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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 5

Stan Son gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

This is a much different week than the last two, as the juiciest games with the highest totals are both island games and off the main slate. That leaves only two games with an O/U of at least 50. In addition, there are five games with teams that are favored by at least a touchdown.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.


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Quarterback

Stud

Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals vs. San Francisco 49ers, $8,000 — To start this season, Murray has produced 34.56, 38.1, 22.54 and 22.62 DKFP. He threw four touchdowns vs. the Titans in Week 1, then followed that up with 400 yards and three touchdowns vs. the Vikings. He’s rushed at least five times in every game and scored three touchdowns on the ground.

Murray has the highest floor/ceiling combo at the position this week — maybe any week. He’s game-script-proof and produces fantasy goodies in a variety of ways. The Cardinals rush at the sixth-highest rate, and Murray has attempted 32, 36, 34 and 32 passes. Despite that, Arizona has run the ninth-most plays and are second in offensive pace, according to Sharp Football Stats.

DraftKings Sportsbook has this game with a 49.5 O/U, and the Cardinals are implied for 27 points. Points should be scored in this one.

In four career meetings against the 49ers, Murray has produced 23.04, 26.7, 27.3 and 16.38 DKFP.

Other Option – Dak Prescott ($6,900)

Value

Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans, $5,800 — It’s TL week, as I like both Trevor Lawrence and Trey Lance (if he starts) this week. That has to mean something, right? A glitch in the Matrix?

Anyways, after performing well in Week 1 vs. the Texans (25.08 DKFP on 51 pass attempts) Lawrence faced some tough defenses in the Broncos, Cardinals and Bengals, who are 11th, 9th and 27th in pass defense DVOA, respectively. Well, this week he gets a Titans defense that is 30th in pass defense DVOA and 29th in pass rush, according to PFF.

The Titans will likely score on offense, as they are implied for 26.25 points. The Jaguars are implied for 22.25, and the O/U is a healthy 48.5. According to Sharp Football Stats, the Titans are sixth in offensive pace while the Jags are fourth, so the action could go back and forth.

What excites me most about Lawrence is the rushing. After carrying the ball just one and two times in the first two weeks, he’s rushed six and eight times in the last two games and scored a touchdown on the ground last week.

His price is cheap, the ownership should be low and there’s plenty of upside in what could be a sneaky shootout. For full transparency, I thought the same for the Browns-Vikings game last week, so you’ve been warned.

Other Option – Trey Lance ($5,700), Daniel Jones (6,000)


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Running Back

Stud

Derrick Henry, Tennessee Titans at Jacksonville Jaguars, $9,000 — Henry was rostered on 28.7% of teams in the Milly Maker last weekend. He will likely be rostered on around 30% of teams this weekend. If the projected ownership level gets too high, then there is merit to fading him because, well, it’s football, and weird things can happen. That said, he’s in another great spot this week. The Jags are 24th in rush defense DVOA, and the Titans are favored by four points on the road.

Over the last three weeks, Henry has carried the ball 35 times for 182 yards and three touchdowns, 28 times for 113 yards and 33 times for 157 yards and a touchdown. He’s received six, three and two targets in the passing game and caught all of them. Henry has eight, three and five red-zone carries.

I don’t see this game getting away from either team, as the Jaguars should be able to put up points, and the Titans should score against the Jags defense, so the Big Dog should eat.

TL and DH for all the money?

Other Option – Dalvin Cook ($8,400)

Value

Leonard Fournette, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins, $5,200 – The Buccaneers are favored by 10 points at home vs. the Dolphins. Tampa Bay should be able to smother the offensive attack of Miami and employ a ground-and-pound attack on offense since the strength of the Dolphins defense is the secondary while they are 22nd in rush defense DVOA.

It seems Fournette has grabbed a stranglehold of the backfield. He carried 20 times for 91 yards last week while catching three of five targets for 47 yards. He has a total of four red-zone carries. Ronald Jones has rushed four, six, five and six times this season.

Other Options – Damien Harris ($5,500)


Wide Receiver

Stud

DJ Moore, Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles, $7,500 — Moore has been priced in the $5,900 to $6,100 range this season, but he gets a significant price bump for Week 5. Inflation! Feels like point chasing, smells like point chasing and could be point chasing, but he’s garnered eight, 11, 12 and 12 targets this season and gone over 100 yards in each of the last three games while scoring two touchdowns last week.

If the projected ownership gets too high, then a pivot or fade could be in order. Maybe it’s Robby Anderson ($5,000) week.

As it stands, the Eagles are 24th in pass defense DVOA, and Moore has a significant advantage against any cornerback the Eagles line up against him.

Other Options – Davante Adams ($8,200)

Value

Laviska Shenault/Marvin Jones, Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Tennessee Titans, $4,800/$5,700 – I’m high on Lawrence this week, so naturally, I’m going to recommend the receivers. Jones leads the team with 31 targets on the season while Shenault has 27. DJ Chark has 22, but he’s out for the year now, so more targets should flow toward Shenault and Jones.

The Titans are 30th in pass defense DVOA and 31st in adjusted sack rate. They blitz at the 10th-highest rate, so that means plenty of man coverage and one-on-one opportunities.

Jones lines up all over the formation but spends most of the time on the right. Janoris Jenkins usually mans that side, and his PFF score is 55.9. Shenault primarily operates from the slot and matches up against Chris Jackson, who has a 64.7 PFF rating.

Other Options – Hunter Renfrow ($4,900)


Tight End

Stud

Dalton Schultz, Dallas Cowboys vs. New York Giants, $4,400 – Schultz is the No. 1 tight end for the Cowboys. He’s played 69%, 73%, 69% and 79% of the snaps while Blake Jarwin ($3,200) has languished in the 50% range. Schultz has 23 targets on the season while Jarwin has 13.

Outside of a two-target game vs. the Chargers, Schultz has caught 6 of 6 targets for 45 yards, 6 of 7 targets for 80 yards and two touchdowns and 6 of 8 targets for 58 yards and a touchdown.

Now he gets a matchup against a Giants team that has historically had issues defending opposing tight ends and are 24th in DVOA against the position this season.

Other Options – Darren Waller ($7,300)

Value

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, $3,500 – The Vikings are favored by nine points, so there’s a chance it’s Dalvin Cook (if he plays) to the right, Dalvin Cook to the left and Dalvin Cook up the middle all game. That said, Kirk Cousins should still attempt at least 30 passes.

Conkin has garnered four, four, eight and six targets, catching one touchdown. He has two games with fewer than 20 yards, but 41 and 70 yards in the other two, so the range is wide. The matchup is the best in the league for tight ends, though, as the Lions are dead-last in DVOA against the position.

Other Options – C.J. Uzomah ($3,000)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Patriots DST at Houston Texans, $4,900 – The Bills scored 23 DKFP vs. the Texans last week, as they racked up three sacks, one fumble and four interceptions. Now Davis Mills gets to face off against a Bill Belichick-led defense that usually feasts on rookie quarterbacks.

The price is high, and defenses have so much variance, so this is not an automatic 20-burger. That said, there should be chances for turnovers, and the ownership should be very low considering the price tag and nice options at a cheaper price point.

Other Option – Broncos ($4,200)

Value

Raiders DST vs. Chicago Bears, $2,900 – The Raiders have the top-ranked pass rush score, according to PFF. They’ve notched at least two sacks in every game this season. Now they get a rookie quarterback in Justin Fields, who got sacked nine times vs. the Browns. A nine-sack performance shouldn’t be expected, but a few should be in the cards.

Other Option – Cardinals ($2,900)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is steveazors) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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