The Houston offense woke up in Game 5. After scoring 67 runs in the 10 ALDS and ALCS games, the Astros scored 11 runs in the first four games of the World Series with seven coming in Game 2. After a nine run outburst on Sunday night, will the Astros stay awake or will their bats fall asleep again?
Atlanta Braves vs. Houston Astros
Captain’s Picks
Jorge Soler ($11,400 CP) — In Game 5, Soler only earned one hit, but he registered three more hard hit batted ball events (BBE) — exit velocities of 105.4, 105.8 and 109.9 mph. He is absolutely tearing the cover off the ball in the postseason. All seven of his BBEs in the NLDS were hard hits. He then missed the NLCS because of COVID, but he has picked up right where he left off. In the World Series, Seven of his 10 BBEs have been hard hits. Soler will likely hit the ball hard at least once in Game 6, and if he elevates, then that’s a home run and he’s in the winning Showdown lineup.
Yuli Gurriel ($11,700 CP) — The most significant Astro in Game 5 might have been Carlos Correa ($13,200 CP), but Gurriel went 3-for-5 with an RBI and two runs scored. That raised his postseason hit total to 19 (fourth-most) and RBI total to 10 (fifth-most). It was also his sixth multi-hit game of the postseason. Against left-handed pitching this season, Gurriel had a .389 wOBA, .204 ISO, 152 wRC+ and 8% K rate. Gurriel has continued to be a tough out for pitchers in the playoffs, only striking out four times in the ALCS and World Series, while drawing five walks. As if he wasn’t pesky enough at the plate, he’s also stolen two bases in the last six games.
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $250K Game 6 Extravaganza [$50K to 1st] (ATL vs HOU)
Value Plays
Eddie Rosario ($5,800) — A broken record skips or repeats, it’s not broken as in being flawed. The value plays remain unchanged. Just keep playing Eddie Rosario and Michael Brantley on repeat. If anything is broken as in flawed, it’s the DraftKings pricing algorithm. Rosario was hitless in Game 5 and unable to add to his postseason-leading total of 23 hits, but he did draw two walks. In Game 6, he’ll face a starter that has been very shaky in Luis Garcia and a bullpen that has been worked to death over the last month.
Michael Brantley ($6,600) — The Eddie Rosario of the Astros is Michael Brantley. Some DFS players will hesitate to take the obvious value play because of the dreaded lefty-vs-lefty matchup. That was the case in Game 2 when Brantley matched up against Max Fried ($15,900 CP; $10,600), but it didn’t seem to bother the batter with the second-most postseason hits (20). Brantley had three batted ball events and all were hard hits against left-handed pitching — exit velocities of 99.2, 101.3 and 100.3 mph (the first two were vs. Fried and the last was vs. Drew Smyly).
Fades
Luis Garcia ($14,400 CP; $9,600) — Fading pitchers in the playoffs has been fantastic. Garcia struggled in his first two postseason starts, but rebounded in Game 6 against Boston and was solid in a limited role in Game 3 of the World Series. He struck out six against Boston and seven in just 3 2/3 innings against the Braves. While the strikeouts are very appealing, the innings are not. This is do-or-die time for Dusty Baker and the Astros, and Baker has already exhibited a willingness to go to his bullpen early. The strikeouts could be key on this Showdown slate, but Garcia also walked four batters and allowed three hits in that short outing. As soon as the bases get clogged with runners, Baker is going to yank the 24-year-old.
The Outcome
Max Fried surrendered six earned runs in Game 2, but that was the result of allowing five singles in the second inning — only one was a hard hit. That wasn’t the first time the BABIP gods cursed Max Fried. His 2021 season started off miserably due to BABIP, but eventually the hits regressed to the mean and he had a terrific season. Fried was actually pretty good in Game 2, he struck out six and allowed two hits outside of the second inning singles session. This is a tough lineup, but Fried will limit the Astros just enough to secure the World Series win for Atlanta.
Final Score: Braves 5, Astros 4
Set your DraftKings fantasy baseball lineups here: MLB Showdown $250K Game 6 Extravaganza [$50K to 1st] (ATL vs HOU)
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