clock menu more-arrow no yes mobile

Filed under:

Fantasy Football Picks: Bills vs. Chiefs DraftKings NFL DFS SNF Showdown Strategy

Reid Fowler preps you for Sunday’s 8:20 p.m. ET contest between the Bills and the Chiefs with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

After a few weeks of average primetime games, we find ourselves in an “embarrassment of riches” situation with two of the best offenses in the league in the Buffalo Bills and Kansas City Chiefs. This game is the highest point total of the week as of press time, which means there are multiple ways to approach who to roster from a Showdown perspective.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Sunday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (BUF vs KC)


Captain’s Picks

Patrick Mahomes ($18,000 CP) - The overarching narrative is that the Bills will march into Arrowhead with a revenge mentality and beat the Chiefs. In the words of Lee Corso, “Not so fast, my friend.” Mahomes is coming off a five-touchdown performance against the Eagles last week, and while the Bills sport the No. 1 pass defense and in overall DVOA, Mahomes has either finished seventh or second in PPR scoring over the first four weeks. Some of the Bills’ high defensive ranks result from playing Jacoby Brissett and rookie Davis Mills and it should be noted that the Dolphins and Texans rank 29th and 32nd in total offense per Mahomes has thrown for no less than three TDs per game this season and has the second-highest fantasy points per dropback (0.79) amongst all eligible quarterbacks.

Travis Kelce ($13,800 CP) - The Bills’ defense could be missing top linebacker Matt Milano, who’s still recovering from a hamstring injury. If Milano is out, Kelce could be up against more zone coverage, a mix of safety/Nickel DBs or LB A.J. Klein, which are plus matchups for Kelce. In last year’s AFC Championship matchup, Kelce went for 39.8 DKFP, which was the highest mark of any player in both conference title games. Kelce is coming off a poor performance last week (6.3 DKFP) in a game where Mahomes threw five TDs and this feels like a bounceback spot for the best tight end in the NFL. Kelce is second in total targets (32) this season and we should expect Mahomes to be looking his way quite a bit.

FLEX Plays

Stefon Diggs ($8,800) - With the exception of last week, Diggs hasn’t done well this season, finishing WR29, WR30 and WR36 in his first three games. Still, Diggs should be a focal point against the Chiefs’ secondary, which ranks inside the top 13 in DKFP given up to opposing WRs per game. Diggs will spend most of his time lined up against DeAndre Baker, who has given up 15.7 yards per reception this season.

Devin Singletary ($5,200) - If you’re looking to save, choosing the cheaper RB for the Bills could be the way to go. The Chiefs’ defense has been struggling against, well, everyone and everything, ranking 22nd in pass coverage and 32nd in rush defense grades, according to Zack Moss ($6,600) and Singletary split the carries evenly last week, so take the $1,400 cost savings and hope for Singletary to get in the end zone.


Tyreek Hill ($10,400) - What goes up must come back down. It’s seldom wise to associate “fade” with Hill in a high-scoring game, but Kelce is much more appealing given Milano’s injury. Hill is coming off a 50-plus DKFP day against the Philadelphia Eagles, so you better believe the Bills will want to contain him.


The Bills have a lot of momentum and are playing great on both sides of the ball, but the Chiefs at Arrowhead are a much different opponent than the other four teams the Bills have faced this season. Since 2018, KC holds the highest win percentage (76.7%) at home with the third-largest margin of victory per game (7.6). This should still be high-scoring, but the Chiefs are currently sitting in last place in the AFC West and need this W. A loss to the Bills after losing to the Los Angeles Chargers will set them back in their hopes for another playoff run and potential Super Bowl bid.

Final Score: Kansas City Chiefs 34, Buffalo Bills 30

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $2.25M Sunday Night Millionaire [$1M to 1st] (BUF vs KC)

Put your knowledge to the test. Sign up for DraftKings and experience the game inside the game.

For sports betting, head over to DraftKings Sportsbook or download the DK Sportsbook app.

All views expressed are my own. I am an employee of DraftKings and am ineligible to play in public DFS or DKSB contests.

If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL).

Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER (MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 1-800-BETS OFF (IA), 1-888-532-3500 (VA), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ) or call/text TN REDLINE 1-800-889-9789 (TN).

21+ (18+ NH/WY). AZ/CO/IL/IN/IA/MI/NH/NJ/PA/TN/VA/WV/WY only. Eligibility restrictions apply. See for full terms and conditions.