Saturday features Game 4 of the World Series between the Houston Astros and the Atlanta Braves. Can the Braves take a commanding 3-1 series lead, or will the Astros battle back to tie the series? Let’s break down some of my favorite wagers to target in this contest on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
Houston Astros @ Atlanta Braves:
Under 8.5 runs (-105)
The starting pitching matchup in this game will likely put plenty of people on the over. The Astros are starting Zack Greinke, who is not the same player that he was in his prime. He pitched to a 4.16 ERA during the regular season and has allowed two runs over 2 1/3 innings during the postseason. Atlanta’s starter hasn’t even been announced yet, so neither team figures to get much from their starter in this contest.
That said, that doesn’t necessarily matter in 2021. The starting pitcher has essentially just become the first of many arms that will appear in any given game. These two bullpens have been outstanding during the playoffs – the Astros own a 2.89 ERA, the Braves have a 3.18 ERA – so expect whoever follows the starters to be an upgrade.
Ultimately, this total feels high for a World Series game. The under has gone 14-11-1 in games with a total of at least 8.5 runs since 2006, so I’ll take my chances with the bullpens.
Astros to win the series (+145)
The Astros are down 2-1 in the series, but I still think they should be able to win it all. The Braves suffered a big blow in Game 1 with the loss of Charlie Morton, who was basically the only true ace left in this postseason. That means this series will shift to bullpens and offenses, and the Astros are the better team in both regards.
The Astros’ offense is arguably the best in the league. They have some weakness toward the bottom of the lineup, but their top seven are incredibly dangerous. Guys like Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa and Alex Bregman are established stars in this league, and Yuli Gurriel, Kyle Tucker and Yordan Alvarez have emerged over the past few years. Atlanta’s offense is no joke, but the Astros’ lineup is a different kind of beast.
If they can win Game 4 – they’re currently listed as -110 favorites – they’re going to become the betting favorites once again. With that in mind, I’ll grab them at +145 before Game 4.
Alex Bregman to win MVP (+4500)
If you think the Astros are going to win the World Series, the MVP is still very much up in the air. Michael Brantley has gotten off to a solid start, while Jose Altuve has hit their only homer. However, the door is open for someone to enter the conversation over the final four games.
I can’t resist taking a shot on Bregman at +4500. He’s an excellent offensive player, so there’s no reason he can’t get hot. Guys like Yordan Alvarez (+2000) and Carlos Correa (+3000) are other potential options for the Astros, but Bregman gives us the best odds.
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