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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Astros vs. Braves Showdown on October 30

Pearce Dietrich gives his top lineup advice for Saturday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Astros and Braves, which starts at 8:09 p.m. ET.

MLB: Los Angeles Dodgers at Atlanta Braves Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

This series looks like it’s going the full seven. The Braves won Game 3, but the Astros were their equal in every category but one: clutch hits. Atlanta’s lineup has not been as high-powered as the Houston offense, but the Braves have been clutch all throughout the postseason.



Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves

Captain’s Picks

Jorge Soler ($11,100 CP) — As Kenny Ducey pointed out in Friday’s showdown article, the Astros’ bullpen is being overworked. They entered Friday night’s game having tossed over 60 innings this postseason, and the bullpen proceeded to enter last night’s game in the fourth inning. It’s probably too late for these poor workers to unionize and demand better working conditions, so Dusty Baker will once again get away with overusing his relievers. However, just because he is allowed to order them to pitch, doesn’t mean that the workers will produce a quality product. Soler will face Zack Greinke and a bullpen on its last leg. So far in this series, Soler has walked twice and struck out five times, but when he puts the bat on the ball, good things happen. Three of his six batted ball events (BBE) have been hard hits — exit velocities of 104.6, 102.1 and 95.1 mph. Soler missed most of the NLCS due to COVID, but against the Brewers, all seven of his BBEs were hard hits — 99.1, 103.6, 97.9, 111.4, 98.6, 93.6 and 100.5 mph EV.

Adam Duvall ($10,500 CP) — This feels like a foolish play, but if Showdown slates require home runs, then Duval is still the place to start the search. His price tag is appealing, but that has nothing to do with his probability of hitting a home run. In this series, Duvall has five hard hit BBEs, and a BBE with a 92 mph exit velocity. Since being traded to the Braves, Duvall hit seven home runs in 25 games in Atlanta’s hitter-friendly ballpark. Against right-handed pitching this season, he had a .345 wOBA, .292 ISO and 117 wRC+.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Game 4 Extravaganza [$50K to 1st] (HOU vs ATL)


Value Plays

Eddie Rosario ($5,800) — What is happening? His salary keeps dropping despite his league-leading 21 postseason hits. It’s true that he went hitless in Game 2 and did not record a hard hit on Friday night, but he did earn a regular hit, giving him 12 in 13 postseason games. In 50 at-bats this postseason, Rosario has a .420/.473/.680 slash line. This price would be egregious against good pitching, but it looks even worse when tonight’s matchup is considered.

Michael Brantley ($6,200) — The value options are not changing until DraftKings fixes the prices. The defense for this pricing error is that Brantley will face a lefty starter/potential long reliever. That was the case in Game 2, and Brantley went 2-for-4 with a double and RBI. Besides, how many times will Brantley even face Drew Smyly ($10,500 CP; $7,000), and are those matchups even disadvantageous? Brantley’s 19 postseason hits are the third-most in the playoffs. Furthermore, he bats near the top of the lineup for the away team, so he’ll likely get more plate appearances than most players on the slate.


Fades

Zack Greinke ($9,300 CP; $6,200) — It’s been hard to roster pitchers in this postseason. Managers have been quick to go to their bullpens and managers have been slow to announce their starting pitchers. DFS players know that Greinke is starting, but they wish they did not. Greinke is a likable pitcher that most want to root for and some will consider rostering him, but the stats do no support this choice. There is a reason why he is cheap. There is a reason why he has only made one high-leverage postseason appearance this year. The 38-year-old wasn’t bad for a pitcher nearing his 40s, but a 4.21 xFIP this season is not good by regular standards. In his last start, he allowed three walks and a home run to Boston in 1 13 innings.


The Outcome

The city of Atlanta is one game closer to celebrating a World Series. It’s been a quarter of a century since this city has won a championship. Not only is the win in sight, but if the Braves win the next two, the champs will be crowned in The Big Peach. No one knows what Game 5 will look like, but the Braves will beat Zack Greinke and the Astros in Game 4.

Final Score: Braves 6, Astros 4

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $150K Game 4 Extravaganza [$50K to 1st] (HOU vs ATL)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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