Wednesday features a massive 13-game NBA main slate, and the action gets underway at 7:00 p.m. ET. With this many games, there’s no time for salutations or clever introductions. Let’s go position-by-position and break down everything you’ll need to know to set your lineups.
Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors vs. Minnesota Timberwolves, $11,700 — Most DFS players will avoid Curry because he just had a monster game and that’s “point chasing” (also, this is his highest price point on DraftKings ever). Most DFS players haven’t watched Curry’s games. His explosion against the Hawks (50 points, seven rebounds and 10 assists) could have come every night this season. Unfortunately for DFS players and fortunately for Warriors fans, Curry rarely plays in competitive games. Even the Atlanta game was only competitive for three quarters — the Warriors were down by double-digits in the second quarter, but Curry put the nail in the coffin by the end of the third. There is risk with this stud because Golden State is a seven-point favorite, but this game has the second highest total on the slate and Curry is coming off a game where he scored the most DKFP on the night before the fourth quarter even began.
Other Options: LaMelo Ball ($10,000)
Ricky Rubio, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards, $5,200 — Here is your warning. This article is published in the early morning hours, value plays will change throughout the day, but on a 13-game slate, it’s possible that every single value play becomes irrelevant by 7 p.m. ET (follow @DKLive for the latest lineup news). This feels like a little bit of chasing with Rubio coming off of an 8-9 three-point shooting night at New York. However, Rubio has played 27.9 mpg with a 23% usage rate and 57% True Shooting% this season which has translated into 1.0 FPPM. With Collin Sexton out, Rubio is projected to play at least 30 minutes and he’ll also see a bump due to pace. Cleveland plays at the 23rd fastest rate, while the Wizards play at the 18th fastest rate.
Other Options: Cade Cunningham ($5,200)
Will Barton, Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers, $6,300 — Nikola Jokic is throwing his hat in the ring as a possible replacement for Von Miller, and on Wednesday he’ll have a day off to attend a tryout (one-game suspension). Jokic’s suspension is likely the first of many bombs that will go off pre-lock, but for now, the Nuggets and Pacers receive a post-pricing fantasy boost. Barton’s usage rate has been south of 20% in 5 of 10 games, and he’s eclipsed 24% only three times. However, with Jokic out and Michael Porter Jr set to miss his second game in a row, Barton is almost a lock for a 30% usage rate and 34 minutes. Against the Heat (No. 5 in defensive efficiency), Barton was extremely efficient, scoring 45.8 DKFP with just a 17% usage rate.
Other Options: Devin Booker ($9,800)
Garrett Temple, New Orleans Pelicans vs. Oklahoma City Thunder, $3,400 — Make sure to follow @DKLive or download the DK Live app for lineup updates because this game comes down to whether Brandon Ingram — his last game was Oct. 29 — plays or not. In Ingram’s absence, Temple has been one of the best value plays over the last two weeks, and his salary has not budged. He played strong in the final minutes of a loss to Phoenix and earned a role in the starting rotation. In his three starts, he’s scored 30.3, 13.3 and 30.5 DKFP.
Other Options: Jalen Suggs ($4,400)
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Miles Bridges, Charlotte Hornets at Memphis Grizzlies, $8,100 — Kevin Durant is the obvious play and won’t garner much ownership because it’s unlikely any high priced stud does on a 13-game slate. The fear with Miles Bridges is that the return of Terry Rozier ($6,300), Kelly Oubre Jr ($4,200) and Gordon Hayward ($6,800) will limit Bridge’s fantasy production, but that has not been the case. Even outside of the overtime game with the Lakers, Bridges still scored 40 DKFP in a tough matchup with the Clippers. Tonight, the Hornets — an up-tempo team (third in pace) — will face the Grizzlies — a bad defense (third-worst defensive efficiency rating). This is a great spot that no one is targeting because of the perceived crowded rotation and the fact that this slate is 13 games deep.
Other Options: Kevin Durant ($10,900)
PJ Dozier, Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers, $4,100 — As of Wednesday A.M., virtually every value play is in the Nuggets-Pacers game. With Jokic and Porter out, Dozier will see a bump. The Jokic news might not change Dozier’s role much, but Porter’s absence surely has. Dozier had a 27% usage rate in his last game. Unfortunately, he could not hit anything (2-11 FG, 1-5 3P), but it’s nice to see a value player chucking threes and he added eight rebounds to buoy his fantasy performance against the Heat.
Other Options: Cedi Osman ($4,400)
Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks at New York Knicks, $12,300 — Playing Giannis on a back-to-back is not a necessary risk at this price point with 13 games on the slate. That means a player with slate-breaking upside will be low owned. Giannis is a slate breaker on normal days, but today he becomes “Death, destroyer of worlds.” The Bucks will be without Brook Lopez (Back) and Khris Middleton (Health and Safety Protocols) again, while the frontcourt he is facing will also be slim — Mitchell Robinson and Nerlens Noel are questionable for the Knicks.
Other Options: Domantas Sabonis ($10,200)
Jeff Green, Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers, $3,400 — Another Nugget? (Spoiler alert: there is one more after Green, also named Green) With Jokic and Porter out, the projected minutes increase for Green is one of the largest on the slate (18 mpg to a 24 minute projection — which seems awfully conservative). Not only are his minutes increasing, but so is his usage: 17% vs. Houston on Nov. 6 and 27% vs. Miami on Nov. 8. At this price, 25 minutes with a 20% usage rate from a consistent rebounder is close to a lock button play.
Other Options: Aaron Gordon ($5,200)
Evan Mobley, Cleveland Cavaliers vs. Washington Wizards, $7,000 — The No. 3 overall pick is in a great spot to have his breakout game. This is only the second home game in the last nine for the Cavaliers, so that will add a little extra motivation. However, the main priming is set up by the absence of Cavs stars — Kevin Love and Luari Markkanen are both out due to Health and Safety Protocols (both have missed the last three games). Over the last four games, Mobley has averaged 38.4 mpg with a 20% usage rate — well above his average minutes and usage over his first seven games. Mobley is headed in the right direction, as evidenced by his 49.3 DKFP outburst on Sunday at New York.
Other Options: Myles Turner ($6,900), Jarrett Allen ($7,500)
JaMychal Green, Denver Nuggets vs. Indiana Pacers, $3,200 — The Joker wasn’t joking around on Monday night, when he dropped Markieff Morris. With Nikola Jokic suspended for one game, JaMychal Green will likely absorb most of his minutes at center. JaMychal — not Jeff — has scored a 0.9 FPPM this season and 1.1 FPPM over the last five games. He should easily get 20 minutes of action and he’s facing a team that boosts PF/C production by 7%. Plus, the Pacers will likely struggle with the Denver altitude, making it even easier for Green to reach value.
Other Options: JaVale McGee ($4,200)
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