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Fantasy Football Picks: Top DraftKings NFL DFS Targets, Values for Week 10

Stan Son gives his top studs and values at each position for Sunday’s main DraftKings NFL slate.

Week 10. Time to sing amen as we rise from the pigpen that was Week 9, ready to grind and shine once again. The Bears, Bengals, Giants and Texans are on their bye. As a result, there are 11 games on the main slate. Per DraftKings Sportsbook, there are three games with a total of at least 50 points — MIN/LAC (53), ATL/DAL (54.5) and TB/WAS (51). There are three double-digit favorites — ARI (-10) over CAR, IND (-10) over JAX and BUF (-12.5) over NYJ.

These are my early thoughts, but much of my lineup construction will depend on projected ownership numbers at the end of the week. That said, here are my studs and values for Sunday’s main DraftKings fantasy football slate.

Set your DraftKings fantasy football lineups here: NFL $3.5M Fantasy Football Millionaire [$1M to 1st + ToC Entry]



Quarterback

Stud

Tom Brady, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team, $7,600 — The Bucs have the highest pass rate in the league at 67%. Brady has attempted at least 40 passes in six games this season with two of those over 50. He’s produced at least 30 DKFP in five games with a high of 40.74. Now he faces a team that is 31st in pass-defense DVOA and 10th in rush defense DVOA, so the path of least resistance is through the air, which is the path most traveled by Tampa Bay. Washington is eighth in adjusted sack rate but the Bucs are third in pass blocking according to PFF. The Bucs are implied for 30 points according to DraftKings Sportsbook, so points should be scored.

Other Option – Josh Allen ($7,900), Justin Herbert ($7,300), Dak Prescott ($6,900)

Value

Taylor Heinicke, Washington Football Team vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,400 — The Bucs will likely score a ton of points in this one, so Washington will have to be aggressive to maintain contact. Ron Rivera doesn’t turtle up and plays to win so that is good for the prospects of Heinicke. Now, whether Heinicke is good or not is another question. He has two games with fewer than 200 yards passing on the season and has produced fewer than 20 DKFP five times. That said, he’s attempted 39, 37, 39 and 41 passes in the last four games and a number close to 40 should be in the range of outcomes as the Bucs are fourth in rush defense DVOA.

Other Option – Carson Wentz ($5,900)


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Running Back

Stud

Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis Colts vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $8,100 — Despite not receiving 20 carries in any game this season, Taylor has been an absolute beast, especially over the last six games. He’s gone for at least 20 DKFP in all of those contests with three over 30. He has three 100-yard games and has scored in six straight with two games with two TDs. He’s also received at least two targets in each game. Now, the path of least resistance is through the air as the Jags are dead-last in pass defense DVOA, so it’s within the range of outcomes that the receivers and tight ends score touchdowns. That said, Taylor will get his opportunities, and with the Colts favored by 10 points, the game script should be a favorable one.

Other Option – Najee Harris ($7,900), Austin Ekeler ($7,600)

Value

JD McKissic, Washington Football Team vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers, $5,200 – I wish McKissic was a little cheaper but it is what it is. He is a pass-catching back who will get the token carry from time to time. He has three games with at least 10 targets and has gone over 80 yards in two games. The Football Team will likely be chasing points in this one with an elevated pass rate due to the stout Bucs run defense. He’s garnered a snap rate in the 40% range for most of the season and could see closer to 50% in this one. McKissic has scored at least 15 DKFP in four games this season with a high of 20.3. In those games, he caught six, five, eight and eight passes.

Other Options – Alex Collins ($5,200)


Wide Receiver

Stud

Chris Godwin, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team, $7,100 — Antonio Brown is unlikely to play in this one so the passing pie should be concentrated once again. The Football Team has been exploitable through the air and Brady should be able to carve them up. Over the last two games, Godwin has received 11 and 12 targets and converted those into eight catches for 111 yards and eight catches for 140 yards with a touchdown in each game. That was good for 28.1 and 31 DKFP.

Other Options – Stefon Diggs ($7,500), CeeDee Lamb ($7,000), DK Metcalf ($6,800), Michael Pittman ($6,300)

Value

Tyler Johnson, Tampa Bay Buccaneers @ Washington Football Team, $3,300 – Johnson has played in 67% and 64% of the snaps over the last two weeks. He’s received two and six targets and caught two and five passes for 16 and 65 yards respectively. He did put up 11.5 DKFP last week with 13 yards per reception. The ceiling is limited but he’s on the field and isn’t a complete zero. Plus, he’s near the bare minimum.

Other Options – Cedrick Wilson ($3,500)


Tight End

Stud

Kyle Pitts, Atlanta Falcons @ Dallas Cowboys, $5,800 – It’s been an up and down season for Pitts. He got out of the gates slowly, hauling in fewer than 40 yards in three of his first four games. Then came a two-game stretch in which he went over 100 yards in each and scored his lone touchdown. He followed that up with a two-catch, 13-yard game. The targets have been there, as he has 58 on the season with seven, six, eight, 10 and nine over the last five games. The Cowboys are implied for 31.25 points so the Falcons will likely have to throw, throw and throw some more. Dallas is dead-last in DVOA against tight ends so the matchup is a good one.

Other Options – Dalton Schultz ($5,000)

Value

Tyler Conklin, Minnesota Vikings @ Los Angeles Chargers, $3,400 – Over the last two games, Conklin has received seven targets and caught five passes in each of those contests. The Chargers are 30th in DVOA against tight ends. Conklin has three games with at least 10 DKFP and a high of 20. He has five red-zone targets on the season.

Other Options – Pat Freiermuth ($3,900)


Defense/Special Teams

Stud

Colts DST vs. Jacksonville Jaguars, $3,600 – The Colts are only 26th in pass-defense DVOA and 29th in adjusted sack, but they are second in rush defense DVOA and are favored by 10 points so there should be plenty of dropbacks for the Jaguars in this one. That means more opportunities for sacks and interceptions. On the season, the unit has 20 sacks, 10 fumble recoveries, 10 interceptions and one touchdown. They have three games with at least 10 DKFP.

Other Option – Steelers DST ($4,100)

Value

Vikings DST @ Los Angeles Chargers, $2,300 – Minnesota is third in pass-defense DVOA and third in adjusted sack rate. The Chargers have an explosive offense that will likely be able to move the ball, but they are only 18th in pass blocking according to PFF. On the season, the Vikings’ DST has 27 sacks, four fumble recoveries, seven interceptions and two touchdowns.

Other Option – Seahawks DST ($2,500)

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I am a promoter at DraftKings and am also an avid fan and user (my username is sontzu) and may sometimes play on my personal account in the games that I offer advice on. Although I have expressed my personal view on the games and strategies above, they do not necessarily reflect the view(s) of DraftKings and do not constitute a representation that any particular strategy will guarantee success. All customers should use their own skill and judgment in building lineups. I may also deploy different players and strategies than what I recommend above. I am not an employee of DraftKings and do not have access to any non-public information.


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