Fantasy Football Recap: DraftKings NFL DFS Millionaire Results for Week 4 and Preview for Week 5

Starting with Week 2, we began analyzing DraftKings NFL GPPs with an emphasis on tournament strategies and slate dynamics. This article will be its weekly counterpart, recapping the decisions of the masses and discerning the takeaways that can be applied to future contests. Much like in the weekly previews, we’ll be focusing on topics like game theory and lineup building strategies, with the hope of giving everyone the tools to become better DraftKings NFL DFS players. In addition to the recap, this article will also function as a “first look” at the next NFL main slate, giving some initial thoughts on the teams and prices.

The DraftKings Championship Series is the king of competitions, minting 100 millionaires in the 2021-22 season. For more info on the series and all of the events, visit our DraftKings Championship Series Information page.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]

A Very High Scoring Week

A handful of players registered some massive scores in Week 4 and it wound up making for the highest scoring DFS week of the NFL season thus far. The week’s most drafted overall player was Derrick Henry, who had a predictably great game with 28.7 fantasy points, but he was actually outscored by six other skill-position players. Tyreek Hill led the way with 50.6 DKFP, though he actually didn’t find his way into the winning $20 millionaire lineup (more on that below).

It wasn’t necessary to hit on every big game in Week 4, because there were so many of them that they couldn’t all have made it into one lineup anyway. Deebo Samuel, DJ Moore, Terry McLaurin, and even Cordarrelle Patterson all managed to top 30 points for much cheaper prices than Hill’s $8,000. Moore was an especially popular pick at 17.6%, and solid games out of other popular players like David Montgomery and Clyde Edwards-Helaire turned this into a week where a massive score was required to contend for a GPP victory.

Disparities in the Millionaire Contests

$20 Millionaire Winner

$4,444 Millionaire Winner

As mentioned above, it took big scores to compete for GPP wins, and that was especially true in the $20 millionaire where most of the most popular players did well, with a few of them reaching true ceiling outcomes. The $4,444 millionaire was actually a bit different, largely as a product of the size of tournament (only 767 entries), but that wasn’t the only reason. The more expensive tournament had a greater emphasis on the value plays, and many of those cheap-but-underpriced players had games that were below expectations. To name a few, Trey Sermon, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, and Will Dissly were all much more popular in the more expensive millionaire contest, and those three players combined for just 17 fantasy points. The $20 millionaire was much more spread out in terms of ownership, and that contributed to the higher scores, with the winner reaching 255.32 fantasy points compared to just 217.90 for the $4,444 millionaire. Nonetheless, both of these lineups won a million dollars as well as entries to the DraftKings Championship Series Tournament of Champions.

First Look at Week 5

The Week 5 slate could have some interesting situations, particularly at running back, where injuries to Joe Mixon and David Montgomery could create big opportunities for Samaje Perine ($4,000) and Damien Williams ($5,600). Derrick Henry ($9,000) is predictably priced up to the top of the RB category, but that situation is in flux as the statuses for Julio Jones ($6,700) and A.J. Brown ($6,500) are both up in the air. The Titans are in a great spot going into Jacksonville, and it could become an especially appealing scenario for either of those receivers if they can get back out on the field, but Henry’s workload would almost certainly remain massive if both of those receivers miss another game. There doesn’t appear to be too much pricing inefficiency elsewhere, so the injury fill-ins for Cincinnati and Chicago could wind up being quite popular.

At wide receiver, Jones and Brown each have a shot to become value plays if one of them plays while the other doesn’t, and they’d be appealing in that $6K range as many mid-tier receivers have recently reached the $7K threshold. DJ Moore ($7,500), Terry McLaurin ($7,400), and Deebo Samuel ($7,100) have all been bumped up after each of them topped 30 fantasy points in Week 4. Further down the list, injuries to Chase Claypool ($6,000) and Amari Cooper ($6,100) could open up more opportunities for JuJu Smith-Schuster ($5,000) and CeeDee Lamb ($6,200). Lamb in particular seems like a perfect buy-low candidate after two weak games in a row.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $4M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]

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All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

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