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Fantasy Baseball Picks: Top DraftKings MLB DFS Lineup Strategy for Astros vs. Braves Showdown on October 31

Pearce Dietrich gives his top lineup advice for Sunday’s fantasy baseball Showdown contest on DraftKings between the Astros and Braves, which starts at 8:09 p.m. ET.

MLB: World Series-Houston Astros at Atlanta Braves Brett Davis-USA TODAY Sports

The Braves are one game away from Atlanta’s first championship in a quarter of a century. The Falcons choked in the Super Bowl several years ago, and while the Hawks were a surprise in 2021, a championship never felt close for the city. In the other dugout, Dusty Baker is desperate to end his own quarter century drought. Since 1993, Baker has frequently qualified for the postseason with the Giants, Cubs, Reds, Nationals and Astros, but he’s never won a World Series as a manager.



Houston Astros vs. Atlanta Braves

Captain’s Picks

Jorge Soler ($13,200 CP) — Last night did not start out well when Atlanta chose not to start Jorge Soler. Anyone that had looked at the data, knew Brian Snitker was making a terrible move, but this is the same manager that pulled Ian Anderson during a no-hitter. When Soler entered as a pinch hitter in the seventh inning, it was a forgone conclusion that Soler would homer and he did. Minutes later, the account that criticized the @DKLive Twitter handle for the promotion of the Showdown article recommending Soler, deleted their tweet. The ball sailed over the wall, and the critical tweet was gone before Soler rounded third.

Soler has been crushing the ball all postseason long. Four of his seven batted ball events (BBE) in the World Series have been hard hits — exit velocities of 107.0, 104.6, 102.1 and 95.1 mph. Soler missed most of the NLCS due to COVID, but against the Brewers, all seven of his BBEs were hard hits — 99.1, 103.6, 97.9, 111.4, 98.6, 93.6 and 100.5 mph EV. Imagine reading those numbers then mocking @DKLive because Soler was the recommended Showdown pick 12 hours before the lineups were announced, but everything worked because it always works out.

Jose Altuve ($15,300 CP) — If the Astros come up short, it won’t be Altuve’s fault. Sans under-jersey radio wires and banging trash cans, Altuve is having an MVP type series. In Game 2, Altuve went 2-for-5 with a home run and two runs and he replicated those exact numbers in Game 4 with two hard hits (100.8 and 105.2 mph EV). His eight strikeouts in the World Series are uncharacteristic, but his clutch home runs are not. Altuve is no stranger to postseason success, in 313 postseason at-bats, he has an .826 OPS.


Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $75K Game 5 Extravaganza [$25K to 1st] (HOU vs ATL)


Value Plays

Eddie Rosario ($6,600) — Once again, the DraftKings pricing algorithm is broken. Rosario added two more hits to his league-leading postseason total (23) and both were hard hits — a double with an exit velocity of 102.8 mph and a single with a 104.8 mph EV. In 54 postseason at-bats, he has a 1.160 OPS. Don’t overthink it, take the free square.

Michael Brantley ($6,400) — The value plays have not changed all series, but it’s not lazy writing or a lack of research. DraftKings is not adjusting the salaries. Brantley could be having a terrible series and this price would still be wrong. He plays for the visiting team and he’s batting near the top of the order. This spot guarantees the maximum amount of plate appearances along with protection in the order and a higher probability of scoring. What makes this price laughable is that Brantley is hitting — his 20 hits ranks second behind Rosario. In Game 4, Brantley registered a hard hit single (102.5 mph EV).


Fades

Tucker Davidson ($15,000 CP; $10,000) — This is not an indictment of Tucker Davidson, but rather Braves manager Brian Snitker. His team is up 3-1 in the series, so he doesn’t have to answer to anyone, but his managerial decisions have been highly questionable. It’s hours before the first pitch and no one knows who is starting for the Braves, but we all know they won’t be pitching long. In Game 4, Snitker started a pitcher with just a handful of innings to his name and proceeded to yank the kid before the end of the first inning. His replacement allowed six hard hit BBEs and walked three over 4 23 innings. The Braves were very fortunate to walk away with a win in Game 4. This pitching staff cannot be trusted with Snitker seemingly using a magic eight ball to make his pitching decisions. However, it is Halloween, so it’s completely acceptable to build DFS lineups with the aid of a Ouija board, since that’s how the Braves are making decisions.


The Outcome

The Braves got lucky last night, but they’ve been getting lucky throughout the entire postseason. Some might call getting lucky being clutch. Picking the Braves to win would feel more comfortable if they would consistently hit and not wait for late game heroics. Nonetheless, the Braves celebrating a World Series win in Atlanta, Georgia would be a fitting end to the season.

Final Score: Braves 3, Astros 2

Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $75K Game 5 Extravaganza [$25K to 1st] (HOU vs ATL)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Greenflagradio2) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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