The fall swing continues this week with the Shriners Children’s Open at TPC Summerlin (par 71, 7,255 yards, bentgrass greens) in Las Vegas, Nevada. This par 71 has hosted the Shriners Open every year since 1992, and TPC Summerlin is without a doubt one of the easiest tracks on the annual PGA TOUR schedule. A year ago, the cutline for this event was -6, and Martin Laird won at -23. In addition, 26 of the 29 victors at TPC Summerlin have shot -20 or better. To contend at this birdie fest, being dialed in with your irons and flat stick is a must. Three of the past five Shriners champions have ranked inside the top five in SG APP and two of these five golfers led their fields in SGP.
Distance OTT isn’t a necessity at TPC Summerlin and finding the fairway has been far more of an advantage at this venue. Laird finished fifth in fairways gained a year ago and was the third Shriners winner over the last four years to rank in the top five. Also, Laird led his field in SG on the par fives and is the second Shriners winner in the last four years to accomplish this feat. On top of scoring on the par fives, being efficient on the 400 to 450-yard par fours will be crucial this week. Seven of the 11 par fours at TPC Summerlin fall in this range, and three of the previous five golfers to record a win in Vegas have ranked inside the top-20 in SG on these holes.
After seeing one of the weakest fields of the season this past week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, this year’s Shriners Open surprisingly boasts a compelling group of golfers, arguably the best in the tournament’s history. Headlined by Brooks Koepka, 15 of the top-30 players in the world will be bringing their talents to Sin City this week.
Following the first 36 holes, there will be a standard top-65 and ties cut, and below are four of my favorite DraftKings value plays under $7.5K for the Shriners Children’s Open.
Henrik Norlander, $7,000
Last week at the Sanderson Farms, no player in the field gained more strokes on approach than Norlander. The Swede set a new career-high with 8.4 SG APP, en route to a T4 finish. This marked Norlander’s second top-five in his past three starts and his eighth made cut in his last 11. When we analyze this field’s previous 12 rounds, Norlander ranks first in SG APP, second in SGT2G and third in SG on par fours from 400-450 yards.
The 34-year-old advanced through the cut at last season’s Shriners Open and is a no-brainer at this low price tag.
Ian Poulter, $7,000
While Poulter has never teed it up at TPC Summerlin before, the 45-year-old’s game sets up perfectly for this venue, and the oddsmakers tend to agree. Of all the golfers priced below $7.5K this week, Poulter holds the best odds to win the Shriners Open on DraftKings Sportsbook at +6000.
The Englishman just competed in the Ryder Cup, including a single-match win over Tony Finau, and has made 12 of his last 14 cuts worldwide. This run includes eight finishes inside the top-30, and over his last 24 rounds, Poulter ranks 25th in SGT2G, 10th in BOB%, seventh in SGP and 18th in SG on par fives. The veteran has made five consecutive cuts at venues that are home to bentgrass greens, and is an excellent value that shouldn’t be popular in GPPs.
Ryan Moore, $7,000
After missing four cuts in a row, Moore carded a T39 last week at the Sanderson Farms Championship, while gaining 2.9 strokes on APP in the process. The 38-year-old will now look to carry over this momentum to TPC Summerlin, where he has been extremely successful throughout his career. In 14 starts at the par 71, Moore has made 12 cuts, including seven top-25 finishes, most notably with a win in 2012.
For this field, he ranks second in career total strokes gained at TPC Summerlin, and Moore is criminally underpriced at $7,000, which is the cheapest he has ever been for a Shriners Open in the history of DraftKings golf.
Mark Hubbard, $6,100
If looking for a full punt play this week, look no further than Hubbard. Fresh off a T16 at the Fortinet Championship, the 32-year-old has proceeded to the weekend at 11 of his past 12 events, with four top-20 finishes coming during this stretch. Hubbard has been consistent with his irons and putter, gaining strokes on approach and on the greens in six of his past eight starts. Furthermore, he has been very effective on par fives, ranking fourth in par-five efficiency over his last 24 rounds, and also has been accurate with his driver, ranking 15th in fairways gained over the same timeframe.
Hubbard has been competing on the weekend in two of his last four tries at TPC Summerlin, and is a strong bet to get us four rounds of golf, which would be an immense return at his near-minimum salary.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is Hunta512) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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