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Fantasy Basketball Picks: Heat vs. Lakers DraftKings NBA DFS Showdown Strategy for November 10

Garion Thorne preps you for Wednesday’s 10:00 p.m. ET contest between the Heat and the Lakers with game-script analysis and Captain’s Picks.

Charlotte Hornets v Los Angeles Lakers Photo by Chris Elise/NBAE via Getty Images

Considering I grew up in the sweet spot of the Kobe/Shaq rivalry, any contest between the Miami Heat and the Los Angeles Lakers brings back fond memories. I guess it helps that a lot of those mid-2000’s meetings took place on Christmas, but trust me, the actual games were pretty fun, too. Now it’s time for new beef. Maybe Russell Westbrook ($13,800) and Tyler Herro ($9,200; back)? It feels like those two dudes don’t get along, right?

Anyway, let’s break down tonight’s action from a Showdown perspective.

EDITOR’S NOTE: Heat C Bam Adebayo (knee) and PG/SG Tyler Herro (back) are available Wednesday vs. the Lakers.

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIA vs LAL)


SHOWDOWN STRATEGY

Captain’s Picks

Anthony Davis ($20,400 CP) - The price to Captain either Davis or Westbrook is astronomical, but also understandable. With LeBron James (abdomen) sidelined, it’s a two-pronged offensive attack in Los Angeles, as both Davis and Westbrook have carried usage rates well above 30% with James off the court so far in 2021-22. For sake of comparison, Carmelo Anthony ($8,200) is the only other Lakers asset with a usage rate above even 20% in that same scenario. So why lean Davis? First and foremost, the big man has simply been more economical than his teammate. Davis is averaging a team-best 1.47 DKFP per minute when James isn’t playing, while Westbrook’s 6.7 turnovers per 100 possessions is the highest mark among all qualified players in the NBA. There’s also the matter of whether or not Bam Adebayo ($10,400; knee) will be available. If the former lottery pick isn’t able to give it a go, Miami will be hard pressed to protect the paint against an opponent of Davis’ caliber.

Jimmy Butler ($18,600 CP) - Even with the addition of Kyle Lowry ($10,200) and the improved play of the aforementioned Herro, this is still Jimmy Butler’s team. Coming into Wednesday’s slate, Butler leads Miami in virtually every category of note, including minutes per game (35.1), usage rate (27.8%) and DKFP per minute (1.29). The All-Star is also first among the team’s rotational pieces in steal rate (3.0%), second in assist rate (26.9%) and fourth in total rebounding rate (9.2%). To be blunt, Butler just does a little of everything when he’s on the floor and that’s why he’s been able to register four 50.0 DKFP performances so far this season. With the Lakers always looking to push the pace — Los Angeles is second in the league in possession per 48 minutes (103.5) — tonight is looking like a spot where Butler can reach his ceiling. Plus, his upside would only improve if one or both of Herro and Adebayo is unable to play through their questionable tags.


Value UTIL Plays

Avery Bradley ($1,000) - The nice thing about a slate with so much star power and injury concern is that it’s not hard to find value. If anything, the challenge is more picking which of the many assets priced at the minimum is the best option. For instance, on the Lakers alone, we have Bradley, Wayne Ellington ($1,000) and Austin Reaves ($1,200; hamstring) all likely to log in excess of 20 minutes of action on Wednesday at a bargain basement salary. It’s actually been the rookie who has produced better than the veterans so far in 2021-22; however, with Reaves questionable to suit up against Miami, I’ll roll with the floor of Bradley, as the 30-year-old has managed at least 10.0 DKFP in all five of his starts. It might not seem like much, but with Davis or Butler requiring basically 40% of your salary cap, Bradley hitting 10x value at $1K is almost a necessity.

Editor’s Note: Heat SG/SF Max Strus (knee) has been ruled out for tonight’s game vs. the Lakers.

Max Strus ($1,000) - Speaking of viable assets at the absolute minimum, Strus is also in a great spot to provide value on Wednesday. The wing has missed Miami’s past four games with a knee issue, but if his probable designation is to be believed, Strus will be back in the fold against Los Angeles. Somewhat surprisingly, the Heat might actually need the 25-year-old. Miami’s injury report is lengthy coming into this matchup. P.J. Tucker ($2,000; shoulder) is questionable and Markieff Morris (neck) has already been ruled out, on top of the previously mentioned uncertainty surrounding Adebayo and Herro. I’d look for Strus to immediately step back into a 15-20 minute role, while someone like KZ Okpala ($1,000) could be a major factor, as well. We’ll just have to wait and see how the inactives shake out.


Fades

Kyle Lowry ($10,200) - There’s risk in fading Lowry. The veteran’s best three fantasy performances of the season have come in Miami’s past five games, and as a player who tends to adapt towards his surroundings, Lowry will certainly take on a larger offensive role if Adebayo or Herro is missing. However, at the end of the day, Lowry simply doesn’t offer the fantasy upside of Westbrook, Davis or Butler, and it’s virtually impossible to have all four in the same build. I’m fine overlooking an asset that’s failed to score 40.0 DKFP in seven of his nine starts in 2021-22 and one that’s also averaging less than 1.00 DKFP per minute played — especially with a price tag above $10K.


THE OUTCOME

This slate is begging for a “stars and scrubs” approach, and while injuries will end up dictating how much value is eventually available at the minimum, I think there will be enough to confidently Captain either Davis or Butler. As for the game itself, the Heat are far more equipped to deal with multiple injuries than the Lakers are. Between that and Los Angeles’ 2-6 ATS record at the Staples Center in 2021-22, I’ll side with Miami.

Final Score: Miami 110, Los Angeles 102

Set your DraftKings fantasy basketball lineups here: NBA Showdown $150K Fadeaway [$50K to 1st] (MIA vs LAL)


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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and customer (my username is theglt13) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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