Locking in one early play for Week 5. Let’s dive into some plays on DraftKings Sportsbook!
While I will have other sports betting related content throughout the week, including best bets articles for both MNF and TNF each week (along with CFB best bets), this article will be where all my best bet wagers, along with unit size live on a weekly basis.
For updates, always follow along on Twitter — @julianedlow. I’ll usually come back with some additional plays as the week goes on in this article, including some player props over the weekend.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
BUF +3 (-120) 1.5 unit play (10/4)
BUF Moneyline (+135) 0.5 units play (10/4)
This was the first play I locked in this week, with the Bills in a really great spot on SNF. We know about the Chiefs’ struggles, particularly ATS going back to the middle of 2020. Kansas City was the better team last year, and won the AFC Championship in this matchup at home. While I trust Patrick Mahomes and the offense, the Chiefs have been dreadful in all aspects on defense. That’s not a good thing against this Buffalo offense.
The Bills have been rolling so far this season after a strange Week 1 upset by the Steelers. Frankly, I think this will be the game that sways the public perception to Buffalo being favored in the AFC. Josh Allen and this offense should absolutely carve the KC defense, even in a tough road atmosphere. The Bills have been lights out defensively, and while Mahomes will always be trouble, I trust Buffalo more to get the meaningful stops in this one.
Detroit Lions at Minnesota Vikings
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
MIN -1/BAL -1 6-point teaser (-120) 2 unit play (10/5)
I teased this one early in the week, so the number is starting to get away from us. If you locked it in with getting Minnesota down to anything -2.5 or better, I like the play, but we need to be through the key number of 3. The Vikings need a win to keep playoff hopes alive, and hosting the Lions is a good way to get one.
Meanwhile, the one-win Colts are in a tough spot in Baltimore on Monday night. The Ravens are kicking off a long home stand, and should be in position to rip off some wins. If you missed the boat on the Vikings, I don’t mind a primetime teaser that gets the Bills to at least +8.5 and pairing them with Baltimore, which as of Friday can be brought down to -0.5.
Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars
TEN/Georgia/Alabama Moneyline Parlay (-116) 1.5 unit play (10/8)
I’m getting cute with this one. Hopefully not too cute.
If you read my college football best bets article this week, you’ll see I’m very high on the two best teams in the country. I see them as free squares on the moneyline. So to avoid this fishy 4.5-point spread, I’ll use those pieces to get a good price on Titans moneyline.
Does Tennessee have issues? Absolutely. But this is still a team that was nearly -500 to win the AFC South entering Week 4. It cannot afford back-to-back losses to the Jets and Jags. Derrick Henry typically steamrolls the Jacksonville defense, and I expect a typical performance here. Meanwhile, we know the issues and distractions the Jags have been dealing with all week. It seems like more joking around about the coach than preparing for the Titans.
Philadelphia Eagles at Carolina Panthers
CAR -3 (-115) 1 unit play (10/8)
You’ll see my analysis below about the Panthers in the futures market, and I like them to build on their playoff chances this week. Carolina won’t have all the defensive pieces that makes me like them so much long-term this season, but I don’t think it’ll be an issues at home this week.
This defense is still good enough to hold the Eagles in check on the road, but the big advantage should come on the other side of the ball. Sam Darnold has this offense clicking, and the Eagles are one of the worst defenses in the NFL right now. I think we’re getting a short number on a good team at home against a bad team. Simple.
Futures Play: Carolina Panthers To Make Playoffs YES (+175) 2 units (10/6)
The Panthers continue to be aggressive building up their defense. After already adding a top-10 pick in the secondary from Jacksonville, Carolina went right ahead and added Stephon Gilmore from New England. This defense is legit up front, and now solidified its secondary — especially if Jaycee Horn returns late in the year and can return to form. Sam Darnold has a good thing going with the offense, and has been able to put up points so far.
This team sits are 3-1 and is favored at home on Sunday to have a good shot at advancing to 4-1. The NFC North and NFC East are likely looking like divisions that only get one team into the postseason. I doubt all four NFC West teams get in, so even if three teams make it from the division, there’s still one more Wild Card spot left. Operating under the assumption the Bucs win the NFC South, I still think there’s room for the Panthers in the playoffs. We’re getting a great price here.
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