It’s Week 5 in the NFL, and I’m back again to survey each game for value player props. I’m going to be betting on Zach Wilson again after he cashed his over for us last week, along with a couple skill position players in favorable matchups. Here are my favorite prop bets on DraftKings Sportsbook.
All odds provided by DraftKings Sportsbook and all odds subject to change.
I realize it was just one week, but I’m still surprised to see Wilson’s passing total so low against a similarly-crummy secondary in the Falcons. Atlanta has not only allowed 7.6 yards per pass and 264 yards per game ― both of which rank in the bottom third of the league — it also has yet to pick off a pass. It appears that nothing has changed with the Falcons, and their secondary is still terrible.
We saw last week that Matt LaFleur isn’t afraid to call a pass-heavy game against a bad secondary to exploit his opponent’s weakness, so you shouldn’t expect anything to change this week. As long as he’s throwing the ball, he will get this over.
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There’s no reason for the Browns to do anything but run on Sunday. Not only are they one of the best in football at doing this, they also have a soft matchup with a Chargers defense that has played the pass spectacularly.
Los Angeles ranks down in 30th in yards allowed per rush at 5.3, and opponents are running it almost 44% of the time against this front seven. This game plan should call for a whole lot of Nick Chubb, and there’s not a total that’s too high for me to take the over on. Chubb — and this offensive line — are that good, and this is a fantastic matchup.
We still don’t really have a large sample size to work with when it comes to Taylor Heinicke, but it does appear he likes to run. He has gone for 87 yards in four games, rushing 20 times in the process. While he had one quiet game on the ground against the Giants with just six yards, that was also a game where he threw a ridiculous 46 times and could sit in the pocket with all kinds of time.
Cam Jordan and this Saints front four should have Heinicke running for his life, meaning he will be outside of the pocket plenty and should pick up more than enough to cash the over. He’s coming off a 43-yard game on the ground against Atlanta under similar circumstances, where Washington elected to throw a lot but faced a decent pass rush. We could be in for more of the same.
If we learned one thing from last Sunday’s Pats-Bucs game, it’s that Antonio Brown appears to be in the running for Tom Brady’s top wideout. He had 11 targets in that game and aside from a Week 2 dud and a COVID-related absence in Week 3, he’s put together two solid showings. Furthermore, Brown appears to be the top deep threat for Brady.
Now, the Dolphins have a very good secondary. Xavien Howard and Byron Jones, assuming they suit up (both are questionable). should guard Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. That should give Brown the best matchup of any Buccaneers receiver, and Brady should be looking his way often yet again.
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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is jetsfan196) and I may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.
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