 16-point fourth-quarter lead vs. the Ravens.
They also match up really well with the Titans. The Colts rank first in the league in rush defense DVOA, so they’re well-equipped to slow down Derrick Henry. If they can do that, Ryan Tannehill has not shown the ability to beat teams with his arm. Ultimately, the Colts should be able to win this contest, setting up a potentially exciting stretch run for the division crown.
New England Patriots @ Los Angeles Chargers (-5.5)
The Pick: Patriots +5.5
The Patriots appear to be one of the sharps’ preferred targets this week. They opened as 5.5-point underdogs – which is what they’re listed at in this contest – but they’re down to just +4.0 on DraftKings Sportsbook.
The Patriots are coming off a demolition of the Jets last week, and they have another potentially exploitable matchup vs. the Chargers. They’ve been the worst rushing defense in football per DVOA, and that’s the Patriots' preferred method of moving the football.
Dallas Cowboys (-2.5) @ Minnesota Vikings
The Pick: Vikings +2.5
This is another one that is just too easy to pass up. The Cowboys haven’t officially ruled Dak Prescott out yet, but it seems likely that Cooper Rush will draw the start this week. The Cowboys are all but assured to win the division, so giving Prescott an extra week to heal up is the smart decision.
With that in mind, it’s no surprise that the Vikings have moved to three-point favorites on DraftKings Sportsbook. Once the decision to rest Prescott is made official, expect the line to move even further in the Vikings’ direction. Locking them in as small underdogs in this pool is the logical decision.
Remaining Games
Here’s who I’m targeting for the rest of the Sunday games. Remember, we’re looking to beat the competition and climb up the leaderboard, so I’ll be looking to gain leverage on the field and fade the public in situations where I don’t see a huge edge on the spread.
Los Angeles Rams (-14.5) @ Houston Texans
Pick: Texans +14.5
Pittsburgh Steelers @ Cleveland Browns (-2.5)
Pick: Steelers +2.5
Philadelphia Eagles (-3.5) @ Detroit Lions
Pick: Lions +3.5
Carolina Panthers @ Atlanta Falcons (-1.5)
Pick: Falcons -1.5
San Francisco 49ers (-3.5) @ Chicago Bears
Pick: 49ers -3.5
Jacksonville Jaguars @ Seattle Seahawks (-3.5)
Pick: Jaguars +3.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-3.5) @ New Orleans Saints
Pick: Buccaneers -3.5
Washington Football Team @ Denver Broncos (-3.5)
Pick: Broncos -3.5
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