Here’s where I’m looking on the Week 6 card for college football.
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Georgia at Auburn
Georgia 1H -7.5 (-110)
1-Unit Play on 10/8
Auburn 1H TT U7.5 (-105)
1.5-Unit Play on 10/8
How’s this for a stat? Georgia is allowing 4.6 points per game to its opponents so far this season — 23 points through five games. In games against top-10 competition (at the time of the game), the Bulldogs held Clemson and Arkansas to a combined three points. Georgia is coming off consecutive shutouts of SEC competition, last allowing points on September 18.
Sure, this is a tougher road test against an offense that’s showed some flash, but I’m not concerned. Bo Nix was making dazzling plays at Death Valley last Saturday night, but this defense will turn those plays into sacks and/or turnovers. I don’t care who’s at QB for Georgia, I like them to build a lead of more than a touchdown at halftime, and likely blank the Tigers on the scoreboard.
Penn State at Iowa
Penn State Moneyline (+110)
1-Unit Play on 10/8
I don’t have quite as much conviction on this game, but it’s also not one I’m willing to sit out from taking a position on. It’s tough going against the Iowa defense at home, but the Hawkeyes have benefitted from poor competition this season. Don’t get me wrong, credit to Iowa for all the turnovers and defensive touchdowns thus far, but this is going to be a different test.
The Nittany Lions will protect the ball, and match Iowa’s defensive intensity. This is the game the Hawkeyes are going to have to win on offense, and I don’t think they’ll be able to make the necessary plays without their defense handing them the ball in scoring position.
Notre Dame at Virginia Tech
Virginia Tech +1 (-110)
1-Unit Play on 10/8
Full on Notre Dame fade in a very tough spot. The Irish have been squeaking by all season, including a flukey final score against a dreadful Wisconsin team. It finally caught up to them at home, against a Cincinnati team that simply needed the win more.
Now Notre Dame has that loss on its resume, ending the unrealistic dream that it actually had a shot at the College Football Playoff. The Irish go on the road to a super tough environment in Blacksburg — many of you watched that upset win over UNC for the Hokies in the season opener. V-Tech is coming off a bye and has had two weeks to prepare for a ND team that’s been on a rollercoaster lately. I like the home team with a strong defense to find a way to get this done.
LSU at Kentucky
Kentucky -3 (-115)
2-Unit Play on 10/8
LSU is coming off a very disappointing home loss to Auburn on Saturday night. It needs a bounce-back. Kentucky is coming off the high of all highs, taking down Florida in a huge upset at home last Saturday night. This should be a flat spot for it. I’m fading all of the spots and laying the points with the better team at home.
LSU just doesn’t have the players to compete with top SEC competition, and that’s exactly what Kentucky is at this point. The Wildcats play tenacious defense and are very difficult to beat at home. As far as they’re concerned, they’re playing to get to 6-0 and keep alive a CFP dream (even though they’ll be getting SMOKED by Georgia next week). We have to let these kids dream. We’re getting a discount on the better team here at home because of the spot, and I’ll gladly take it. No reason Kentucky shouldn’t be up for another massive Saturday night game against big-name competition.
Alabama at Texas A&M
Alabama 1H -10.5 (-105)
4-Unit Play on 10/7
Yes, 4-units. Largest position of the CFB season, and I like it all the way up to 12.5. Let’s go!
Not much to say here on the ‘Bama side. The Tide are shot out of a cannon every single week to start these games, going 5-0 ATS in the first half of games. Alabama has played all afternoon games so far, and now gets the Saturday night spotlight in a divisional game. I expect more early domination.
The lookahead line for this full game over the summer was 10.5, and now we’re laying it for the first half. But that just speaks to how bad A&M has been. This team has almost lost some really bad games, and looked dreadful in SEC competition, going 0-2 while favored in both games. The Aggies simply do not have it this season, and are about to run into a buzzsaw on Saturday night and get flat out embarrassed. Roll Tide!
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