Welcome to the weekly tournament plays article for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate. I’m going to be focusing purely on high-upside plays and stacks that are likely to be lower-owned in the largest tournaments on the slate. There will be a lot of bust potential found here on most weeks, but big GPPs are generally not won by making the popular moves.
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Stacks
Cincinnati Bengals vs. Green Bay Packers
Joe Burrow ($6,100) - Tyler Boyd ($5,300) - Davante Adams ($8,200)
The Bengals are coming off a win in Week 4 which saw them throw the ball a season-high 32 times and they may be without the services of lead running back Joe Mixon, who hasn’t practiced at all in Week 5 as of Thursday. If so, a heavier passing game plan could be in order here and that should really bump up the upside this week on a player like Joe Burrow, especially in a game that has a healthy 51.5 over/under attached to it on DraftKings Sportsbook.
Burrow had one of the most efficient games of the season at quarterback in Week 4, completing 78% of his passes while averaging 12.13 yards per attempt. The Packers are also going to be without their best defensive player on Sunday in Jaire Alexander and that should really open things up for Burrow and the Bengals’ wide receivers. You could certainly stack more than one of Ja’Marr Chase ($5,800), Tee Higgins ($5,000) and Tyler Boyd here, but Boyd is the one who interests me the most from a dollar-to-usage perspective. The wideout has averaged nine targets per game since Week 2 and led the team with 11 targets in their comeback win last week. Boyd’s usage across the formation on screens and over the middle should wreak havoc on a thin Packers secondary who just gave up a monster game to a similar profiled slot receiver in Diontae Johnson.
Given the injury to Aaron Jones ($7,900) and the effectiveness of the Bengals’ rush defense in 2021 (opponents are averaging just 3.26 yards per carry), Davante Adams is the preferred Packers comeback target for me. The Bengals’ secondary just allowed Trevor Lawrence to set career highs in yards per attempt and completion rate, and have allowed big games now to solid possession/big-bodied receivers like Adam Thielen and Laviska Shenault. If this game is a shootout, Adams seems likely to be the biggest beneficiary from the Packers’ offense and playing him with the Bengals’ cheaper players gives you a unique build that will allow for more studs at other positions.
Just Missed: Daniel Jones ($6,000) - Ezekiel Elliott ($7,000) - Kenny Golladay ($5,900)
Quarterback
Jacoby Brissett, Miami Dolphins at Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($5,200)
So far in 2021, targeting opposing quarterbacks against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers has been a fantasy goldmine. Teams are averaging 46.5 pass attempts against Tampa in 2021, which is the most in the league by a wide margin. Jacoby Brissett isn’t going to scare anyone from a downfield perspective, as he’s averaged just 4.9 yards per attempt since taking over as the starter, but he does bring an extra element here as a runner. Brissett has attempted 10 rushes over the last two games and most of his 37 yards against the Raiders came when his team was down big.
The bottom line here is that the Dolphins are massive underdogs, so we can likely expect a little bit of prevent defense which is either going to lead to more Brissett rushes or a better yards per attempt than we’ve seen from him thus far. His price is rock bottom and is taking on a Tampa defense that is allowing a 73.5% completion rate to opposing quarterbacks, and averaging under 2.0 sacks per game. Brissett is not elite, but the setup here is, and he should be high on your radar for GPPs in Week 5.
Just Missed: Ryan Tannehill ($6,400)
Running Back
Nick Chubb, Cleveland Browns at Los Angeles Chargers ($6,700)
With the Chargers coming off a huge division win on Monday Night Football, I love targeting this weaker rush defense with an elite runner like Nick Chubb. The Chargers may have shut down the Raiders last week, but they’re still allowing 5.3 yards per carry and face a completely different animal here in the Browns. Chubb himself is averaging 5.2 yards per carry and has averaged 21.5 carries now in each of the Browns’ last two games. Despite the great usage and efficiency, his DraftKings price has actually dropped this week, mainly due to the fact that he’s now gone two weeks without a TD.
With the kind of opportunities that Chubb is getting though (and the kind of yardage he’s posting), the TDs will eventually come. From a cash game perspective, the fact he’s losing red zone touches to Kareem Hunt ($5,800) every week is concerning, but from a tournament/upside perspective a long touchdown is what we’re after here and we are certainly overdue for Chubb to take one in from long distance (he’s had nine TD runs of 20 yards or more in his career). Take the discount on the Browns’ lead rusher this week in a spot that has tons of big-play potential.
Just Missed: Damien Harris ($5,500)
Wide Receiver
Kenny Golladay, New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys ($5,900)
Golladay finally had a mini-breakout game against the Saints. The former Lion still hasn’t found the end zone as a Giant but he did record his first 100-yard game of 2021, going for six catches and 116 yards on seven targets. The 19.33 yards per catch was vintage Golladay, and he put up big numbers against a Saints pass defense that graded out as one of the best in the league prior to Week 4. The growing trust between Golladay and Daniel Jones ($6,000) should be noted here for Week 5 as the matchup for Golladay couldn’t be better.
While Trevon Diggs has made some noise with a couple of big plays in the secondary, the Cowboys have had a rough time stopping bigger wideouts in 2021—both DJ Moore and Mike Williams were able to go for 90+ yards and at least one TD against Dallas. Golladay’s domination of a physical Saints secondary last week should have us licking our chops here and the fact that one or both of Sterling Shepard and Darius Slayton could miss this game means monster usage could also be in store. In a game where the Giants (+7.5 on the spread on DraftKings Sportsbook) are projected to be behind late, Golladay’s cheap price makes him the perfect upside option at wide receiver for Week 5.
Just Missed: Laviska Shenault ($4,800)
Tight End
Cameron Brate, Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. Miami Dolphins ($3,300)
The Buccaneers’ receiving crew can be headache-inducing for DFS purposes as a breakout game for any of their big three wideouts can happen at any time. The good news for Week 5 is that we can avoid the headache and still get a piece of that sweet 29-point implied team total for Tampa here by looking to the tight end position.
With Rob Gronkowski out against the Patriots, Cameron Brate was the only Buccaneers tight end to catch a pass in Week 4. While he only took in two of his six targets, the usage was obviously encouraging and it seems like once ballyhooed prospect OJ Howard remains stuck in Bruce Arians’ proverbial doghouse.
Just Missed: Mike Gesicki ($4,200)
DST
Cleveland Browns ($2,700) at Los Angeles Chargers
For a team that ranks third in sacks per game, the Browns’ DST looks quite undervalued here at $2.7K and likely won’t have heavy ownership attached given the matchup against second-year darling Justin Herbert ($6,800). Herbert is #Good and the Chargers’ offensive line and offensive scheme have kept him sheltered so far in 2021, but the Browns do have the ability to dominate this game on both sides. The Chargers have also allowed 5.3 yards per rush (third-worst in the NFL) and any Nick Chubb breakout will surely put Herbert in some dangerous and very obvious passing situations late in this game.
Herbert’s had two clean games in a row but was guilty of two picks against Dallas when put in a catch-up situation late in that game as well. Cleveland’s DST is also averaging 8.0 DKFP and has allowed just 16.8 real points per game, but has yet to score a special teams or defensive touchdown. This crew has proven it has a great floor and if the upside plays hit for them this week, they’ll be a potential GPP winner given the cheap price tag.
Just missed: Dallas Cowboys ($2,800)
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