Week 5 is coming. If you’re reading this on Sunday, it’s here. We’re going to talk about it and help point you in the right direction to make some money and build those fantasy lineups.
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Game Notes
Biggest DraftKings Sportsbook Moneyline Favorite
Miami Dolphins (+340) at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (-10; -450)
Betting trends:
Buccaneers 2021 home record: 2-0
Buccaneers 2021 home record when favored: 2-0
Buccaneers 2021 ATS record: 1-3
Buccaneers 2021 ATS record when favored: 1-3
Dolphins 2021 road record: 1-1
Dolphins 2021 road record as underdogs: 1-1
Dolphins 2021 ATS record: 2-2
Dolphins 2021 ATS record as underdogs: 2-1
The Buccaneers are the biggest favorites on this slate, followed closely by the Vikings (-425) hosting the Lions. After being mostly held in check by the Patriots defense last week, the Bucs have another tough defensive matchup coming up. The Dolphins have allowed an average of just 21.1 points per game, which is the fourth-lowest in the league. Opposing teams have found most of their success against the Dolphins on the ground but the Bucs are rushing the ball on just 29% of their plays, which is the second-lowest in the league. Opposing backs have averaged a solid 123 rushing yards per game (4.4 YPC) and five rushing touchdowns. With that said, Leonard Fournette ($5,200) is coming off a game where he carried the ball 20 times and saw five targets for 138 total yards and 16.8 DKFP. His salary only rose slightly from last week as well, making him a potential lower-tier option.
As for the passing options, this is a tough week to roll with Tom Brady ($7,400) as the second-highest priced option. While he hasn’t seen much pressure to start the season (24.6% of dropbacks) the Dolphins do rank within the Top-10 pass rush in the league. Between how good their corners of been (65% reception rate, 11.1 YPR), Brady isn’t an option I’m looking to use. Chris Godwin ($6,300) will draw the most favorable matchup amongst the receivers against CB Justin Coleman. In coverage, Coleman has allowed an average of 13.2 YPR on 11 receptions and 12 targets. It’s also worth nothing that Coleman was used as the RCB heavily in Week 4 was used as the RCB heavily in Week 4 (61% of his snaps), so if that continues, that would also be a bump to Antonio Brown ($5,200) who leads the team in aDOT (average distance of target) at 15.2.
Other notable favorites: Detroit Lions (+320) vs Minnesota Vikings (-9.5; -425), New England Patriots (-8.5; -380) at Houston Texans (+290)
Highest DraftKings Sportsbook Projected Total
New York Giants (+250) at Dallas Cowboys (-7; -320) Over/Under: 52.5
Betting trends:
Giants 2021 road record: 1-1
Giants 2021 road record as underdogs: 1-1
Giants 2021 Over/Under record: 2-2
Giants 2021 Over/Under record when underdogs: 2-1
Cowboys 2021 home record: 2-0
Cowboys 2021 home record as favorites: 2-0
Cowboys 2021 Over/Under record: 3-1
Cowboys 2021 Over/Under record as favorites: 2-0
Not a lot of big totals on the board for Week 5, with this being the highest projected at 52.5. Both the over and under are seeing lines of -110 but this has risen from 49 points over a week ago. Since then, it’s been bouncing up and down between 52 and 52.5. These teams have combined to go 5-3 on the over this season with the Cowboys tied for the second-best record in the league while covering by an average of +3.1 points. In the Cowboys three games that’ve gone over, they’ve scored an average of 35.3 points. The Giants have averaged 28 points in the two games they’ve gone over, one of which came last week against the Saints.
Defense hasn’t exactly been the strong point for the Giants this season, who have allowed an average of 23.7 points per game through the first four weeks. While that lands them around league average, they’re now facing 31.5 points per game, the fourth-best in the league. Dak Prescott ($6,900) has thrown for at least three touchdowns in three of their four games while averaging 266 yards and a 79% adjusted completion percentage. I can’t imagine he’s going to have much push back from a defense that’s ranked near the bottom of the league in passing pressure. Prescott has been phenomenal with a clean pocket, averaging 8.6 YPA, nine of his 10 passing touchdowns and an 83.2% adjusted completion.
Other notable total: Green Bay Packers (-3; -150) at Cincinnati Bengals (+130) O/U 50.5
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NFL Week 5 Betting Splits
These splits will be updated daily. Feel free to visit later in the week to see the most updated splits from DraftKings Sportsbook.
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NFL Betting Trends
This section will showcase some of the best and worst teams against the spread and with the over/under.
Teams Against the Spread:
Best Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Dallas Cowboys | 12-4 | 5.1 |
| Green Bay Packers | 12-4 | 1.3 |
| New England Patriots | 10-6 | 7.5 |
| Tennessee Titans | 10-6 | 3.6 |
| Arizona Cardinals | 10-6 | 2.4 |
Worst Teams ATS
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Record | ATS +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 4-12 | -7.6 |
| Carolina Panthers | 5-11 | -2.8 |
| Chicago Bears | 6-10 | -0.6 |
| New York Jets | 6-10 | -4.3 |
| New York Giants | 6-10 | -2.5 |
Teams Over/Under Records:
Best Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| New York Jets | 10-6 | 4.4 |
| Minnesota Vikings | 10-6 | 1.4 |
| Los Angeles Rams | 8-7-1 | -0.8 |
| Buffalo Bills | 8-8 | -1.8 |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8-8 | 0.4 |
Worst Team Over Records
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
|---|---|---|
| Team | Over Record | Total +/- |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 5-11 | -3.8 |
| Seattle Seahawks | 5-10-1 | -3.3 |
| New York Giants | 5-10-1 | -4.5 |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6-10 | -2.1 |
| New Orleans Saints | 6-10 | -2.8 |
Target Report
Target Report
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Player | Team | Week 13 Opponent | Avg. TPG | Avg YPT |
| Cooper Kupp | LAR | MIN | 11.7 | 9.9 |
| Diontae Johnson | PIT | KC | 10.4 | 7.6 |
| Tyreek Hill | KC | PIT | 10.3 | 8.2 |
| Keenan Allen | LAC | HOU | 10.3 | 7.5 |
| Justin Jefferson | MIN | LAR | 9.8 | 9.7 |
| DJ Moore | CAR | TB | 9.5 | 7.4 |
| Marquise Brown | BAL | CIN | 9.3 | 7.5 |
| Stefon Diggs | BUF | NE | 9.1 | 7.9 |
| Travis Kelce | KC | PIT | 8.7 | 8.7 |
| Mark Andrews | BAL | CIN | 8.7 | 8.7 |
Lineup Starters
Quarterback to build around
Kirk Cousins, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, $6,500 — Cousins has seen very little change in his salary this season, despite posting an average of 22.4 DKFP, 280 passing yards and nine touchdowns. Now, he’s one of the biggest favorites on the board and is eighth-most expensive QB on the board? C’mon now!
Cousins has been a -10 favorite or better eight times in his career and has averaged 19.5 DKFP in those games. The most recent occurrence was last year against the Jaguars, where he dropped 26.4 DKFP on them as a -10.5 favorite. Cousins has endured a pretty tough scheduled thus far and has hit at least 4x his salary in three of those games, which came against the Bengals, Cardinals and Seahawks. This should be a much softer matchup against the Lions, who have allowed an average of 29.8 points per game, the fourth-highest in the league. With Dalvin Cook ($8,400) still banged up heading into this week, we’ve seen Cousins drop back 80 times over the past two weeks.
Player props for Kirk Cousins on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Passing Yards: 283.5 (over -115 under -115)
Passing TDs: 2.5 (over +160 under -215)
Pass + Rush Yards: 290.5 (over -115 under -115)
Pass attempts: 33.5 (over -120 under -110)
Wide Receiver To Pair Him With
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings vs. Detroit Lions, $7,700 — Jefferson has climbed up to the second-most expensive receiver on this slate, behind only Davante Adams ($8,200). While Adams has only reached the end zone once, Jefferson has done so in three straight weeks, averaging 23 DKFP in those games. Jefferson has some of the best individual matchups on this slate, He’s mostly played on the left side of the field (41% of his snaps), so he’ll see a lot of CB Amani Oruwariye. He’s been targeted against 16 times, allowing 11 receptions for 151 yards and an average of 13.7 YPR. Jefferson dominates the Vikings in air yards with 417 while giving him an aDOT of 11.2. With those numbers in mind and the Lions allowing a league-leading 11.7 YPT, Jefferson should feast on this secondary.
Player props for Justin Jefferson on DraftKings Sportsbook:
Receptions: 6.5 (over +110 under -150)
Receiving Yards: 82.5 (over -115 under -115)
Longest Receptions: 26.5 (over -115 under -115)
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